RUSSIA GEOPOLITICALLY ON THE WRONG SIDE OF INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Russia as an erstwhile Superpower  which aspires to re-emerge once again as an independent power center in global power-play as articulated by President Putin sometime back, is  on the wrong side geopolitically of Indo Pacific security template emerging in 2021.

In 2021 what one witnesses is an intense polarisation with Free World Democracies of the QUAD Maritime Security Imitative trying to coalesce in an informal grouping to stem the tide of an arrogant and military expansionist China flouting every international norm and UN Conventions like UNCLOS and its applicability to the South China Sea where China has notoriously distinguished itself by forcible occupation of Vietnam's and Philippines Islands. 

Russia with its stated ambitions to emerge as an 'independent power centre' in global geopolitics can hardly qualify itself or be recognised as such by Indo Pacific Region countries when they witness Russia ostensibly and actively on he side of China---much detested now globally.

Perceptionally, Russia should not be fearing any military threats in the Western Pacific from United States or US Allies like Japan and South Korea.

Perceptionally, Russia wishing to regain its earlier glory as a 'Responsible Stakeholder' in global security and peace should be seen and perceived as against any Power or a group of Powers acting in a hostile manner and impeding the principle of 'Free and Open & Safe Pacific'.

On the contrary, what one observes is that Russia has not condemned or restrained an aggressive Communist China in its predatory moves in the Western Pacific against Vietnam and the Philippines.

China is also attempting military coercion of Japan around the Senkaku Islands forgetting that the United States under Article V of the US-Japan Security Treaty is obliged to intervene against any Chinese attacks on Japanese Territory.

The United States has further cautioned China against any forcible military annexation of Taiwan.

So where dose all of the above leave Russia  should China by intended or unintended military provocations force the United States to enter into an armed conflict with China?

By all available indicators, strategic analyses would indicate that Russia would not like to be drawn into an armed conflict with the United States, and certainly not on the side of China.

Then why does Russia persist in fostering regional and global perceptions that it is with China and the mistaken belief that Russia is under-writing China's aggressive predatory moves in Western Pacific?

Russian compulsions seem to arise from the simple premise that a China under strategic pressure from the United States and seen without Russian backing would buckle and thereby upset the global balance of power contrived by the China-Russia Strategic Nexus, however tenuous

In the above line of thinking, misperceived strategically, Russia is losing out on past Strategic Partners like India and political understanding of a Power like Japan.

Needless to state that both India and Japan have emerged as  the 'Major Pillars' of the US-led Indo Pacific Security template and the QUAD which geopolitically signals to China that it will not have a free run of the Western Pacific or the Indian Ocean.

Russia take your pick!!!

 

 

 

NATO MILITARY ALLIANCE -IMPERATIVES FOR MORE ASSERTIVE NAVAL STANCES IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

 The 'China Threat'  in 2021 is no longer a a pervasive threat felt and confined to Indo Pacific Region only but has transcended the vast geographical land and maritime expanses of Asia to to figure in the threat perceptions of the Euro-centric NATO Military Alliance which was earlier solely focused on the Russian Threat to Europe.

The NATO Headquarters in Brussels in its December 2020 Perspectives Study Report "NATO 2030: United for a New Era" has expressed strategic concern on China's political, strategic and military intentions which NATO now perceives could also impact European security especially on NATO's Southern Flank nations and Eastern Mediterranean .

Some excerpts which highlight NATO's strategic concerns are reproduced as under:

• "The scale of China's power and global reach poses acute challenges to open and democratic countries particularly because of that country's (China) trajectory to authoritarianism and expansion of its territorial ambitions."
• "China has proven its willingness to use force against its neighbors as well as economic coercion and intimidatory diplomacy well beyond the Indo Pacific region."
• "NATO should deepen consultation and cooperation with Indo Pacific partners--Australia, Japan." 
  

 China's inroads into the Middle East, China-Iran Strategic Partnership and strategic projects like Maritime Silk Road and OBOR with economic pretensions as fig-leaves are cited as China's growing global ambitions of concern to NATO.

Major Powers of Europe like France and United Kingdom have already started asserting their naval presence with elevated levels in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean .

