CHINA AND INDIA IN A 'STATE OF WAR" AS INDIA RESISTS CHINESE MILITARY EXPANSIONISM IN EASTERN LADAKH

The Himalayan Borders of India resting on China Occupied Tibet in September 2020 is witnessing China and India locked in a "Sate of War" as India confronts massed Chines Army military formations with matching military strength to oppose China's intended  military expansionism into Indian Territory across the Line of Actual Control (LAC). 

India with extensive Border Defence infrastructural improvements facilitating rapid military responses and logistics capabilities to sustain enhanced troop levels in Eastern Ladakh and on the remainder of LAC with China Occupied Tibet has sent 'Unmistakable Signals of Intent" to China that it will no longer yield to Chinese incremental nibbling attempts to alter the LAC  as per Chinese claims.

India also has signaled to China that it has firm intentions not to scale down its enhanced troop levels even in the harsh winter months that will follow for the next 4-6 months.

China now is in a dilemma as to how to contend with India's unprecedented resolve to indulge in a 'Military Face-off ' with China, without 'loss of face'.

In compulsive Chinese political and military arrogance ever since Chinese Communist Party imposed its authoritarian rule over China, instead of reconciliation and a return to respecting over half a dozen Boundary Peace & Tranquility Agreements" signed since 1993, China has resorted now to dictate India to accept China's November 7 1959 Claim Line in Eastern Ladakh. 

The above claims stand accompanied by China's threats that any Indian negative responses to China's new Claim Line exposes India to a full-blown 'War with China'.

India has firmly rejected the new Claim Lines demanded by China further signaling that India is prepared for all military options including a 'War with China'.

Asia and Indo Pacific Region nations need now to prepare for the eventuality of a full-blown China-India War anytime with China not ceasing its military provocations to alter the LAC to its dictates and India firmly resolved to checkmate China and stop it in its aggressive designs.

China-India War when it occurs would under present geopolitical scenario will inevitably draw-in other Major Powers disgusted with China's military expansionist policies. China would be seriously disadvantaged in such a scenario.

JAPAN'S FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICIES CONTINUITY UNDER NEW PRIME MINISTER SUGA ASSURED

Japan's turbulent security environment demands imperatives of "Continuity"  in its foreign and security policies even with the assumption of power by a new Prime Minister Yoshide  Suga recently.

In 2020, the most significant challenge facing Japan is the 'China Threat' which has reared its ugly head in the entire Indo Pacific Region expanse stretching from Japan to India.

Japanese PM Abe who demitted office paving the way for election of PM Suga had established a vast diplomatic network and Strategic Partnerships intended to checkmate China. In tandem, Japan under PM Abe had taken  fast-track up gradation of Japan's Armed Forces, both for defence of Japan and as conventional deterrence against China and North Korea.

Going by reports emanating from Tokyo there is a general consensus amongst policy analysts focussing on Japanese policies that PM Suga would provide that essential 'critical input' of 'continuity' in Japanese foreign and security policy formulations adopted in the last eight years.

PM Suga before assuming office of Prime Minister was for four years outgoing PM Abe's 'Chief Lieutenant' and part of his decision-making loop on foreign and security policies.

In the field of  continuity in Japanese foreign policies the same is assured by PM Suga retaining Foreign Minister Motegi. Foreign Minister Motegi, known for his close links with the US Administration, besides being a Harvard Graduate, would be a valuable asset for the new Japanese Cabinet to provide continuity with the United States -Japan Security Alliance and al so Japan's Special Strategic Partnerships with Australia and India.

 What needs noting is the significant change in the Defence Minister's portfolio where outgoing Japanese PM Abe's younger biological brother, Nobuo Kishi has been appointed as the new Defence Minister.

Defence Minister Kishi besides being attuned and in line with Japan's policies of up gradation of Japanese military build-up and deterrence capabilities against China is also noted for had-line views on development of Japan's 'independent strike capabilities'  !! 

 Japan's participation along with US Navy in South China Sea presence would therefore see no dilution. This would be heartening for South East Asian nations like the Philippines and Vietnam. 

