UNITED STATES-INDIA STRAEGIC PARTNERSHIP TOUCHES NEW HEIGHTS 2020

The China Threat factor plaguing the security and stability of Indo Pacific Asia's vast landmass and maritime expanses has galvanised United States and India to touch new heights in 2020 in the two decades old US-India Strategic Partnership which evolved at the turn of the 21st Century.

The US-India Strategic Partnership in 2020 without the trappings of a formal military alliance and institutional mechanisms has yet all the mechanisms in the form of a series of " Defence Agreements" signed by both countries enabling and facilitating a wide spectrum of military cooperation and coordination between United States and India and their Armed Forces.

These Defence Agreements range from BECA (Basic Exchange& Cooperation Agreement); LEMOA ( Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement); to COMCASA (Communications Compatibility & Security Agreement) encompassing sharing of Geospatial Intelligence for precision targeting of Indian, use of each others logistics bases and facilities and facilitate United States to provide encrypted communications equipment.

Overarching the above are the Annual 2+2 Meets of the Foreign and Defence Ministers Dialogue for mutual discussion on security issues and defence exchanges cooperation. The Third Annual Dialogue is scheduled for the next week in New Delhi.

This year's Dialogue Meet will be significant as it comes against the backdrop of China's military clashes with India in Eastern Ladakh, South China Sea escalation by China and China's threatening and aggressive provocations against Taiwan.

Significantly, QUAD Initiative hat represents most intensely the new strategic heights that India has touched in US-India Strategic Partnership because it transcends the bilateral US-India security cooperation and extends to Multilateral Naval Cooperation between India and United States Indo Pacific Allies comprising Japan and Australia.

Concluding, suffice it to state, that in view of the burgeoning China Threat to Indo Pacific Security and Stability, United States and India have drawn closer to forge institutional mechanisms for greater coordination of their strategic convergences posed by China's recent military expansionist impulses.

In terms of perspectives it can be asserted that viewing the QUAD Initiative as a trend-setting indicator that binds India to the United States, Japan and Australia in 2020 inherently carries promises of the emergence of an "Asian NATO' with China intent on military aggrandisement regardless of military consequences which could rebound on its strategic waywardness.

 

 

 

JAPAN'S STRAEGIC CALCULUS IN SOUTH EAST ASIA PRIORITISES VIETNAM AND INDONESIA

South East Asia has traditionally figured high in Japan's strategic calculus for decades due to its geostrategic location astride the South China Sea through which pass Japan's lifelines of economic survival---the Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) which traverse the South China Sea.

Not surprisingly therefore that the new Japanese Prime Minister Suga's first maiden foreign policy visit starts with visits to two major countries of South  East Asia----Vietnam and Indonesia.

Vietnam and Indonesia by virtue of their geographical location and spread virtually dominate large swathes of the South China Sea and more significantly when the South China Sea takes an Eastward turn towards Singapore and Straits of Malacca.

Vietnam has been for long subjected to China's military aggression and occupation of Vietnamese Islands in South China Sea, moreso, after Chinese President Xi Jinping assumed power in China. China continues relentlessly with its political and military coercion of Vietnam and military confrontation with Vietnam in South China Sea.

Indonesia till recently was a mute spectator of China's predatory aggression in South China Sea against the Philippines and Vietnam. In recent months China commenced repetition of its predatory moves in South China Sea against Indonesia also. Startled by China's menacing moves into maritime areas of Indonesia, the nation has been forced to approach the United Nations on the threat from China. Indonesia is the largest country in South East Asia with sizeable Armed Forces.

Comparatively, Japan's foreign policy prime focus in South East Asia has been on Vietnam even when United States had not established full diplomatic relations with Vietnam.

Japan-Vietnam relations in 2020 can be stated as being comprehensive encompassing all domains from political, economic and military.

Vietnam's centrality in Japan's South East Asian policies stand that much more amplified with the China Threat manifesting itself menacingly in South China Sea against Vietnam and the China Threat to Japanese Senkaku Islands in East China Sea. Strong strategic convergences exist today between Japan and Vietnam.

Besides sizeable Japanese economic investments in Vietnam there has been a growing trend in Japan-Vietnam security cooperation in terms of Japan aiding Vietnam's military -capacity building to face China Threat. in South China Sea. Japanese Navy on South China Sea naval patrols with US Navy call on Vietnamese Navy major naval base at Cam Ranh Bay.

Japanese PM Suga's forthcoming visit to Vietnam besides signalling Japan's intentions to strategically invest in Vietnam in relation to China Threat to Japan's SLOCs is likely to focus heavily on enhanced  security cooperation in backroom discussions.

Indonesia is also critical for Japan's security for the same reasons as outlined above. Even though Indonesia has yet to face the full fury of the China Threat like Vietnam, recent events may prompt Indonesia to be more open and receptive to security initiatives with Japan and the United States.

