EUROPEAN SECURITY: THE EMERGENCE OF 'COALITION OF FIVE' SECURITY GROUPING OF FIVE MAJOR EUROPEAN NATIONS

 Spurred by unpredictabilities of Russian President's unfolding of aggressive intentions in Europe post-Ukraine Invasion and impending assumption of office by US President-elect Trump, Defence Ministers of Franc, Germany, Poland, Italy and UK met in Germany for greater security cooperation ad coordination, in what is being termed as "Coalition of Five' "or "E5 as the UK Defence Secretary terms it.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and ongoing still, has impelled in its wake, greater efforts by European Major Nations for European unity and security cooperation and coordination.

European threat perceptions based on Russian President Patin's 'Nuclear Saber-Rattling' and 'Threats' to strike Nations providing military aid to Ukraine against Russia, has impelled the 'Coalition of Five' for more effective coordination of 'Intra-Europe' security cooperation and coordination.

United States' unpredictable responses to NATO & European Security and to Russian aggression in Europe under incoming President Trump, has been a major catalyst for the emergence of 'Coalition of Five'.

On November 25 after deliberating on reinforcing European security and defense in the context of ongoing war in Ukraine, Poland's Deputy PM and Defense Minister Kosiniak declared that "It is imperative we are prepared for any scenario even those that are most challenging....... It is imperative that we provide support to Ukraine on a daily and weekly basis.". 

Guarding against any US President Trump's impulses to abandon Ukraine to a 'transactional deal' with Russia, the five Defence Ministers at their meeting in Berlin, asserted that "The five of us want to keep the Ukraine Defense Contact Group' alive".

Also asserted was that military aid to Ukraine be "doubled" which is a pre-emptive call for any President Trump's decision to cut off military aid to Ukraine to pressurize Ukraine President Zelensky to yield to possible Trump Plan to let Russia keep 20% of Ukraine Territory under Russian Occupation to induce Russia for ceasefire in Ukraine.

Polish Defense Minister putting it more mildly asserted that "Europe will have to act ever more coordinated with over-arching goals to be a good (security) partner for US".

Analytically, it can be concluded that this emergence of 'Coalition of Five' is not only European Major Nations geopolitical signaling to incoming US President Trump not to abandon Ukraine but also the evolution of first Intra-Europe indigenous defense grouping independent or supplemental to US-dominated NATO.

 

INDIA'S FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES IN A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN & VOLATILE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL WORLD ORDER POST- 2024

Global geopolitics, as 2024 fades into history and with advent of 2025, has an all-pervasive air of pronounced uncertainties and explosive volatility that will challenge the very existing fundamentals of India's foreign policy.

In fact, the global geopolitical world order will be plagued with these uncertainties and explosive volatility for the next ten years or so. Only, a cataclysmic Worl War III could be the only solution to subdue the unfolding sordid global geopolitics.

The major global uncertainties that standout sharply at end-2024 are the leadership changes in the United States, Russia and China. These leadership changes will make the global geopolitical order more polarized.

The major global explosive flashpoints that have all the potential to be incendiaries for a possible World War III range from the Russia-Ukraine War in Europe to the irreconcilable Israel-Iran War in the Middle East and the multiple "conflictual spots" between the United States and China in Indo Pacific 

Resultantly, the global geopolitical world order, as highlighted in my writings to date, is at the end of 2024, extremely polarized between the US-led Western Bloc of 'Democracy Allies' and the Rusia-China Bloc of 'Totalitarian Allies' like Iran and North Korea.

The political currents in global geopolitical 'world order' presage in end-2024 a "Global Geopolitical Disorder" with leadership changes in both highly polarized Blocs. 

The United States witnesses the re-election of President Trump with his characteristic "Unprintabilities" reinforced with his "unpredicted" absolute political majority.

Russia's President Putin by available political indicators seems to be on a "decline" due to debilitating impact of Russian Invasion of Ukraine. "Unpredictable" leadership tussle in Russia can be expected on pattern of post-USSR Disintegration.

China political future at end-2024 is "Unpredictable" under President Xi Jinping with economic decline and signs of political discontent emerging.

