MIDDLE EAST SMOULDERING GEOPOLITICAL CAULDRON: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY

India's foreign policy in the Middle East of fine balancing of global and regional geopolitical dynamics stands greatly unraveled by the October 2023 events which in its wake has not only spawned a major war between Israel and Iran aided by its Proxy Militias but has also mired the Middle East in collateral conflicts, like the Syrian Civil War, sharpening the bipolar global divide.

The Syrian Civil War is heading towards a regime overthrow of the Russia and China backed Syrian President. This would rob Russia of its only military toehold in the Middle East. Russia can be expected to trigger another regional conflict to reattain its military bases in Syria.

 Sharp geopolitical divides between the Russia-Iran-China Axis backing Iranian proxies like Hamas & Hezbollah and Iran's Direct Attacks on Israel, and United States solidly backed Israel, with tacit backing of some Arab regimes. 

The unprecedented devastation and bloodshed of the Middle East in 2024 has surpassed the two Gulf Wars interventions by the United States. of the 1990s and 2001.

The advent of President Trump's ascension to power in January 2025 in all probability could sharpen the global and regional political divides, notwithstanding President Trump's good relations with Russian President Putin.

India's foreign policy planners in 2025 will have to contend with the implicit aim of Rusia- China Axis to dislodge United States from the Middle East, using Iran's fifty-year-old hostility to wipe out Israel and the United States, as the spearhead.

Contextually, can India jettison the US-India Strategic Partnership nurtured since 2000? Can India afford to work at cross-purposes with United States security interests in the Middle East under challenge by the Russia-China Axis? Does the unfolding geopolitical dynamics in Middle East extend India the strategic bandwidth to fine balance its policies in the widening bipolar divide?

The answer to all of the above critical questions is a BIG NO!

 At the regional level similar geopolitical interlocking questions need to be asked by Indian foreign policy planners to themselves.

 Can India afford to abandon Israel which has stood by India in all of India's Wars since 1971? Can India be a party to Iran's relentless "War of Isreal Extinction"? Is it advisable for Indian foreign policy to be predicated to 'Hedging Strategies' being undertaken by some major regional Powers?

Here too, the answer is a BIG NO!

Concluding, if all the answers to the pertinent and critical geopolitical questions impacting India's foreign policy are in the 'Negative', then obviously a 'rethink' and 'reset' of the fundamentals of Indian foreign policy in the Middle East is an IMPERATIVE.

Finally, when India's Middle East foreign policy since 2014 stands predicated on India's geopolitical imperatives, unhinged from domestic vote banks politics, churning geopolitical cauldron in Middle East, demands revised perspectives.

CHINA'S ENDLESS PURGES OF MILITARY HIERARCHY BY PRESIDENT XI JINPING IS MANIFSTATION OF ONGOING POWER-STRUGGLE

Chinese President Xi Jinping's endless purges in China's military hierarchy ongoing for more than two years can realistically be analyzed only in two ways. Either the Chinse Armed Forces military hierarchy has become unprecedently "Corruption-Ridden" or corruption is only a fig-leaf excuse coined by the Chinese President as a coverup to hide a relentless "Power Struggle" against him.

China resultantly. in this process can be perceived as becoming 'Strategically Vulnerable,' on either count, with serious implications not only for China, but also with wider regional and global implications.

"Corruption Ridden" military hierarchy is akin to China having a paralyzing brain-tumor which can bring about policy-paralysis. It also is a blot on the ideological purity of the monolithic Chinese Communist Party which controls China, and reputed to be under firm control of President Xi Jinping. 

The above is also a serious reflection on Chinese President Xi Jinping's leadership qualities on two counts. Inability to select impeccable Chinese military hierarchy, or worse, having selected his political favorites, they are turning against him.

On both counts, China's much vaunted strategic might is open to question, as possession of an oversized military machine without impeccable military leadership is no guarantee of military effectiveness.

The "Power-Struggle" interpretation of purges of Chinese military hierarchy seems more plausible as manifestation of growing opposition to President Xi Jinping's iron-fist rule ever since 2013, when he captured both the levers of political and military control of Chinese Armed Forces.

 Purges in China's military hierarchy is not something new and certainly not for President Xi Jinping. It needs to be recalled that in his initial stages of capturing military control nearly 200 purges had taken place.

The present purges of two Defense Ministers, Rocket Forces hierarchy and now the Navy Admiral, heading the Political Affairs Department of the Central Military Commission a, comes at an ominous time, contextually.

Contextually, China today is battling a staggering decline in Chinese economy, widespread unemployment and domestic unrest/ protests are increasing. President Xi Jinping's leadership is obviously going to being increasingly questioned. 

China's external geopolitical and security environment is also hostile resulting from Chinese President's 'Hard Power 'policies.

