UNITED STATES AND INDIA'S DIFFERING POLICY PERCEPTIONS ON RUSSIA: IMPLICATIONS ANALYSED:

United States and India in 2024 bonded together by a vibrant Global Strategic Partnership, however, now face a piquant situation, where their differing policy perspectives on Russia, is causing irritable strains, and which could raise unintended implications.

United States and India's differing policy perceptions on Russia have come into sharper focus with Indian PM Narendra Modi's recent visit to Moscow where for optical reasons, Russian President Putin, displayed more than usual effusive bonhomie.

The above contextually viewed with India's abstention on US-sponsored UN Resolution calling on Russia to cease the war in Ukraine, has drawn American criticism.

United States in 2024 perceives Russia, after Russian Invasion of Ukraine, as a potent threat to European security and a threat to Indo Pacific security, when viewed in the Russia-China context.

India in 2024, weighed down by multilateralism foreign policy prescriptions, and with the historical record of Russia-India Strategic Partnership, predating the US-India Strategic Partnership, by decades, is loath to outrightly jettison this relationship.

The above Indian policy perception prevails despite that Russia in 2024 is strategically closely tied to India's arch-enemy China.

In terms of implications, India stands to lose more geopolitically, than United States, if both India and the United States cannot overcome the strain caused in their differing policy perceptions on Russia.

The irrefutable fact is that India's considerable weightage in global geopolitics power-play surfaced only with US-India "Estrangement" of the last century having been transformed into "Active Engagement" in the last ten years.

The above set in motion a strategic re-evaluation of India in the foreign policy calculations in Major Powers capitals.

The United States has been accommodative of India's differing policy perceptions on Russia and Iran for the last many years.

However. in 2024, when the World Order is heavily polarized, reminiscent of Cold War 1.0 vintage, and with Russia-China Axis in active play in the Ukraine War, the United States, West, and US Allies in the Pacific, including countries like Japan, may not be all that accommodative of India's perceptions of Russia.

Visible recently, as a result of the above, possibly, are the United States to forge a newer set of strategic groupings superimposed on the existing security architecture in Western Pacific. India does not figure in them.

So, what are India's options to restore the vibrancy in US-India Strategic Partnership?

While I am not suggesting that India should jettison its long-standing relations with Russia, it is also incumbent on India not to give the impression that it is playing the 'India Card' with more than protocol diplomacy.

Contextual geopolitical landscape of a heavily confrontationist bipolar world in 2024, as repeatedly stressed by me earlier, does not offer India the bandwidth of Nehruvian foreign policy stances, juggling Non-alignment with Multilateralism.

India till 2047, needs a' Countervailing Power' as a standby to face a highly belligerent China in no mood to settle issues with India.

The choice for India is between United States and Russia. Russia does not have the geopolitical weight and strategic potential to be one.

United States provides a good option to be India's Countervailing Power against China. It needs to be recalled that in 1962, Nehru was ultimately forced to enlist United States assistance to countervail China.

India needs to prudently make its 'Strategic Choices' as to who serves India's national security interests more effectively.

 

  

TIBET THRUST INTO GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL COSCIOUSNESS BY UNITED STATES LEGISLATION DEBUNKING CHINA'S CLAIMS OVER TIBET

The United States bowing to geopolitical imperatives, in a significant Congress Legislation, has pushed China Occupied Tibet into global consciousness which not only defines Tibet's geographical boundaries but also debunks China's 'historical claims' of sovereignty over Tibet.

In a bipartisan move, passed overwhelmingly by both Houses of the US Congress the "Promoting a Resolution of the Tibet-China Conflict Act 2024" milestone and historic.  The Bill now has gone to President Joe Biden for signature,

The Act is exhaustive, and for purposes of this Paper, the most significant observations which have geopolitical consequences, have been lifted from the Act, and produced verbatim:

• "Tibet including those areas incorporated into the Chinese provinces of Sichuan, Yunan, Gansu and Qinghai, is an Occupied Territory, contrary to principles of international law".
• Tibet's true representatives are the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan Government-in-exile as recognized by the Tibetan people".
• Tibet has remained throughout history, a distinctive and sovereign national, cultural and religious identity, separate from that of China except during short periods of illegal occupation, has maintained a separate and sovereign political and national identity."
• "The United States Government has never taken the position that Tibet is part of China since ancient times or that the means by what the Government Peoples Republic of China came to exert effective control over Tibet was consistent with international law or included the force of meaningful consent of the Tibetan people."