One can therefore hope that Japanese Prime Minister Suga's visits to Japan and Indonesia will be productive visits especially in relation to addressing mutual security concerns.

In Conclusion, it can be asserted that South East Asia Region  as a whole figures strongly in strategic convergences of United States and Japan in relation to China Threat. Both the United States and Japan put together have the Will and Capacity to provide South East Asia an existential counterweight against the China Threat.

 

VIETNAM MODEL OF CHECKMATING CHINA DESIRABLE FOR ASEAN STRATEGIC FORMULATIONS

Vietnam significantly stands out as one ASEAN Nation which historically and contemporaneously has withstood and checkmated Chinese aggression against its sovereignty and territorial integrity despite China's preponderant superiorities in power and military potential.

In the last half a century spanning  both the 20th and 21st Century, Vietnam first repulsed and inflicted heavy casualties on Chinese Regular Military Formations which attacked Vietnam on its Northern Borders with Communist China.

In the last two decades China has persistently indulged in maritime aggression against Vietnam in South China Sea but with limited success despite the fact that till lately the United States, Western European Major Powers and Asian Major Powers like Japan and India were still not actively alive to China's military aggression in South China Sea.

ASEAN Nations stood significantly divided and shirked from outright condemnation of China for its military aggression, military adventurism and coercion against ASEAN Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines.

Major ASEAN Nations like Indonesia and Malaysia were notable "Fence Sitters" and shirked from forthright condemnation of China till lately when China blatantly intruded aggressively in their maritime domains too. Both have approached the United Nations for intervention.

ASEAN Nations as a regional grouping need to recognise that the United Nations is toothless when it comes to strong actions against China.

Further, ASEAN Nations need to recognise that China in its current mood of military expansionism on its peripheries both on land and on seas is defiant of the United Nations and all International Conventions governing the South China Sea.

So what options are available to ASEAN Nations to checkmate China from wanton aggression in the South China Sea?

ASEAN Nations need to adopt the 'Vietnam Model' as part of its regional strategy of checkmating China before it further endangers security and stability of South East Asia.

Firstly, ASEAN needs to recognise the stark reality that Vietnam recognised decades back that China is not a 'Benign Stakeholder' in ASEAN security and stability. China as a 'Revisionist Power' is overall a 'Disruptionist Power' bent on converting South East Asia and its maritime domains as its strategic backyard under Chinese hegemony.

ASEAN Nations must next recognise that China is not amenable to any peaceful dialogue processes or conflict resolution mechanisms. Vietnam learnt this reality decades back and formulated its China-strategy accordingly.

Vietnam even when US and Western Nations had not got involved actively in checkmating China actively in South China Sea managed and faced China with traditional determined robustness of national character in not submitting tamely to Chinese aggression. Vietnam fought back tenaciously with the resources that it had.

United States . France, UK , Australia, Japan and India impressed with Vietnam's determined face-off against China were drawn to Vietnam's side for reasons of not only global geopolitics but also that Vietnam was the nucleus around which any  Indo Pacific security template could be based.

Vietnam also recognised in the last decade or so that an overbearing China hell-bent on military expansionism at the expense of its smaller and comparatively less powerful nations now needed an "External Strategic Ballast" to deter China.

It is with this realisation that Vietnam incrementally opened itself to the United States, Japan, India and Australia both politically and strategically.

Today Navy Ships from all of the above countries on South China Sea patrols and naval exercises stage through the strategic Vietnam Navy Base of Cam Ranh Bay.

From the above brief recount of Vietnam strategic realisations  emerge lessons for the ASEAN Nations  Group as a whole to craft their China-Strategy, namely:

• ASEAN Nations need a 'United Regional Strategy' to deter China from further predatory adventurism against ASEAN  members sovereignty
• ASEAN as a first step recommended in an earlier Blog must operationalize Joint ASEAN Navies patrols in South China Sea.
• ASEAN Nations must put on fast-track capacity-building programmes for their Navies with special reference to submarines, ASW capabilities and Ant-Ship missiles.
• ASEAN needs to put into place a 'Joint Logistics Exchange Agreements where ASEAN Navies' ships can use each others naval logistics facilities.
• ASEAN can no longer continue to be 'ambivalent' about the 'China Threat' looming over South East Asia. No scope exists for dithering or ''Stand Alone' China Strategies by individual ASEAN Nations

Most significantly, ASEAN Nations have been left with no choice by China but to align themselves with the United States which alone can provide the 'Strategic Ballast' to deter China from DISRUPTING security and stability in the South China Sea and South East Asia as a whole.

Concluding one could leave a thought behind and that is with China once again on a wild rampage in South China Sea impacting South East Asia security, this is an opportune time once again to resurrect the 'Five Power Defence Agreement' which was operative in the 1960s of last Century as an 'ASEAN Defence Agreement'.

Vietnam as the current Chair in ASEAN may like to lead the way.