INDIA'S 2025 GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVES TO PAUSE US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP AND QUAD SECURITY INITIATIVE

India's foreign policy cannot operate in frozen molds of past geopolitical constructs but be reset to keep pace with unfolding geopolitics. United States Trump 2.0 Administration transactional pivot to Pakistan in complete disregard of India's strategic sensitivities dictate geopolitical impetrative to press the "Pause Button" on US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD Security Initiative.

On Pakistan, US President Trump2.0 has given enough indicators in last five months of spinning past US strategic policies on its head. President Trump 2.0 "Sanctified Pakistan's State Sponsored Terrorism" against India and "Beatified Pakistan Army Chief as Patron Saint of Washington" during a White House lunch hosted for General Munir.

 Elected leaders of Pakistan were missing from the White House Lunch. Is President Trump 2.0 vying for a "Regime Change" in Pakistan?

On China, too, President Trump 2.0 has exhibited propensity to temporize with China's strategic inclinations in the pursuit of 'trade deals'.

On both counts stated above, President Trump2.0 has cavorted with India's implacable enemies which carry geopolitical and strategic costs for India.

It needs to be recalled that the underpinnings of the US-India Strategic Partnership spanning four US Presidents of different political dispositions was the joint convergence between the two Nations on the 'China Threat'.

Similarly, it was President Trump 1.0 who actively resurrected the dormant QUAD after eight years of dormancy.

Implicit for India in both Secuity Relationships was the hovering factor of the 'Pakistan Threat' being automatically taken care of by US-India convergences on the 'China Threat'.

In 2025, nothing has changed on the 'China Threat' persisting in threat perceptions of both United States and India. On the contrary, the 'China Threat' has assumed more alarming proportions.

President Trump 2.0 political strategies on China and Pakistan, going by his public utterances, betray that when the chips would be down, the United States Trump 2.0 Administration would give India a 'transactional pass'.

The hallmark of President Trump 2.0 is geopolitical signaling with strategic ambiguities and this applies to his current approaches to India.

The crucial question in mid-2025 is therefore as to whether to honor Indian commitments to past US Presidents on the US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD, no longer perceptionaly validated by President Trump 2.0 ongoing policy stances on Pakistan and China?

'It takes two to do a tango' is a well-known precept. When President Trump 2.0 wants to "Tango" with Pakistan and China, going by his political signaling, India should not foreclose its geopolitical options of being "frozen" in past commitments no longer appealing to President Trump 2.0

Concluding, India would be geopolitically and strategically wise in tapping the" Pause Button" on both the US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD.

US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP2.0: INDIAN STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT VISIBLY SETTING-IN 2025

US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership laboriously crafted over 25 years, with bipartisan support both in United States and India is visibly under strain in mid-2025, resulting from President Trump's insensitivity to Indian strategic sentiments, by pivoting back transactionally towards Pakistan, in middle of Indian OP SINDOOR overwhelming military success in decapitation of Pakistan. 

Perceptionally, India at large, its strategic community and its highly nationalistic Middle Class, are deeply incensed by President Trump's hyperbolic assertions on Pakistan, in wake of India's deep airstrikes against Pakistan's critical airbases including those noted as hosting Pakistan's nuclear weapons. 

Indian Government responses maintained dignified diplomatic silence letting TV visuals and media responses to project realities. However, sensing India's public opinion outrage at President Trump's invalidated assertions, PM Modi publicly asserted, without naming President Trump. that 'there was no third-party mediation.'

India at large was incensed when soon after India had struck Pakistan's nuclear strike bases, President Trump drew "Strategic Equivalence" between Pakistan and India. It was akin to President Trump drawing 'strategic equivalence between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah. Preposterous!!!

President Trump did not stop there. When Pakistan sued for ceasefire, soon after Pak airbases hosting nuclear weapons were struck, President Trump to garner self-acclaim, asserted that it was 'he' who had pressurized Pakistan and India for a ceasefire. The facts, as the world could see, are otherwise.

This leads to the crucial question as to why President Trump "reversed gears" at height of OP SINDOOR of initial US support for India's right to strike at terror threats?

Joining the dots, two US 'transactional tactically political expediency" motivations led to President Trump's "reversing gears " in support of Pakistan. The first was geopolitical, and the second motive borne out by media reports with Pakistani visuals related to Trump family high-level business deals with Pakistan hierarchy.