Collapse of Communist China will not only have a major impact on United States and Russia but moreso on India, as domestic disorder can tempt President Xi to initiate hostilities on India' Borders with China Occupied Tibet.  

Against such a geopolitical backdrop, BRICS in which Indian foreign policy has invested much capital is No Answer" as "insurance " for India's security interests as many political pundits advocate. 

Neither BRICS nor SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) are "Multipolar"in intent and composition nor a security nest for India.

Both organizations are Russia and China dominated, and both these Power have an "Unpredictable" future. 

If Indian foreign policy counts on "Multipolarity" both at geopolitical levels, that is equitability between United States, Russia and China and so-called multipolarity of organizations like SCO and BRICS, then unfolding "Geopolitical Disorder" negates these two precepts.

Concluding. stressed once again, that Idia's foreign policy cannot operate in a geopolitical vacuum. Indian foreign policy needs to cater for and be responsive to unfolding "Geopolitical Unpredictabilities".

"Multipolarity" which many sees as just another label for Non-Alignment is no longer valid in evolving "Global Disorder".

 India needs to emerge as a 'practitioner of "Realpolitik" and 'Balance of Power' to emerge as a rightful Major Power.

India's foreign policy blueprint for the next decade should reflect these two precepts, unapologetically.

CHINA-INDIA "STRATEGIC DISTRUST" OVERHANG GRAVELY RULES OUT "SUSTAINABLE THAWS"IN INTENSIFYING MILITARY CONFRONTATION

 

China's ongoing 'geopolitical and geoeconomic compulsions' impelled China in October 2024 to agree to a tactical compromise with India for disengagement of troops at two contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh.

Indian media and strategic community labelling it as a "Thaw" in intensified China-India Military Confrontation on the China Occupied Tibet Border is an overhype and a premature conclusion.

"Strategic Distrust" of China is deeply embedded in India's National Psyche ever since unprovoked 1962 War 'imposed' by China.

"Sustainable Thaw" in China-India relations can therefore be ruled out even in long-term perspective for factors analyzed below.

China is in for a long haul of decades before it can generate "Strategic Trust" in India's National Mindsets.

The major contentious issues which can intensify China-India Military Confrontation are both China-India specific, and also unfolding global geopolitical pressures which could force India's policy moves in directions contradictory to China.

China-India contentious issues likely to unfold anytime and which could intensify and embitter China-India Military Confrontation are as follows: (1) China's unwillingness for Tibet boundary dispute settlement (2) China imposing Dalai Lama's successor on Tibetan Nation (3) China's economic downslide prompting China to resort to divert Chinese domestic public unrest by military escalation on India-China Occupied Tibet Borders.

Detailed analysis will follow in later posts but suffice it to say at present is that the common thread above that runs through all three contentious issues stated above is Tibet and its continued existence as 'China Occupied Tibet,

The Opening Chapter in my Book 'China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives'(22015) titled 'TIBET IS THE CORE ISSUE IN CHINA-INDIA MILITARY CONFRONTATION" can be referred for details on the above issues.

Tibet as a 'Buffer State,' will figure more and more as India's 'Core Security Imperative' in years to come.

Global geopolitical pressures on China having a bearing on China-India Military Confrontation and likely to force China into military escalation on its peripheries are as follows: (1) China losing global geopolitical weightage and co-related India's geopolitical rise (2) US President Trump's advent in Washington leading to greater activation of QUAD's military role and demands on India to shed its aversion to China-Containment (3) China's invasion of Taiwan resulting in US-China Armed Conflict (4) United States intensifying its pressures on China to 'Resolve China-Tibet Dispute' respecting wishes of Tibetan peoples.

The common thread that runs through the above geopolitical pressures are United States China-policy centering on China's 'Core Interests' of Tibet and Taiwan, which China has sworn to defend with military might.

India's policy moves on all of the issues outlined above will run in "Contradiction" to perceived China's national priorities and will result in a darker overhang of "Strategic Distrust" in China-India relations.

