JAPAN'S END OF PRIME MIISTER ABE'S ERA-REFLECTIONS

Japan's longest serving PM Shinzo Abe's resignation on health grounds last week marks the end of an eventful era in terms of game-changing policy initiations pertaining to Japan's national security postures and diplomatic overdrive to add substance to expanding Japan's diplomatic profile befitting a Major Power in Indo Pacific Region.

PM Abe is placed by me in the mould of past Japanese Prime Ministers like Nakasone and Koizumi who similarly played a significant role in beefing up Japan's military capacities and capabilities besides adding value to more than half a century old US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty.

In my estimation Japanese Prime Ministers Nakasone, Koizumi and Shinzo Abe were cast in the true Samurai mould ----determined warriors sensitive to Japan's National Honour and Sovereignty against all threats.

There was nothing apologetic about these three-named Japanese Prime Ministers in enhancing Japan's military and security profiles against evolving threats in Indo Pacific mainly emerging from China. This in the face of binding restrictions of Japan's Peace Constitution.

In the second decade of the 21st Century as the China Threat assumed alarming contours directly threatening  Japan's national security both in East China Sea over Japan's Senkaku Islands illegally claimed by China and China's military  expansionism in the South China Sea threatening Japan's economic and energy lifelines, PM Abe hyperactively but in muted style quietly enhanced the military capability of Japanese Armed Forces to deter China from both political and military coercion of Japan

To supplement the above,PM Abe strengthened further Japan's security ties with the United States and as evidence of his quiet but effective diplomatic skills PM Abe forged a strong personal relationship with US President Trump.

In India PM Abe will be long remembered for upgrading the Japan- India relationship along with Indian PM Narendra Modi to a Global Special Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The personal chemistry between PM Abe of Japan and Indian PM Modi has put into place a vibrant security-oriented Japan-India relationship with shared and convergent strategic views on Indo Pacific security threats and global threats.

PM Abe also was in the process of effective consultations with Russian President Putin to smoothen the legacy irritants that have impeded strong political relations between Japan and Russia.

Inn effect, the vibrant Japan-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was a notice to China that it had to contend now not only with Japan and India as single-nation entities but as an Indo Pacific or Asian Coalition of Asia's two Major Emerged Powers with shred strategic convergences on the China Threat.

PM Abe leaves behind a strong and enduring legacy for his successor PM Suga in terms of Japan's enhanced diplomatic and military profiles and policies to build upon and provide continuity to Japan's national sensitivities on its National Honour and Sovereignty.

CHINA PERSISTS IN CONFLICT ESCALATION ON INDIA'S HIMALAYAN BORDERS WITH CHINA OCCUPIED TIBET

China's propensity to impose its will by use of military force or political coercion on its neighbours whether on disputed land borders or maritime boundaries is a harsh reality for South East Asia nations as manifested in its illegal sovereignty claims over South China Sea.

China was so impelled because South East nations primarily Vietnam and the Philippines were smaller nations as compared to China's brute military might.

China was also so impelled by the fact hat the United States previous Presidents did not call-off China's bullying bluffs against its weaker neighbours.

China in 2020 has now chosen to display the same propensity against India's Himalayan land borders with China Occupied Tibet which China disputes.

Since April 2020 China has embarked on a process of altering the uneasy military confrontationist status quo on India's Eastern Ladakh Borders by the same 'salami-slicing' tactics that it so successfully employed in the South China Sea.

China was in a rude shock when its military expansionism on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) was successfully checkmated by the combat-proven Indian Army. As reflected in an earlier Blog on this BlogSpot, Indian Army with a loss of 20 Bravehearts killed nearly three times 60 Chinese PLA soldiers, and notably without use of fire-arms in hand to hand unarmed combat.

China in its wake at high-level diplomatic and military dialogues in the wake of the above agreed on disengagement on the LAC and de-escalation of military confrontation.

But China as is its wont experienced by both India and South East nations treacherously went back on its commitments and stealthily commenced operations to occupy some dominating features overlooking the LAC which were not on its side. 

India this time reversed roles and Indian Army in swift pre-emptive military operations occupied the China-coveted dominating mountain tops.

In September 2020, India's borders in Ladakh resting on China Occupied Tibet are witnessing intense military confrontation with India having pumped in Indian Army Formations to match Chinese PLA military increase in force levels. 

China miscalculated India's resolve under leadership of PM Narendra Modi and the Indian Army in a high state of War Preparedness no longer starved of funds for the same. Unlike 1962, Indian Air Force stands also deployed on front-line Air Bases signalling intent that India to defend its sovereignty will not hesitate to resort to air warfare

Overall, China-India military confrontation in Eastern Ladakh is in a tinder-box explosive situation as China now is at a loss as to how to' Save Face' after igniting its military misadventure against India.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

INDIA'S DOUBLE MILITARY AND DIGITALSTRIKES AGAINST CHINA'S MILITARY ADVENTURISM AGAINST INDIA SEPTEMBER 2020

India under indomitable leadership of PM Narendra Modi has in September 2020 set an unprecedented example for future Indian Prime Ministers and more importantly for Indo Pacific nations, especially ASEAN countries, that China's military adventurism against its neighbours has not only to be stood upto but also pushed back.

Since April 2020 more noticeably China was engaged in altering the territorial and military status quo along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh to add more depth to military vulnerabilities to its Aksai Chin Highway built through illegally annexed China Occupied Aksai Chin of India's Ladakh Union Territory during Nehruvian era.