Further emphasis on the above is stated in Section 4 "Sense of the Congress' which states: 

• Claims made by the officials of Peoples Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party that Tibet has been a part of China since ancient times are false."
• The Government of Peoples Republic of China has failed to meet the expectations of the United States to engage in meaningful dialogue with the Dalai Lama or representatives towards a peaceful settlement of the unresolved conflict between Tibet and the Peoples Republic of China."
• "United States public diplomacy should counter disinformation about Tibet from the Government of Peoples Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party, including disinformation about the history of Tibet, the Tibetan people and the Tibetan institutions, including that of the Dalai Lama."

The 'Resolution of Tibet-China Conflict Act 2024" once signed by President Biden, is a quantum jump by the United States over the 'US Tibet Policy Act 2002' , both in terms of 'statutory definitions' of Tibet and United States policy assertions on Tibet, which would form the basis of  'Reset of US Tibet Policy' for the future. 

The significant policy assertions made by United States on Tibet, as passed by the US Congress are as follows:

• Tibet's territorial and international status as Tibet is not confined to what China Terms as Tibet Autonomous Region but extends to include Tibetan Areas in China's neighboring areas stated above. 
• Tibet throughout its history (excepting spells of Chinese Occupation) has remained a distinctive political 'sovereign' entity.
• United States 'has never taken position that Tibet is part of China' as claimed by China and Chinese Communist Party. US dismisses China's historical assertions in this regard. (US documents from 1919 to date have been cited)
• United States long-standing policy that Tibet-China Conflict has to be resolved by China in negotiations with The Dalai Lama or his representatives, 'without any pre-conditions.' 

It needs to be recalled that China has not entered into any negotiations with the Dalai Lama, or his representatives, since 2010 asserting that Dalai Lama is not the representative of the Tibetan people.

United States now forcefully asserts that The Dalai Lama d the Tibet Government-in-exile are the true representatives of the Tibetan peoples. This is a politically heavily loaded challenge for China. 

China has been put on notice on Tibet's future by the United States by unambiguous policy declarations,

 not made so explicitly before.

Expectedly, US Allies and strategic partners would take the lead provided by United States in "Reset" of their policy stands on Tibet, now that the United States has thrust Tibet into global conscience. 

Finally, it needs to be stressed that the latest US Bill's policy assertions reinforce the fact that Tibet is presently, "China Occupied Tibet", as I have maintained in my writings for two decades and that China's historical claims are 'fabricated claims' which are illegal. 

INDIA'S PERCEPTIBLE GEOPOITICAL PUSH-BACK AGAINST CHINA ON ITS 'CORE ISSUES' 2024 ANALYZED

India's perceptible and calibrated geopolitical 'China Push-Back' strategy, in a game of counter-pressure points against China, is perceptibly visible in 2024 with India's recent moves on China's 'Core Issues' of Tibet, Taiwan and South China Sea.

China has designated Tibet, Taiwan and South China Sea as 'Core Issues' for China's national security and its sovereignty claims over these three entities. China has also asserted that China is willing to go to war, in case Chinses sovereignty claims over these three is threatened from any quarter.

India's geopolitical push-back against China on its three 'Core Issues' is therefore a welcome departure from long years of Nehruvian Indian 'China-Timidity' policies whose legacy hangover was pervasive in India's Foreign Office Mandarins, even in the initial years of Modi Government.

India's renewed vigor to indulge in a game of counter-pressure points against China emerges from a combination of global geopolitical factors in India's favor and India's vigorous over-drive in the last 10 years under present political dispensation led by PM Modi to reduce India's war-preparedness asymmetries against China Threat to India, emanating from over-militarized China Occupied Tibet.

