NEW US PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN OPTS TO CONTINUE UNITED STATES 'HARD LINE' STRATEGIES AGAINST CHINA'S MILITARY EXPNASIONISM

United States new President Joe Biden has wisely opted to continue American 'Hard Line' strategies against China in view of China unwiling to relent from muscular militray expansionist policies not only against South China Sea victims of Chinese expansionism like Vietnam and the Philippines but also against Asia's two major Emerged Powers like India and Japan.

US President Biden by doing so has signalled to China in clear terms that with change of US Presidency, no strategic space exists for China to feel emboldened that United States will lapse into US Democratic Party Presidents propensity to be permissive on China's expansionist impulses in Indo Pacific Region.

Flowing from the above, China much chagrined by President Biden's decision to continue US 'Hard Line' strategies against China has led to enhanced levels of China's militray provocations against Japan, Chinese Air Force intrusions in Taiwan's airspace and Philippines reefs in the South China Sea being swarmed by Chinese militia vessels numbering 200.

In terms of impact of the above, Japan and India have fast-tracked the militray upgradation of their respective Armed Forces. Smaller nations of the Indo Pacific have also resorted to similar military upgradations.

Noticeably, the four QUAD Nations seem to have intensified their Joint Naval Exercises both multilaterally and bilaterally. India which was so far shying away from actively visible QUAD manifestations has now come to the fore shedding its earlier inhibitions araising from mistaken sentiments of not displeasing China. 

 

So in April 2021 whatis clearly visible is that Asian Giants in contention with China like India and Japan have visibly signalled that they are ready to complement United States resolve under President Biden that a recalictrant China bent on shaking the foundations of a 'Rules Based Indo Pacific Order' . Invariably, if China continues in its existing challenging of Indo Pacific security then possibilities exist of a wider US-China armed conflict. In such an eventuality, no strategic space would accrue for 'Fence Sitters' in the Indo Pacific Region.

FORMER UNITED STATES PRESIDENT TRUMP'S LEGACY TO INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Former US President Trump has in my assessment left a formidable legacy to follow on Indo Pacific Security in terms of checkmating China's unrestrained military aggresiveness rampage across the vast expanse of the Indo Pacific Region trampling on the sovereignty of its weaker ASEAN neigbours, militraily coercing Japan and Taiwan and presently engaged in headlong military confrontation with Sub-Continental sized India, a vitrual equal, in the sensitive Eastern Ladakh region bordering China Occupied Tibet.

Setting aside United States domestic political opinions of former President Trump, what needs to be strategically and objectively viewed is that former President Trump contributed greatly to the overall security template of the Indo Pacific. This centered prmarily on shedding the 'China Hedging' strategies and 'Risk Aversion' policiess of past US Presidents when it came to China's growing military assertiveness to the extent of throwing the military gauntlet at the United States as evidenced in South China Sea and against Taiwan.

Resorting to the strategy of 'War by Other Means' President Trump engaged China in a US-China Trade War and hurting China where it hurts most. The Chinese economy is noticeably on a slow-down stage and likely to cause domestic political problems. It did distract China from some of its expansionism instincts.

In the South China Sea President Trump ordered intensification of US Navy FONOPs operations besides motivating Japanese  Navy also to participate in naval patrols. The United States seems to have sensitised major European Nations also to the China Threat in the Indo Pacific resluting in France and  UK declaring their intentions to send French Navy and Royal Navy on South China Sea missions.

The QUAD Maritime Iitiative led by the UnitedStates and comprising Japan, Australia and India was put in a resurgent mode by President Trump after it had gone into a slumber since 2006 or so. Navies of the QUAD Nations now exrecise regularly both in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. QUAD's significance has not been lost on China which is seriously concerned as it has the potential to checkmate China's maritime ambitions of expansion.

President Trump's most significant contribution to Indo Pacific security has been to draw-in India into a more active  and substantial US-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. It cannot be overlooked that with India on its side theUS-led informal Coalition of Democracies gets that much more weightier and as a dampner and game-changing counterweight to China's militarism. To that end, the security profile of the Coalition of Democracies against the China Threat gets that much more enhanced.