Joining the above dots, dangers of a domestic political implosion in China cannot be ruled out,

Regionally, the most serious implications arise for countries on China's disputed land peripheries which can become targets of military escalation by a beleaguered Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Reflected by me in my earlier posts is that a 'Thaw" in China-India relations is a myth. Present conciliatory outreaches by Chinese President are "transactional" triggered by geopolitical compulsions. India could be the first major target for a beleaguered Chinese President to divert domestic unrest attention.

Globally, China's political implosion changes the entire 'Balance of Power' template, especially in the Indo Pacific. A Chinese Implosion could unravel the Russia-China Axis and seriously impact the adversarial postures of Russia in Europe and against the United States.  

Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Establishment are counting a lot on incoming US President Trump's 'transactional impulses' for softer US' China-policies.

Concluding observation, emerging from the above, is that even if US President Trump would be so inclined, he cannot prevent "China's Implosion" triggered by what appears to be a power-struggle by Chinese military hierarchy against him.

EUROPEAN SECURITY: THE EMERGENCE OF 'COALITION OF FIVE' SECURITY GROUPING OF FIVE MAJOR EUROPEAN NATIONS

 Spurred by unpredictabilities of Russian President's unfolding of aggressive intentions in Europe post-Ukraine Invasion and impending assumption of office by US President-elect Trump, Defence Ministers of Franc, Germany, Poland, Italy and UK met in Germany for greater security cooperation ad coordination, in what is being termed as "Coalition of Five' "or "E5 as the UK Defence Secretary terms it.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and ongoing still, has impelled in its wake, greater efforts by European Major Nations for European unity and security cooperation and coordination.

European threat perceptions based on Russian President Patin's 'Nuclear Saber-Rattling' and 'Threats' to strike Nations providing military aid to Ukraine against Russia, has impelled the 'Coalition of Five' for more effective coordination of 'Intra-Europe' security cooperation and coordination.

United States' unpredictable responses to NATO & European Security and to Russian aggression in Europe under incoming President Trump, has been a major catalyst for the emergence of 'Coalition of Five'.

On November 25 after deliberating on reinforcing European security and defense in the context of ongoing war in Ukraine, Poland's Deputy PM and Defense Minister Kosiniak declared that "It is imperative we are prepared for any scenario even those that are most challenging....... It is imperative that we provide support to Ukraine on a daily and weekly basis.". 

Guarding against any US President Trump's impulses to abandon Ukraine to a 'transactional deal' with Russia, the five Defence Ministers at their meeting in Berlin, asserted that "The five of us want to keep the Ukraine Defense Contact Group' alive".

Also asserted was that military aid to Ukraine be "doubled" which is a pre-emptive call for any President Trump's decision to cut off military aid to Ukraine to pressurize Ukraine President Zelensky to yield to possible Trump Plan to let Russia keep 20% of Ukraine Territory under Russian Occupation to induce Russia for ceasefire in Ukraine.

Polish Defense Minister putting it more mildly asserted that "Europe will have to act ever more coordinated with over-arching goals to be a good (security) partner for US".

Analytically, it can be concluded that this emergence of 'Coalition of Five' is not only European Major Nations geopolitical signaling to incoming US President Trump not to abandon Ukraine but also the evolution of first Intra-Europe indigenous defense grouping independent or supplemental to US-dominated NATO.

 

INDIA'S FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES IN A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN & VOLATILE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL WORLD ORDER POST- 2024

Global geopolitics, as 2024 fades into history and with advent of 2025, has an all-pervasive air of pronounced uncertainties and explosive volatility that will challenge the very existing fundamentals of India's foreign policy.

In fact, the global geopolitical world order will be plagued with these uncertainties and explosive volatility for the next ten years or so. Only, a cataclysmic Worl War III could be the only solution to subdue the unfolding sordid global geopolitics.

The major global uncertainties that standout sharply at end-2024 are the leadership changes in the United States, Russia and China. These leadership changes will make the global geopolitical order more polarized.

The major global explosive flashpoints that have all the potential to be incendiaries for a possible World War III range from the Russia-Ukraine War in Europe to the irreconcilable Israel-Iran War in the Middle East and the multiple "conflictual spots" between the United States and China in Indo Pacific 

Resultantly, the global geopolitical world order, as highlighted in my writings to date, is at the end of 2024, extremely polarized between the US-led Western Bloc of 'Democracy Allies' and the Rusia-China Bloc of 'Totalitarian Allies' like Iran and North Korea.

The political currents in global geopolitical 'world order' presage in end-2024 a "Global Geopolitical Disorder" with leadership changes in both highly polarized Blocs. 

The United States witnesses the re-election of President Trump with his characteristic "Unprintabilities" reinforced with his "unpredicted" absolute political majority.