In terms of overall analysis, it can be safely asserted that while a change of guard has taken place in Japan with PM Suga assuming the top slot in Japan's political hierarchy, it is strategically gratifying to note that "Continuity" in Japan's foreign policies and security policies would continue with the vigour of the last eight years or so.

Japan is not only the 'Sheet Anchor' of the United States security template in Western Pacific against China but also the Eastern Anchor along with India as the Western Anchor against the military expansionism of China in the vast Indo Pacific Region expanse.

 

JAPAN'S END OF PRIME MIISTER ABE'S ERA-REFLECTIONS

Japan's longest serving PM Shinzo Abe's resignation on health grounds last week marks the end of an eventful era in terms of game-changing policy initiations pertaining to Japan's national security postures and diplomatic overdrive to add substance to expanding Japan's diplomatic profile befitting a Major Power in Indo Pacific Region.

PM Abe is placed by me in the mould of past Japanese Prime Ministers like Nakasone and Koizumi who similarly played a significant role in beefing up Japan's military capacities and capabilities besides adding value to more than half a century old US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty.

In my estimation Japanese Prime Ministers Nakasone, Koizumi and Shinzo Abe were cast in the true Samurai mould ----determined warriors sensitive to Japan's National Honour and Sovereignty against all threats.

There was nothing apologetic about these three-named Japanese Prime Ministers in enhancing Japan's military and security profiles against evolving threats in Indo Pacific mainly emerging from China. This in the face of binding restrictions of Japan's Peace Constitution.

In the second decade of the 21st Century as the China Threat assumed alarming contours directly threatening  Japan's national security both in East China Sea over Japan's Senkaku Islands illegally claimed by China and China's military  expansionism in the South China Sea threatening Japan's economic and energy lifelines, PM Abe hyperactively but in muted style quietly enhanced the military capability of Japanese Armed Forces to deter China from both political and military coercion of Japan

To supplement the above,PM Abe strengthened further Japan's security ties with the United States and as evidence of his quiet but effective diplomatic skills PM Abe forged a strong personal relationship with US President Trump.

In India PM Abe will be long remembered for upgrading the Japan- India relationship along with Indian PM Narendra Modi to a Global Special Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The personal chemistry between PM Abe of Japan and Indian PM Modi has put into place a vibrant security-oriented Japan-India relationship with shared and convergent strategic views on Indo Pacific security threats and global threats.

PM Abe also was in the process of effective consultations with Russian President Putin to smoothen the legacy irritants that have impeded strong political relations between Japan and Russia.

Inn effect, the vibrant Japan-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was a notice to China that it had to contend now not only with Japan and India as single-nation entities but as an Indo Pacific or Asian Coalition of Asia's two Major Emerged Powers with shred strategic convergences on the China Threat.

PM Abe leaves behind a strong and enduring legacy for his successor PM Suga in terms of Japan's enhanced diplomatic and military profiles and policies to build upon and provide continuity to Japan's national sensitivities on its National Honour and Sovereignty.

CHINA PERSISTS IN CONFLICT ESCALATION ON INDIA'S HIMALAYAN BORDERS WITH CHINA OCCUPIED TIBET

China's propensity to impose its will by use of military force or political coercion on its neighbours whether on disputed land borders or maritime boundaries is a harsh reality for South East Asia nations as manifested in its illegal sovereignty claims over South China Sea.

China was so impelled because South East nations primarily Vietnam and the Philippines were smaller nations as compared to China's brute military might.

China was also so impelled by the fact hat the United States previous Presidents did not call-off China's bullying bluffs against its weaker neighbours.

China in 2020 has now chosen to display the same propensity against India's Himalayan land borders with China Occupied Tibet which China disputes.

Since April 2020 China has embarked on a process of altering the uneasy military confrontationist status quo on India's Eastern Ladakh Borders by the same 'salami-slicing' tactics that it so successfully employed in the South China Sea.

China was in a rude shock when its military expansionism on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) was successfully checkmated by the combat-proven Indian Army. As reflected in an earlier Blog on this BlogSpot, Indian Army with a loss of 20 Bravehearts killed nearly three times 60 Chinese PLA soldiers, and notably without use of fire-arms in hand to hand unarmed combat.