Concluding, it needs to be emphasised and over-emphasised that the China Threat is a potent and live threat to Indo Pacific Security and that the United States incoming President Joe Biden also needs to remain equally alive to the strategic reality that the China Threat is a long term threat primarily targetted at the United States and it does not matter to China as to which political dispensation US Presidents follow in the coming decades.

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA WITNESSES GREATER EUROPEAN NAVIES INVOLVEMENT

South China Sea so far did not engage much attention of European Nations Navies in terms of naval patrols to indicate and establish their presence signalling strategic interest in this crucial maritime expanse.

European apathy in not giving due strategic attention to the South China Sea in their strategic calculus presumably arose from  a combination of three or four factors.

South China Sea till middle of last decade had not assumed the military turbulence that characterises it in 2020 as a result of China's unbridled military aggressiveness and brinkmanship to establish China's sovereignty and dominance over the entire South China Sea.

European Nations found assurance in the belief in past years that the United States military power and might would be able to checkmate China's military adventurism in South China Sea.

European Nations economies were inextricably tied up with their China-Trade and European Nations were loathe to ruffle China by increasing their Naval Patrols in Indian Ocean and particularly extending to South China Sea.

However, in 2020, all the European Nations presumptions on South China Sea security and stability stand proved grievously wrong by China.

China stood emboldened by American hesitation in not resorting to full scale deterrence against China in its predatory forays and aggression South China Sea till US President Trump came along and started confronting China both in South China Sea and China's unilateral exploitation of its trade relations with United States.

China also stood emboldened in defying United States on the South China Sea conscious of the fact that European Nations stood apathetically unresponsive to the growing turbulence in South China Sea.

Resultantly, what developed was that China carried an exponential expansion of a 'blue water' Chinese Navy with its eyes not only on South China Sea but also on Indian Ocean and as afar as the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. It also began military occupation of South China Sea islands belonging to Vietnam and Philippines

While European Nations Navies like those of France and Britain maintained their presence in the Indian Ocean but they had not extended their naval presence to the South China Sea.

As 2020 drew to a close European Nations rattled by China's unrestrained belligerence not only in South China Sea and Indian Ocean but also with Chinese Navy Bases in Gwadur in Pakistan and in Djibouti on the Red Sea coupled with  Chinese interference in geopolitics of Levant & Eastern Mediterranean woke up belatedly to the reality that China was moving into European traditional areas of influence.

Emerging from the above realisations and conscious of the fact that China was no longer a responsible stakeholder in global security and stability, European Nations have recently decided that French, British an Navies would now be sending their Navy warships on patrols to South China Sea.

South East Asian nations particularly Vietnam and Philippines would feel encouraged that not only the United States, Japan, India and Australia stand by them on the South China Sea against Chinese aggression but also that France, Germany and Britain have signalled to China that it is high time that China behaves like a responsible nation and desist from its disruptive strategies especially against smaller neighbours.

 

 

 

UNITED STATES-INDIA STRAEGIC PARTNERSHIP TOUCHES NEW HEIGHTS 2020

The China Threat factor plaguing the security and stability of Indo Pacific Asia's vast landmass and maritime expanses has galvanised United States and India to touch new heights in 2020 in the two decades old US-India Strategic Partnership which evolved at the turn of the 21st Century.

The US-India Strategic Partnership in 2020 without the trappings of a formal military alliance and institutional mechanisms has yet all the mechanisms in the form of a series of " Defence Agreements" signed by both countries enabling and facilitating a wide spectrum of military cooperation and coordination between United States and India and their Armed Forces.

These Defence Agreements range from BECA (Basic Exchange& Cooperation Agreement); LEMOA ( Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement); to COMCASA (Communications Compatibility & Security Agreement) encompassing sharing of Geospatial Intelligence for precision targeting of Indian, use of each others logistics bases and facilities and facilitate United States to provide encrypted communications equipment.

Overarching the above are the Annual 2+2 Meets of the Foreign and Defence Ministers Dialogue for mutual discussion on security issues and defence exchanges cooperation. The Third Annual Dialogue is scheduled for the next week in New Delhi.