United States aware that it had convergent aims with Israel to strike at Iran's nuclear weapons strike capabilities foresaw the military eventualities of possible use of Pakistan as a springboard for US military intervention in Iran should a wider conflict escalate in the Middle East.

President Trump's family business interests seem to have come into play as the second motive played out by Pakistan media visuals. This related to his son and son-in-law's visit to Pakistan, coincidental in timings, with India's OP SINDOOR operations, wherein the Trump family business groups signed a multi-million crypto-currency deal with Pakistan. Pakistan visuals showed the Trump family with Pakistan Army Chief General Munir and Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif.

Concluding, while India has kept its commitments to the US-India Strategic Partnership "intact", the United States credibility as a "Reliable Strategic Partner of India" has come under severe perceptional strain in India.

Strategic course-corrections imperatives to contain growing denouement in India lies with the United States, specifically with President Trump to dispel perceptional misgivings his assertions have generated.

 

CHINA BIGGEST GEOPOLITICAL AND STRATEGIC LOSER IN INDIA'S MILITARY INCAPACITATION 'OP SINDOOR' STRIKES ON PAKISTAN MAY 2025: VENGEANCE FOLLOWS

 China perecptionally has suffered significant geopolitical and strategic losses in the wake of India's OP-SINDOOR incapacitating military strikes on Pakistan's 'Full Spectrum' offensive capabilities which rested on China-aided Nuclear Weapons, Chinese Combat Fighter Planes and China-installed Pakistan Air Defense Grid.

In one shattering blow, India's deep offensive Air Force strikes in Pakistan's Heartland of Punjab, had deflated Pakistan Army's bloated image of nuclear and conventional parity with Subcontinental India.

Pakistan's significant losses were both military and psychological.

 But China as Pakistan's preferred source of Pakistan's WMD and conventional arsenal suffered more significant perceptional geopolitical and strategic losses arising from Indian OP-SINDOOR military strikes on Pakistan.

Geopolitically, China's intrusive political and military stances in South Asia stand impacted because China failed to provide Pakistan with its 'Countervailing Power' to deter India from OP-SINDOOR crippling strikes on Pakistan's offensive capabilities.

South Asia Nations, both 'China-Clients' and 'Fence Sitters' would now need to recalibrate their playing the 'China Card' against India. If China could not stand actively in support of China's significant Chinese-aided 'Spoiler State" of Pakistan, would China actively support smaller South Asian States to withstand India's predominant military might?

China for long has financed and equipped Islamist Jihadi terrorist groups all over the world. In case of Pakistan, the Islamic Jihadi militias sponsored by Pakistan Army were not only aided by China materially but "protected" at United Nations from being UN-designated as Global Terrorists.

India's destruction of the Headquarters of these Pakistan Army proxy militias at Bahawalnagar and Muridke would be a sober deterrent to their terrorist operations against India.

Strategically, the myth of Chinese advanced military equipment superiority stands crumbled in wake of India's OP-SINDOOR offensive operations. Indian Air Force "pierced" through the array of Pakistan's Surveillance and Air Defense Grid to attack Pakistan Air Force Bases.

China-aided Pakistan Missiles were effectively foiled by India's indigenous Air Defense Grid. China's Advanced Fighter Planes of Pakistan Air Force were ineffective.

In short, China's weapon systems on which Pakistan's military staked its brinkmanship against India over decades, now stands crumbled.

Significantly, China is not going to take lying down its geopolitical and strategic losses emerging from OP-SINDOOR military strikes on Pakistan.

China rather than conceding India's military predominance in South Asia in wake of OP-SINDOOR would now with renewed vigor born out of vengeance would re-arm Pakistan, enhance its Air Force and AD Systems to whittle down India's military superiorities.

China would now redouble its military buildup of Bangladesh and prevent slippage of Nepal from its strategic orbit.

Concluding, surely, the Indian military establishment would be re-evaluating OP-SINDOOR operations and preparing itself for the next round.

India's next military round will be with China which will be itching to inflict losses on India in vengeance of its perceptional geopolitical and strategic losses suffered during OP-SINDOOR.