In Conclusion, the major observations that emerge are (1) "Sustainable Thaw" in China-India Military Confrontation is an unrealistic proposition (2) India resultantly cannot afford to dilute its military postures on its Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet (3) India will be necessitated to build-up further its "Credible Conventional and Nuclear Deterrence" against China.

Therefore 'China-Hedging'. 'Risk Aversion', and policy obsession to 'Multipolarity' should not figure in India's policy armory.

 

THE CHINA-PAKISTAN AXIS HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT

Global geopolitics and global geoeconomics in 2024-end are throwing up enough indicators that the "Iron Clad" China-Pakistan Axis is heading towards an 'inevitable' strategic denouement. The 'Iron Cladding' on which the China-Pakistan Axis mainly rested in terms of their joint hatred and adversarial stances towards India is "RUSTING" due to India's rise as a Major Power.

Pakistan, reflected for many years in my published Papers, was reduced by China to a 'concubinage relationship' and further reduced by China by a 'colonial vice-like grip' of Pakistan's political and economic dynamics due to Pakistan's economic insolvency.

Pakistan at large today chafes at this colonial hold of China which has ensnared Pakistan into a Chinese debt-trap quagmire. 

Deep anti-China fissures are surfacing within Pakistan, and which cannot be cemented by China's pressures on Pakistan Army to do so.

Three major indicators instantly available last week are instant pointers that strategic denouement is setting-in in the China-Pakistan Axis. These three indicators are: (1) Chinese Ambassador publicly rebuking Pakistan for failing to provide adequate security for Chinese working in Pakistan (2) China hesitating to "reschedule" Pakistan's request for repayment of loans (3) China accepting military disengagement with India in Eastern Ladakh.

Reacting to repeated killings of Chinese engineers working on projects in Pakistan, the Chinese Ambassador, unprecedently, publicly rebuked Pakistan for failure to protect Chinese lives. Unprecedently again, the Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson, publicly dismissed the Chinese Ambassador's rebuke as inappropriate and not following diplomatic norms.

Analytically, the Chinese rebuke, in implicit terms, is that of the Pakistan Army which has deployed nearly two Military Divisions worth of troops for security of Chinese working on projects from Khunjerab in the North to Gwadur on North Arabian Sea coast.

That Pakistan Army could not ensure it, itself, reflects the intense anti-China sentiments that in 2024 pervades within Pakistan.

Notably, China has always dithered on Pakistan's recurring requests to China for financial bailouts, forcing even the most ardent pro-China former Pakistan PM Imran Khan to grudgingly seek loans from US-dominated IMF. Pakistan was bailed out from critical financial crises, not by China, but by Saudi Arabia and UEA financial largesse.

This reality cannot be lost on Pakistan, perceptionally, with its consequent impact on public opinion within Pakistan.

Chinese financial assistance is likely to be further tightened as China increasingly views Pakistan's strategic utility declining in China's strategic calculus.

The China-Pakistan Axis in military terms is likely to be hugely impacted by China last week agreeing with India to disengage in military confrontation at two most contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh. 

China may have tactically resorted to do so but in perceptional terms within Pakistan, and moreso within Pakistan Army, amounts to a Chinese climbdown recognizing India's geopolitical and geoeconomic rise.

This process, if continued by China and Pakistan, robs both Nations of their 'Dual Threat' strategy.

Addedly, Pakistan's younger generations, looking for gainful economic employment, are neither interested in Kashmir nor meaningless military confrontation with India. In concrete terms, perceptionally, alignment with China has not improved economic conditions within Pakistan, notwithstanding Chinese and Pakistan Establishment's propaganda.

Furthermore, China's diplomatic isolation on global issues and economic downslide, will induce corresponding reappraisals within Pakistan of China's 'Iron Clad' guarantees to Pakistan's stability and development.

Concluding, what needs to be stressed, without sermonizing, is that the Indian Policy Establishment should keep incessantly joining the dots and press home its advantages, tactically and strategically, by Indian policy measures, to induce within Pakistan the inevitable strategic unravelling of the China-Pakistan Axis.

CHINA'S ECONOMY ENTERS "GARBAGE TIME" PHASE: SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS.