India's Tibet-policy has undergone a change in recent years. India now is no longer apologetic that a 'Tibet Government-in -Exile' functions from the border Indian State of Himachal Pradesh. 

Recently last month was the conspicuous visit of a US Congressional Delegation comprising senior political leaders for talks with HH The Dalai Lama and the Tibet-Government-in-exile at Dharamsala

Talks focused on Tibet's self-determination and the forthcoming legislation passed by US Congress on Tibet's political future.

Notable was also the fact that the 10Member US Congressional Delegation made an official call on Indian PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi.

China officially protested on the above developments. That it did so, is obvious that the geopolitical message has gone home.

Taiwan and India in recent years have seen remarkable political and trade inter-actions. These extend from India permitting Taiwan to open additional Trade Offices in India, an euphemism for Consular Offices and collaboration in 'Chip-Manufactures' critical for advanced military systems.

Some time ago, India's three Former Service Chiefs were permitted to travel to Taiwan to participate in a Taiwan think-tank 'Security Seminar'.

Significant, is the enlarged Taiwan-India negotiations and steps towards Taiwan's participation in India's ambitious program of setting up global scale semi-conductors 'chip manufacturing' in India. Taiwan leads the global trade in chips-manufactures.

On the third China's Core issue of South China Sea. India has come a long way ahead when an Indian Naval Chief was asked to resign by the previous political dispensation for remarks on South Cina Sea disputes.

PM Modi's 'Act East' policy is not only limited to political relations with East Asian countries but also geopolitical moves of rotational deployments of Indian Navy in South China Sea for exercises with friendly Navies,

India's most significant geopolitical move in relation to China's South China Sea 'Core Issue' has been the sale of three batteries of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles to the Philippines. India-Philippines security cooperation is on the increase.

Philippines recently has come under intensified Chinese military coercion and aggression in South China Sea.

China rightfully has no grounds to protest against India when for decades China had been indulging in heavy arms-buildup of Pakistan Army against India.

Finally, in the 21st Century, where short of war, where China has been long playing power-games of creation of strategic pressure-points against its adversaries like India, extending from Pakistan to its 'String of Pearls' strategy in Indian Ocean, India's geopolitical push-back against China on its critical 'Core Issues' is a welcome policy development, under present political dispensation.

India has belatedly recognized after decades of 'China Timidity' policies that China's aggressive moves against India can be checkmated only by creation of Indian geopolitical counter-pressure points against China's 'Core Issues' and which finds resonance both at the global level and also more pointedly at the Indo Pacific level.

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CHINA'S MEDDLING IN UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2024 AGAINST HIM CONFIRMED BY PRESIDENT BIDEN: MY PREDICTION MARCH 09, 2924, VINDICATED

 Predicted in my article of March 09, 2024 "China Reverses its Preferences in United States Presidential Elections 2024" was that China would go all out to get President Joe Biden defeated in forthcoming elections by use of Influence Operations/Hybrid Warfare.

The prediction made now stands vindicated with President Biden in recent interview with Editor-in-Chief, TIMES Newsmagazine, carried in latest June issue, quoted as asserting that "The meddling is now visible". TIMES also reported that White House officials were concerned and monitoring the Chinese trend.

Hammered in my writings for over two decades was a singular reality that the United States, so well versed in 'realpolitiks', should recognize that Communist China is an inveterate enemy of the United States. 

The United States consciously ignored such reality checks on China and wasted the first quarter of this Century in molly-coddling China in the vain hope that Chia could be regained as a strategic asset against Russia.

In this quarter of a century, flawed US policies facilitated China's un-checkmated exponential expansion of its Armed Forces and China's propensity to use "Force" against its neighbors from India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet to South China Sea and US Allies in the Pacific.

The belated process of checkmating China was initiated by President Trump and followed up more assiduously by President Biden.

As highlighted by me in my March 09,2024 post was that in the forthcoming US presidential elections the choice facing China was in choosing between "Two Devils", the characteristic portrayal of all demonized US Presidents. 