CHINA AND UNITED STATES CONVERGENT AIMS TO STRATEGICALLY CHECKMATE INDIA AT HEIGHT OF 'OP-SINDOOR' STRIKES ON PAKISTAN MAY 2025

Perceptually, China and United States betrayed their strategies of strategically checkmating India at the height of India's massive and decisive Indian Air Force counterstrikes on Pakistan air bases in retaliation for Pakistan escalating the conflict in early May 2025. 

India's OP-SINDOOR aerial strikes included damage to Pakistan Sargodha and Chaklala Air Bases which are Pakistan's nuclear weapons storage sites and Nuclear Command Authority.

China and United States may have different strategic reasons for checkmating India but their convergence to save Pakistan's strategic assets was glaringly out in the open. It is futile for Indian policy and strategic establishment to be in a state of denial that China is 'India's Enemy Number ONE' and uses Pakistan as a Chinese strategic force-multiplier against India.

So, China while adopting the optical strategy of advising' restraint' to both Pakistan and India, indulged in rushing military aid during the conflict.

But what was surprising and disappointing for India was the United States displaying convergent strategies with China in checkmating India. The United States disparaging remarks by US President Trump at the height of OP- SINDOOR strikes by India were damaging to future course of United States relations with India.

While the Modi Government has maintained a dignified silence on the subject of President Trump's uninvited and unwarranted claims of having 'mediated' a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, but Indian PM Modi publicly asserted for record that the United States had played no role in putting a ceasefire in effect.

It was Pakistan that ran to Washington seeking US help for a ceasefire. India rightly asserted that Pakistan route its 'ceasefire readiness through Pakistan Army DGMO on the 'Hot Line'.

One needs to dwell more on US President Trump's unwarranted assertions of drawing 'Strategic Equivalence' between India and Pakistan and equating the global stature of Indian P M Modi with PM Shahbaz Sharif of Pakistan which is in a mere  'Concubinage Relationship' with China.

President Trump has seemingly reverted US policy formulations on India to the 1990's when the United States 'Hyphenated' India and Pakistan in its approaches to the Indian Subcontinent.

Worse, many would not recall that in the US National Strategy Documents of that time, the United States asserted that it is the policy of United States 'To Prevent Emergence of Regional Hegemonistic States like China and India'.

Does the United States in 2025 perceives India as an 'Emergent Power' as having hegemonistic designs? 

Concluding, contextually, the United States has to publicly assert its perceptions on India post-OP SINDOOR. US President Trump has sowed misgivings and resentment in India by his callous and careless remarks on 'Strategic Equivalence' between India and Pakistan.

INDIA'S MAGNIFICENT BLITZKRIEG 'OP SINDOOR' MILITARY OPERATIONS (MAY25,2025 REDUCES PAKISTAN TO BEG FOR CEASEFIRE: GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT

India in a spectacular display of its Will to Use Power to uphold India's National Honour last week (May 7-10,2025) reduced Pakistan to beg for a ceasefire after India rapidly switched from its Limited War aims of 'Eliminating Pakistan's Proxy War Terrorism Capabilities' to the larger Strategic Aim of "Incapacitating Pakistan Army's War Waging Capabilities'.

India could achieve these War Aims within 72 hours of launching military offensives. India could achieve these remarkable decisive military victories with a rare combination of indomitable political leadership of PM Narendra Modi, his full faith in the synergy of integrated high-tech operations of Indian Army, Indian Navy and Indian Air Force, and more significantly by India's fast track War Preparedness in overdrive ever since 2014 when Modi Regime commenced.

The Indian media, both TV and print, carry exhaustive analyses of OP SINDOOR military operations against Pakistan. It is not the intention to repeat those details here.

What is being focused on in this Analysis is the geopolitical impact of India's unprecedented strategy and capability to conduct strategic blitzkrieg high-tech military offensives.

The above display of India's Will to Use Power and to 'Strike Deep' in Pakistan's Heartland of Pakistan Punjab and calling-off Pakistan's 'Nuclear Blackmail' has generated 'strategic ripples in United States, China and Russia.

All these three Major Powers will now have to study and analyze India's "Modi Doctrine" to recalibrate their strategic formulations on India's 'Power Trajectory'.

India's Prime Mimister Narendra Modi Enunciates "Modi Dctrine" in Strident Tones

In his Address to The Nation on May 12, 2025 after India's magnificent victory over Pakistan, PM Narendra Modi enunciated what can be termed as India's Monroe Doctrine.