Russia's President Putin by available political indicators seems to be on a "decline" due to debilitating impact of Russian Invasion of Ukraine. "Unpredictable" leadership tussle in Russia can be expected on pattern of post-USSR Disintegration.

China political future at end-2024 is "Unpredictable" under President Xi Jinping with economic decline and signs of political discontent emerging.

Collapse of Communist China will not only have a major impact on United States and Russia but moreso on India, as domestic disorder can tempt President Xi to initiate hostilities on India' Borders with China Occupied Tibet.  

Against such a geopolitical backdrop, BRICS in which Indian foreign policy has invested much capital is No Answer" as "insurance " for India's security interests as many political pundits advocate. 

Neither BRICS nor SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) are "Multipolar"in intent and composition nor a security nest for India.

Both organizations are Russia and China dominated, and both these Power have an "Unpredictable" future. 

If Indian foreign policy counts on "Multipolarity" both at geopolitical levels, that is equitability between United States, Russia and China and so-called multipolarity of organizations like SCO and BRICS, then unfolding "Geopolitical Disorder" negates these two precepts.

Concluding. stressed once again, that Idia's foreign policy cannot operate in a geopolitical vacuum. Indian foreign policy needs to cater for and be responsive to unfolding "Geopolitical Unpredictabilities".

"Multipolarity" which many sees as just another label for Non-Alignment is no longer valid in evolving "Global Disorder".

 India needs to emerge as a 'practitioner of "Realpolitik" and 'Balance of Power' to emerge as a rightful Major Power.

India's foreign policy blueprint for the next decade should reflect these two precepts, unapologetically.

CHINA-INDIA "STRATEGIC DISTRUST" OVERHANG GRAVELY RULES OUT "SUSTAINABLE THAWS"IN INTENSIFYING MILITARY CONFRONTATION

 

China's ongoing 'geopolitical and geoeconomic compulsions' impelled China in October 2024 to agree to a tactical compromise with India for disengagement of troops at two contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh.

Indian media and strategic community labelling it as a "Thaw" in intensified China-India Military Confrontation on the China Occupied Tibet Border is an overhype and a premature conclusion.

"Strategic Distrust" of China is deeply embedded in India's National Psyche ever since unprovoked 1962 War 'imposed' by China.

"Sustainable Thaw" in China-India relations can therefore be ruled out even in long-term perspective for factors analyzed below.

China is in for a long haul of decades before it can generate "Strategic Trust" in India's National Mindsets.

The major contentious issues which can intensify China-India Military Confrontation are both China-India specific, and also unfolding global geopolitical pressures which could force India's policy moves in directions contradictory to China.

China-India contentious issues likely to unfold anytime and which could intensify and embitter China-India Military Confrontation are as follows: (1) China's unwillingness for Tibet boundary dispute settlement (2) China imposing Dalai Lama's successor on Tibetan Nation (3) China's economic downslide prompting China to resort to divert Chinese domestic public unrest by military escalation on India-China Occupied Tibet Borders.

Detailed analysis will follow in later posts but suffice it to say at present is that the common thread above that runs through all three contentious issues stated above is Tibet and its continued existence as 'China Occupied Tibet,

The Opening Chapter in my Book 'China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives'(22015) titled 'TIBET IS THE CORE ISSUE IN CHINA-INDIA MILITARY CONFRONTATION" can be referred for details on the above issues.

Tibet as a 'Buffer State,' will figure more and more as India's 'Core Security Imperative' in years to come.

Global geopolitical pressures on China having a bearing on China-India Military Confrontation and likely to force China into military escalation on its peripheries are as follows: (1) China losing global geopolitical weightage and co-related India's geopolitical rise (2) US President Trump's advent in Washington leading to greater activation of QUAD's military role and demands on India to shed its aversion to China-Containment (3) China's invasion of Taiwan resulting in US-China Armed Conflict (4) United States intensifying its pressures on China to 'Resolve China-Tibet Dispute' respecting wishes of Tibetan peoples.

The common thread that runs through the above geopolitical pressures are United States China-policy centering on China's 'Core Interests' of Tibet and Taiwan, which China has sworn to defend with military might.

India's policy moves on all of the issues outlined above will run in "Contradiction" to perceived China's national priorities and will result in a darker overhang of "Strategic Distrust" in China-India relations.

In Conclusion, the major observations that emerge are (1) "Sustainable Thaw" in China-India Military Confrontation is an unrealistic proposition (2) India resultantly cannot afford to dilute its military postures on its Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet (3) India will be necessitated to build-up further its "Credible Conventional and Nuclear Deterrence" against China.

Therefore 'China-Hedging'. 'Risk Aversion', and policy obsession to 'Multipolarity' should not figure in India's policy armory.