China's economic stagnation has entered the "Garbage Time" phase--a term coined by Chinese essayist Hu Wenhui drawing an analogy from sports matches referring to final moments of the game where the end stands already decided. Significantly, it reflects deep economic despair that pervades China's domestic environment which could end up in political turmoil.

Chinese media has been abuzz with this "Garbage Time" economic barbs, directed more against Chinese President Xi Jinping's 12-year centralized mishandling of Chinese economy bypassing the Chinese Premier who traditionally set China's economic agenda. 

Chinese Communist Party has thus been nudged into taking note of the "Garbage Tine" economic barbs and issue rebuttals as a conspiracy by defeatist forces within China and abroad.

Recent Chinee economic stimulus packages by China grudgingly undertaken on orders of President Xi have failed to restore investor confidence and significant outflow of foreign capital.

My Article of July 29 titled ' China's Declining Trajectory under 12 Years of President Xi Jinping Rule: An Analysis' highlighted the geopolitical and economic impact. 

It was pointed out that any "Reverse Gears" by Chinese President was highly unlikely as major structural economic reforms inherently carry risks of political challenges to President Xi's continuance in power. 

Since July 2024, Chinese economy continues to "stagnate" giving rise to significant global and regional implications discussed briefly below,

China as Economic Superpower Myth Bursts

With Chinese economy down sliding from 12% growth rates for decades to below 5% under 12 years of President Xi's over-centralized rule, China is no longer deemed as 'Economic Superpower'.

China's economic situation further worsened   with President Xi's 'Anti Espionage Law' targeting foreign management and risk consultancy firms hastening outflow of foreign businesses.

China's Consequent Global Economic Leverage Takes a Big Hit

China for decades enjoyed great global clout in terms of global economic leverages. With economic stagnation not receding China stands hit badly.

China's 'Debt Trap' diplomacy luring weak economic countries like Maldives and Sri Lamka etc will be severely curtailed.

China's Oversized Miliatary & Internal Scurity Budgetary Spending Could be Impacted

While in the last Defence Budget China registered a 7% increase in spending but can the Chinese economy with less than 5% growth can sustain oversized Defence Budgets and for how long?

The demands on Internal Security spending are bound to grow but where is the money with the anomy stagnating?

China's Regional Belligerence Likely to be Reduced

Evidence of this can be seen with China's political and military reasonableness with India underway after four winters of intense military confrontation in Ladakh.

However, the first tentative steps by China in this direction should be viewed as "tactical and tentative" until China sustains it in the long term.

However, no evidence of reduction of Chinese belligerence against Taiwan, Philippines or in South China Sea is visible.

China Resents India's Neigborhood First Policies.

China's decreasing economic clout and India's increasing success in winning back Maldives and Sri Lanka has rattled China.

Chinese columnists' writings in Global Times betray China's deep resentment.

Global Eonomists have Opined China Itself Falling Into its Own 'Debt Trap'-- Most Significant Observation by Global Economists

Note global economists have opined that China itself could be entering into a classic 'Debt Trap' due to its production 'overcapacities', falling exports due to trade tariffs by many nations against Chinese dumping charges and US economic sanctions.

This could lead to severe domestic political turbulence in China with job cuts and rising unemployment in Chinese youth.

Concluding Observations

With China's $17 Trillion economy stagnating with no hopes of early structural transformation, China is entering a dangerous phase both domestically and globally.

China may have surpassed the Former Soviet Union in Communist rule longevity but this "Garbage Time" phase of China's economic stagnation resembles the Soviet Union's closing time of "Disintegration".

China survived the adverse impacts of Soviet Union's disintegration due to United States economic patronage. 

The United States is currently not around to bail-out China's economic stagnation and consequent 'Disintegration". The United States may now hasten it to preempt Chinese aggression against United States in Indo Pacific.

India as China's Major Asian Rival needs to tread carefully in economic and trade dealings with China, despite noted Indian economists misinformed advocacy to permit Chinese FDI in India.

The above amounts to India underwriting China's aggression against India from China Occupied Tibet.

Overall, China's myth of being a "Superpower" sounds hollow and the Balane of Power against it globally and regionally stands considerably impacted.