 "Modi Doctrine" enunciates (1) India will strike back decisively at any acts of Terrorism attacks targeting India. (2) Terrorism acts against India will be deemed as 'Act of War' (3) India will also attack Countries/ Organizations facilitating Terrorist Attacks against India (4) India WILL NOT SUBMIT TO NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL from any quarter.

India Will Not Accept any Interference/Mediation on Any Aggresion by Pakistan.

PM Modi extending his Modi Doctrine also ruled out any mediation by Third Parties on issues bedeviling Pakistan's military confrontation against India.

Kashmir is a 'Non-Issue' for any external mediation. The only issue for India in this regard is Pakistan's vacation of its illegal occupation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

United States Needs More Prudence on Making Demands & Assertions on India

US President Trump in the 72 hours of India's decisive and battering strikes on Pakistan Air Force Bases and infrastructure displayed geopolitical callousness with his unwarranted assertions.

Initially supporting India's right to strike at Pakistan's Proxy Terrorism infrastructure, US President Trump suddenly reversed gears when Indian Air Force strikes hit Pakistan's nuclear-related air bases.

This leads me to question United States strategic motives. Does United States have a vested interest in keeping Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Arsenal intact and alive? Does this United States aim is an insurance to arrest India's rising Power Trajectory?

Further, US President Trump's callous political assertions drawing "Equivalence" between Indian PM Narendra Modi Sharif and Pakistani PM Shahbaz Sharif have incensed Indians.

PM Modi has evidently put United States on notice when he publicly refuted claims by President Trump that he mediated the ceasefire and that he is ready to mediate on Kashmir.

Post-OP SINDOOR , the United States will have to reset its political outlook. India will not accept any "Hyphenation" of India-Pak relations.

China Significamtly Impacted  by Indiia's 'Modi Doctrine & Failure of Chinese Advanced Weapons Systems Supplied to Pakistan

While United States has suffered perceptional losses by callous observations by US President, it is China which has been grievously impacted by India reducing Pakistan to its kness militarily within 72 hours.

The highly mythicized Chian-Pakistan Axis did not come into play in Pakistan's favor even when Indian Air Force Strikes virtually were hammering Pakistan Air Force Bases related to China-aided Pakistan's nuclear strike capabilities against India.

Pakistan's 82% Chinese military inventories of Chinese Air Defense Systems and advanced Chinese Fighter Aircraft could not stop Indian Air Force strikes including Sargodha and Chaklala, the heart of Pakistan's nuclear strike capabilities.

The second count of concern for China is India's demonstrated strategic strike capabilities deep within enemy territory, 'This coming after Dokalam and Galwan would keep Chinese military planners busy.

Whether China will reset India-policies or persist in reinforcing its geopolitical losses by overactive rearming of Pakistan Army will soon unfold.

Russia Seems to Have Played its Cards Well as India's OP SINDOOR  Offensives Were Underway

Russia made perceptional gains in India during the ongoing Pakistan's military confrontation with India. By its unambiguous support to India as opposed to United Staes meddlesome assertions during last week's India's offensives, Indian esteem for Russia has gone up.

The above needs to be seen in context of Russia being a strategically of China on the global stage.

India's spectacular military victories over Pakistan were enabled by Russian S 400 Air Defence Missiles which formed the backbone of India's defense grid, and which Pakistan could not penetrate by its advanced Chinese Fighter Aircraft even by firing its FATH Tactical Ballistic Missile aimed at New Delhi.

Russia is the only Major Power which has made geopolitical gains during the present War 

Israel and France Continue to be India's Reliable Statrtegic Partners.

Israeli anti-drone systems and French Rafale fighters and other missiles played a big part in India's strident 72 -hour victory over Pakistan.

Geopolitically, India should expand further its defense and security cooperation with France and Israel as it revamps its military machine after lesions drawn from this War.

Concluding Observations

India has undoubtedly emerged as the Regional Power in South Asia with demonstrated military prowess of striking swiftly and with devastating precision deep into Pakistan's Heartland,

United States and China would be well-advised to reset their strategic formulations on India's military rise as a Major Power capable of calling-off Nuclear Blackmail of its adversaries.

The "Modi Doctrine" should be seriously taken notice of by all Major Powers who should not interfere with India's 'natural balance f power 'in South Asia as the predominant power in the Indian Subcontinent.