Saturday, August 29, 2020

SOUTH CHINA SEA HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE UNITED STATE-CHINA ARMED CONFLICT

The South China Sea  is currently hearing incessantly the sounds of 'Drums of War' as China instead of submitting to international diplomatic norms of conflict-resolution is indulging in extreme military  provocations of ballistic missiles firings in this China Occupied Maritime Expanse to shoo  away two US Navy Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups presence in the region.

United States naval presence in the South China Sea along with Navies of US-allied Nations is aimed at ensuring the freedom of movement ad navigation of international shipping against Chinese Navy interference and coercion.

Today the scenario that is emerging in the South China Sea which connects the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean is one of 'Clash of Wills' between the United States and a China not only reluctant but also defiant to let go of its illegal hold over the South China Sea.

'Clash of Wills' between the United States as the sole Superpower in the world and the predominant Power in the Indo Pacific Region and China as the 'Revisionist Power' seeking political and military exit of the United States from the Region inherently carries within it the seeds of armed conflict.

The US-China 'Clash of Wills' witnesses' the ranging of United States asymmetrical military might which has ensured Indo Pacific security and stability for over seven decades with the heady newly-created exponential growing Chinese Military Power impelled by revisionist impulses.

China seems to be oblivious of United States vast asymmetrical superiority in geopolitical and military might of the United States over China. Mere possession by China of a vast, but inferior, nuclear weapons arsenal and missiles arsenal does not endow China with  a fighting chance to prevail militarily over the United Stes or deter it from enforcing the global writ on the illegality of China's untenable hold over the South Chia Sea.

China seems to be in a reckless downslide of military adventurism and expansionism on all its peripheries. China today especially after its criminal callousness in relation to global spared of China Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic has been pushed into even greater diplomatic and economic isolation.

The above combined with ethnic genocidal suppression in Xingjian and Tibet, suppression in Hong Kong and Taiwan as a 'critical 'Core Point' heading for explosion is likely to push China into further military adventurism to divert growing domestic political dissent against Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China is therefore likely to whip up emotive Han Nationalism domestic sentiments by military adventurism against Taiwan and in South China Sea. 

Both on Taiwan and in the South China Sea  Chinese military adventurism will run headlong against United States recently awakened political will and resolve  that China needs now to be checkmated before it assumes more threatening contours against the United States national interests and the security of United States Allies and Strategic Partners in the Indo Pacific.

With such a contextual backdrop as outline above, it can be asserted that China is heading towards an inevitable military conflict with the United States in the South China Sea and over Taiwan too.

The South China Sea in the coming months could most likely witness increasing China-United States clashes ranging from incidents at sea to even  United States major military operations against some of China's illegally constructed "Artificial Islands' with military fortifications to establish 'Full Spectrum' military dominance over the South China Sea.

In this ensuing likely 'Clash of Wills' between China and the United States in the South China Sea, irrespective of US Presidential Elections November 2020 outcome, no second guesses are required as to who will prevail.

 

 

1 comment:

General Rajinder said...

Time world realises menace of Chinese belligerence. After unleashing of Chinese corona, it shamelessly exploiting humanity health emergency. In terms of friends, it has rogue N Korea, Pak & Turkey. US led democratic world alliance must act to contain China. Covert means must be implied to create implosion due severe internal problems on economy, unemployment, Uighur, Tiber< Hongkong & numerous other issues
Compliments to the author for clearly identifying issues & way ahead.