These European Powers have in recent months participated in exercises with the QUAD Navies of United States, Japan,India and Australia.

Such policy changes where European countries would kow-ow to China in the last decade have obviously been impelled by concerns of China's not so benign rise and its aggression in the South China Sea.

This is a  welcome expression of the intentions of the United States and Major Powers--all democratic countries-- to join hands to keep the freedom of navigation in international waters and the airspace above  them free from any disruptions by China as displayed in the Indian Ocean.

China for long has got away with its military aggression and expansionism in the South China Sea at the expense of its smaller neighbors like Vietnam and the Philippines. due to United States earlier 'China Hedging' policies.

China understands only one language like all bullies and that is the language of the STRONG and being STOOD UP TO firmly and pushed back.

United States, Japan, India and Australia with a revival and resurgence of the QUAD have sent the appropriate message to China.

With the China Threat being palpably felt by NATO Military Alliance as a strategic concern both for Europe and globally in NATO Perspectives for the decade up to 2030 , strong imperatives exist for NATO Military Alliance for enhanced naval stances in South China Sea.

NATO Navies and the QUAD Navies acting in unison would be an appropriate chastening message of the Free World to a Revisionist Power like China which with its Hard Line muscular policies in Indo Pacific seems to have gone on a wild Hitlerian rampage in recent years.

 

NEW US PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN OPTS TO CONTINUE UNITED STATES 'HARD LINE' STRATEGIES AGAINST CHINA'S MILITARY EXPNASIONISM

United States new President Joe Biden has wisely opted to continue American 'Hard Line' strategies against China in view of China unwiling to relent from muscular militray expansionist policies not only against South China Sea victims of Chinese expansionism like Vietnam and the Philippines but also against Asia's two major Emerged Powers like India and Japan.

US President Biden by doing so has signalled to China in clear terms that with change of US Presidency, no strategic space exists for China to feel emboldened that United States will lapse into US Democratic Party Presidents propensity to be permissive on China's expansionist impulses in Indo Pacific Region.

Flowing from the above, China much chagrined by President Biden's decision to continue US 'Hard Line' strategies against China has led to enhanced levels of China's militray provocations against Japan, Chinese Air Force intrusions in Taiwan's airspace and Philippines reefs in the South China Sea being swarmed by Chinese militia vessels numbering 200.

In terms of impact of the above, Japan and India have fast-tracked the militray upgradation of their respective Armed Forces. Smaller nations of the Indo Pacific have also resorted to similar military upgradations.

Noticeably, the four QUAD Nations seem to have intensified their Joint Naval Exercises both multilaterally and bilaterally. India which was so far shying away from actively visible QUAD manifestations has now come to the fore shedding its earlier inhibitions araising from mistaken sentiments of not displeasing China. 

 

So in April 2021 whatis clearly visible is that Asian Giants in contention with China like India and Japan have visibly signalled that they are ready to complement United States resolve under President Biden that a recalictrant China bent on shaking the foundations of a 'Rules Based Indo Pacific Order' . Invariably, if China continues in its existing challenging of Indo Pacific security then possibilities exist of a wider US-China armed conflict. In such an eventuality, no strategic space would accrue for 'Fence Sitters' in the Indo Pacific Region.

FORMER UNITED STATES PRESIDENT TRUMP'S LEGACY TO INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Former US President Trump has in my assessment left a formidable legacy to follow on Indo Pacific Security in terms of checkmating China's unrestrained military aggresiveness rampage across the vast expanse of the Indo Pacific Region trampling on the sovereignty of its weaker ASEAN neigbours, militraily coercing Japan and Taiwan and presently engaged in headlong military confrontation with Sub-Continental sized India, a vitrual equal, in the sensitive Eastern Ladakh region bordering China Occupied Tibet.

Setting aside United States domestic political opinions of former President Trump, what needs to be strategically and objectively viewed is that former President Trump contributed greatly to the overall security template of the Indo Pacific. This centered prmarily on shedding the 'China Hedging' strategies and 'Risk Aversion' policiess of past US Presidents when it came to China's growing military assertiveness to the extent of throwing the military gauntlet at the United States as evidenced in South China Sea and against Taiwan.