China seems to have opted for the 'Lesser Devil' in its revised assessment of President Trump if he is successful in his re-election bid in 2024.

China's famous "Swing Strategy" which earlier oscillated between United States and Former Soviet Union now extends to 'Switching Preferences" in US presidential elections.

China seemingly fails to realize that in 2024, the widely held perception within US policy establishment and public opinion is that China is intent on undermining United States global predominance.

With the above bipartisan mood in the United States could President Trump, if he wins the election, soften US 'Hard Line' stances against China? Seems unlikely.

Finally, with geopolitics stacked against China currently, China can be expected to intensify its "meddling in US presidential elections against President Biden" to reach an all-time high. 

CHINA'S GLOBAL DISRUPTIVE STRATEGIES 2024 MERITS IMPOSING COSTS BY UNITED STATES, EUROPE & INDO PACIFIC POWERSS

Conspicuously standing out in 2024 is Communist China's disruptive strategies spanning Europe, Middle East and Indo Pacific. The picture emerges more sinister when in its diabolical strategies, China has now prevailed over Russia to join its disruptive strategies due Russian strategic compulsions post-Ukraine War.

China has thus far managed to continue unimpeded in destabilizing all these strategically vital regions largely due to political permissiveness of United States and Europe.

United States adopted misperceived and ill-advised strategies on China clouded by its obsession to play the China Card against Russia. Lucrative China markets for US hi-tech business giants was an irresistible attraction.  

Major European countries--France, UK, and Germany specially crafted their permissive policies on China solely determined by the vast Chuna market.

In 2024, it has finally dawned on United States, Europe and Indo Pacific Powers that China was not a 'benign power' which could contribute to global and regional stability. China is now perceived as a 'disruptive power'   duplicitously intent on undermining the security interests of United States, NATO and US Allies/Strategic Partners.

In 2024, when China and the Russia-China Axis, rightly now to be read as China-Russia Axis figures as topmost threat perception amongst all these Powers the vexing challenge is as to how 'short of war' can the China Threat be neutralized.

United States, Europe, and Indo Pacific Powers now need to impose heavy costs on Communist China where it hurts China the most.

Communist China must be denied access to all the markets in United States, Europe. Japan, India and Australia. China's unrestricted access to 'Free World's' markets not only made China's economic boom but also provided vast funds for China's exponential expansion of its armed forces and its aggression.

China needs to be denied access to 'Advanced & High Technologies' of United States and the West. Chinese industrial espionage should be swiftly and heavily punished.

China needs to be 'diplomatically isolated' at all international forums. United States should set an example in this direction by not even giving the faintest semblance of China Appeasement, China Hedging and Risk Aversion.

China's genocide in Occupied Tibet and Occupied Sinkiang should now be vocally pursued in world's capitals to show up the 'Darker Deeds' of China against Occupied Territories. United States has done well to pass a Congressional Bill on Tibet's self-determination.

Only the barest of diplomatic protocol be maintained with China. This applies pointedly to India also where Indian trade with China is heavily lopsided in favor of China. 

The shortest way to end the Ukraine War in which China is heavily involved in "Sustaining & Prolonging" Russia's Invasion of Ukraine by arms, military equipment and buying Russian oil, is to impose "Heavy Costs" on China's involvement.

Russia without Chinese war-waging sustenance would end up with inability to wage war in Ukraine and lead possibly to an unconditional Russian exit from Ukraine.

United States and its Allies, if they execute the strategy of imposing heavy costs on China could profitably end up with killing two birds with one stone.

Rusia enfeebled, would be no strategic asset for China in Indo Pacific and China faced with a 'United Response and Determination' to impose heavy costs on China for its strategic delinquencies would be deterred from its predatory designs on its peripheries and South China Sea in IndoPacific.

Finally, would economic costs that would be inflicted on China be effective and work? They would work as China's economy is now sluggish, US & Western businesses are relocating from China and Foreign Direct Investment in China is drying up. In its wake, a domestic upheaval could be in the offing.

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