This year's Dialogue Meet will be significant as it comes against the backdrop of China's military clashes with India in Eastern Ladakh, South China Sea escalation by China and China's threatening and aggressive provocations against Taiwan.

Significantly, QUAD Initiative hat represents most intensely the new strategic heights that India has touched in US-India Strategic Partnership because it transcends the bilateral US-India security cooperation and extends to Multilateral Naval Cooperation between India and United States Indo Pacific Allies comprising Japan and Australia.

Concluding, suffice it to state, that in view of the burgeoning China Threat to Indo Pacific Security and Stability, United States and India have drawn closer to forge institutional mechanisms for greater coordination of their strategic convergences posed by China's recent military expansionist impulses.

In terms of perspectives it can be asserted that viewing the QUAD Initiative as a trend-setting indicator that binds India to the United States, Japan and Australia in 2020 inherently carries promises of the emergence of an "Asian NATO' with China intent on military aggrandisement regardless of military consequences which could rebound on its strategic waywardness.

 

 

 

JAPAN'S STRAEGIC CALCULUS IN SOUTH EAST ASIA PRIORITISES VIETNAM AND INDONESIA

South East Asia has traditionally figured high in Japan's strategic calculus for decades due to its geostrategic location astride the South China Sea through which pass Japan's lifelines of economic survival---the Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) which traverse the South China Sea.

Not surprisingly therefore that the new Japanese Prime Minister Suga's first maiden foreign policy visit starts with visits to two major countries of South  East Asia----Vietnam and Indonesia.

Vietnam and Indonesia by virtue of their geographical location and spread virtually dominate large swathes of the South China Sea and more significantly when the South China Sea takes an Eastward turn towards Singapore and Straits of Malacca.

Vietnam has been for long subjected to China's military aggression and occupation of Vietnamese Islands in South China Sea, moreso, after Chinese President Xi Jinping assumed power in China. China continues relentlessly with its political and military coercion of Vietnam and military confrontation with Vietnam in South China Sea.

Indonesia till recently was a mute spectator of China's predatory aggression in South China Sea against the Philippines and Vietnam. In recent months China commenced repetition of its predatory moves in South China Sea against Indonesia also. Startled by China's menacing moves into maritime areas of Indonesia, the nation has been forced to approach the United Nations on the threat from China. Indonesia is the largest country in South East Asia with sizeable Armed Forces.

Comparatively, Japan's foreign policy prime focus in South East Asia has been on Vietnam even when United States had not established full diplomatic relations with Vietnam.

Japan-Vietnam relations in 2020 can be stated as being comprehensive encompassing all domains from political, economic and military.

Vietnam's centrality in Japan's South East Asian policies stand that much more amplified with the China Threat manifesting itself menacingly in South China Sea against Vietnam and the China Threat to Japanese Senkaku Islands in East China Sea. Strong strategic convergences exist today between Japan and Vietnam.

Besides sizeable Japanese economic investments in Vietnam there has been a growing trend in Japan-Vietnam security cooperation in terms of Japan aiding Vietnam's military -capacity building to face China Threat. in South China Sea. Japanese Navy on South China Sea naval patrols with US Navy call on Vietnamese Navy major naval base at Cam Ranh Bay.

Japanese PM Suga's forthcoming visit to Vietnam besides signalling Japan's intentions to strategically invest in Vietnam in relation to China Threat to Japan's SLOCs is likely to focus heavily on enhanced  security cooperation in backroom discussions.

Indonesia is also critical for Japan's security for the same reasons as outlined above. Even though Indonesia has yet to face the full fury of the China Threat like Vietnam, recent events may prompt Indonesia to be more open and receptive to security initiatives with Japan and the United States.

One can therefore hope that Japanese Prime Minister Suga's visits to Japan and Indonesia will be productive visits especially in relation to addressing mutual security concerns.

In Conclusion, it can be asserted that South East Asia Region  as a whole figures strongly in strategic convergences of United States and Japan in relation to China Threat. Both the United States and Japan put together have the Will and Capacity to provide South East Asia an existential counterweight against the China Threat.