Resorting to the strategy of 'War by Other Means' President Trump engaged China in a US-China Trade War and hurting China where it hurts most. The Chinese economy is noticeably on a slow-down stage and likely to cause domestic political problems. It did distract China from some of its expansionism instincts.

In the South China Sea President Trump ordered intensification of US Navy FONOPs operations besides motivating Japanese  Navy also to participate in naval patrols. The United States seems to have sensitised major European Nations also to the China Threat in the Indo Pacific resluting in France and  UK declaring their intentions to send French Navy and Royal Navy on South China Sea missions.

The QUAD Maritime Iitiative led by the UnitedStates and comprising Japan, Australia and India was put in a resurgent mode by President Trump after it had gone into a slumber since 2006 or so. Navies of the QUAD Nations now exrecise regularly both in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. QUAD's significance has not been lost on China which is seriously concerned as it has the potential to checkmate China's maritime ambitions of expansion.

President Trump's most significant contribution to Indo Pacific security has been to draw-in India into a more active  and substantial US-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. It cannot be overlooked that with India on its side theUS-led informal Coalition of Democracies gets that much more weightier and as a dampner and game-changing counterweight to China's militarism. To that end, the security profile of the Coalition of Democracies against the China Threat gets that much more enhanced.

Concluding, it needs to be emphasised and over-emphasised that the China Threat is a potent and live threat to Indo Pacific Security and that the United States incoming President Joe Biden also needs to remain equally alive to the strategic reality that the China Threat is a long term threat primarily targetted at the United States and it does not matter to China as to which political dispensation US Presidents follow in the coming decades.

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA WITNESSES GREATER EUROPEAN NAVIES INVOLVEMENT

South China Sea so far did not engage much attention of European Nations Navies in terms of naval patrols to indicate and establish their presence signalling strategic interest in this crucial maritime expanse.

European apathy in not giving due strategic attention to the South China Sea in their strategic calculus presumably arose from  a combination of three or four factors.

South China Sea till middle of last decade had not assumed the military turbulence that characterises it in 2020 as a result of China's unbridled military aggressiveness and brinkmanship to establish China's sovereignty and dominance over the entire South China Sea.

European Nations found assurance in the belief in past years that the United States military power and might would be able to checkmate China's military adventurism in South China Sea.

European Nations economies were inextricably tied up with their China-Trade and European Nations were loathe to ruffle China by increasing their Naval Patrols in Indian Ocean and particularly extending to South China Sea.

However, in 2020, all the European Nations presumptions on South China Sea security and stability stand proved grievously wrong by China.

China stood emboldened by American hesitation in not resorting to full scale deterrence against China in its predatory forays and aggression South China Sea till US President Trump came along and started confronting China both in South China Sea and China's unilateral exploitation of its trade relations with United States.

China also stood emboldened in defying United States on the South China Sea conscious of the fact that European Nations stood apathetically unresponsive to the growing turbulence in South China Sea.

Resultantly, what developed was that China carried an exponential expansion of a 'blue water' Chinese Navy with its eyes not only on South China Sea but also on Indian Ocean and as afar as the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. It also began military occupation of South China Sea islands belonging to Vietnam and Philippines

While European Nations Navies like those of France and Britain maintained their presence in the Indian Ocean but they had not extended their naval presence to the South China Sea.

As 2020 drew to a close European Nations rattled by China's unrestrained belligerence not only in South China Sea and Indian Ocean but also with Chinese Navy Bases in Gwadur in Pakistan and in Djibouti on the Red Sea coupled with  Chinese interference in geopolitics of Levant & Eastern Mediterranean woke up belatedly to the reality that China was moving into European traditional areas of influence.

Emerging from the above realisations and conscious of the fact that China was no longer a responsible stakeholder in global security and stability, European Nations have recently decided that French, British an Navies would now be sending their Navy warships on patrols to South China Sea.

South East Asian nations particularly Vietnam and Philippines would feel encouraged that not only the United States, Japan, India and Australia stand by them on the South China Sea against Chinese aggression but also that France, Germany and Britain have signalled to China that it is high time that China behaves like a responsible nation and desist from its disruptive strategies especially against smaller neighbours.