China in its wake at high-level diplomatic and military dialogues in the wake of the above agreed on disengagement on the LAC and de-escalation of military confrontation.

But China as is its wont experienced by both India and South East nations treacherously went back on its commitments and stealthily commenced operations to occupy some dominating features overlooking the LAC which were not on its side. 

India this time reversed roles and Indian Army in swift pre-emptive military operations occupied the China-coveted dominating mountain tops.

In September 2020, India's borders in Ladakh resting on China Occupied Tibet are witnessing intense military confrontation with India having pumped in Indian Army Formations to match Chinese PLA military increase in force levels. 

China miscalculated India's resolve under leadership of PM Narendra Modi and the Indian Army in a high state of War Preparedness no longer starved of funds for the same. Unlike 1962, Indian Air Force stands also deployed on front-line Air Bases signalling intent that India to defend its sovereignty will not hesitate to resort to air warfare

Overall, China-India military confrontation in Eastern Ladakh is in a tinder-box explosive situation as China now is at a loss as to how to' Save Face' after igniting its military misadventure against India.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

INDIA'S DOUBLE MILITARY AND DIGITALSTRIKES AGAINST CHINA'S MILITARY ADVENTURISM AGAINST INDIA SEPTEMBER 2020

India under indomitable leadership of PM Narendra Modi has in September 2020 set an unprecedented example for future Indian Prime Ministers and more importantly for Indo Pacific nations, especially ASEAN countries, that China's military adventurism against its neighbours has not only to be stood upto but also pushed back.

Since April 2020 more noticeably China was engaged in altering the territorial and military status quo along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh to add more depth to military vulnerabilities to its Aksai Chin Highway built through illegally annexed China Occupied Aksai Chin of India's Ladakh Union Territory during Nehruvian era.

The above resulted in the first ever direct military clashes after four decades at Galwan in which Indian Army lost 20 of its Bravehearts including the intrepid Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar but not before killing nearly 50 Chinese PLA soldiers. China first denied so on its losses but TV visuals of Chines tombstones in that area were a giveaway.

In its wake China adopted a duplicitous strategy of diplomatic and military dialogues with India for de-escalation on the borders of China Occupied Tibet on one hand but in tandem resorting to surreptiously 'Salami Slicing' tactics, (reminiscent of its South China Sea military adventurism) to occupy dominating heights in area of Southern Pang gong Tso Lake---this again to change the status quo to their advantage.

Indian Army was alive and prepared to offset China's treachery and on night of August 29/30 pre-empted Chinese PLA military moves by military actions both in occupation of dominating heights and also pushing back Chinese PLA positions entrenched in the buffer zones along the Line of Actual Control.

Some reports also indicate that in the process of the above-said military operations the Indian Army has captured 25-30 Chinese PLA soldiers.

The Indian Government  under PM Narendra  Modi alongside launched a 'digital strike' against China by banning 118 more Chinese  Apps flourishing in India including PUBG. With Indian viewers contributing the bulk of China's revenues from Chinese Apps this latest 'digital strike' was significant.

India thereby signalled to China  that China's duplicitous military adventurism against India which seems to have acquired pace ad momentum under Chinese President Xi Jinping will be firmly met strongly by India adopting a Dual Strategy of Indian Army military face-offs and also economically by hurting China where it hurts most---economic losses accruing from revenue s from Indian markets. 

Contextually, the ASEAN nations most affected by China's military expansionism violating their national sovereignties' and maritime possessions in South China Sea should borrow a leaf from India's current firm resolve to not only face China squarely but also with resolve push China to 'BACKOFF'.

Easier said than done but then ASEAN has to make a beginning by both military firmness and cutting off China's economic supply chains. As reflected in an earlier Paper on this Blog, the first step is Joint Naval Patrols by ASEAN Navies in South China Sea.

China-India military confrontation is there for a long haul and it seems that the Modi Government is prepared for it backed by strong domestic political support of the Indian people at large who seceverely DISTRUST CHINA ever since 1962 stab in the back.