The above resulted in the first ever direct military clashes after four decades at Galwan in which Indian Army lost 20 of its Bravehearts including the intrepid Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar but not before killing nearly 50 Chinese PLA soldiers. China first denied so on its losses but TV visuals of Chines tombstones in that area were a giveaway.

In its wake China adopted a duplicitous strategy of diplomatic and military dialogues with India for de-escalation on the borders of China Occupied Tibet on one hand but in tandem resorting to surreptiously 'Salami Slicing' tactics, (reminiscent of its South China Sea military adventurism) to occupy dominating heights in area of Southern Pang gong Tso Lake---this again to change the status quo to their advantage.

Indian Army was alive and prepared to offset China's treachery and on night of August 29/30 pre-empted Chinese PLA military moves by military actions both in occupation of dominating heights and also pushing back Chinese PLA positions entrenched in the buffer zones along the Line of Actual Control.

Some reports also indicate that in the process of the above-said military operations the Indian Army has captured 25-30 Chinese PLA soldiers.

The Indian Government  under PM Narendra  Modi alongside launched a 'digital strike' against China by banning 118 more Chinese  Apps flourishing in India including PUBG. With Indian viewers contributing the bulk of China's revenues from Chinese Apps this latest 'digital strike' was significant.

India thereby signalled to China  that China's duplicitous military adventurism against India which seems to have acquired pace ad momentum under Chinese President Xi Jinping will be firmly met strongly by India adopting a Dual Strategy of Indian Army military face-offs and also economically by hurting China where it hurts most---economic losses accruing from revenue s from Indian markets. 

Contextually, the ASEAN nations most affected by China's military expansionism violating their national sovereignties' and maritime possessions in South China Sea should borrow a leaf from India's current firm resolve to not only face China squarely but also with resolve push China to 'BACKOFF'.

Easier said than done but then ASEAN has to make a beginning by both military firmness and cutting off China's economic supply chains. As reflected in an earlier Paper on this Blog, the first step is Joint Naval Patrols by ASEAN Navies in South China Sea.

China-India military confrontation is there for a long haul and it seems that the Modi Government is prepared for it backed by strong domestic political support of the Indian people at large who seceverely DISTRUST CHINA ever since 1962 stab in the back.

 

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE UNITED STATE-CHINA ARMED CONFLICT

The South China Sea  is currently hearing incessantly the sounds of 'Drums of War' as China instead of submitting to international diplomatic norms of conflict-resolution is indulging in extreme military  provocations of ballistic missiles firings in this China Occupied Maritime Expanse to shoo  away two US Navy Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups presence in the region.

United States naval presence in the South China Sea along with Navies of US-allied Nations is aimed at ensuring the freedom of movement ad navigation of international shipping against Chinese Navy interference and coercion.

Today the scenario that is emerging in the South China Sea which connects the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean is one of 'Clash of Wills' between the United States and a China not only reluctant but also defiant to let go of its illegal hold over the South China Sea.

'Clash of Wills' between the United States as the sole Superpower in the world and the predominant Power in the Indo Pacific Region and China as the 'Revisionist Power' seeking political and military exit of the United States from the Region inherently carries within it the seeds of armed conflict.

The US-China 'Clash of Wills' witnesses' the ranging of United States asymmetrical military might which has ensured Indo Pacific security and stability for over seven decades with the heady newly-created exponential growing Chinese Military Power impelled by revisionist impulses.

China seems to be oblivious of United States vast asymmetrical superiority in geopolitical and military might of the United States over China. Mere possession by China of a vast, but inferior, nuclear weapons arsenal and missiles arsenal does not endow China with  a fighting chance to prevail militarily over the United Stes or deter it from enforcing the global writ on the illegality of China's untenable hold over the South Chia Sea.

China seems to be in a reckless downslide of military adventurism and expansionism on all its peripheries. China today especially after its criminal callousness in relation to global spared of China Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic has been pushed into even greater diplomatic and economic isolation.

The above combined with ethnic genocidal suppression in Xingjian and Tibet, suppression in Hong Kong and Taiwan as a 'critical 'Core Point' heading for explosion is likely to push China into further military adventurism to divert growing domestic political dissent against Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China is therefore likely to whip up emotive Han Nationalism domestic sentiments by military adventurism against Taiwan and in South China Sea. 

Both on Taiwan and in the South China Sea  Chinese military adventurism will run headlong against United States recently awakened political will and resolve  that China needs now to be checkmated before it assumes more threatening contours against the United States national interests and the security of United States Allies and Strategic Partners in the Indo Pacific.

With such a contextual backdrop as outline above, it can be asserted that China is heading towards an inevitable military conflict with the United States in the South China Sea and over Taiwan too.

The South China Sea in the coming months could most likely witness increasing China-United States clashes ranging from incidents at sea to even  United States major military operations against some of China's illegally constructed "Artificial Islands' with military fortifications to establish 'Full Spectrum' military dominance over the South China Sea.

In this ensuing likely 'Clash of Wills' between China and the United States in the South China Sea, irrespective of US Presidential Elections November 2020 outcome, no second guesses are required as to who will prevail.

 

 

INDIA'S ACT EAST POLICY AND THE "QUAD"

India graduated from its 'Look East' policy enunciated in 1990s by India's game-changer Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao to an active 'Act East' policy since 2014 under current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India's 'Look East' policy was an economic imperative which PM Narasimha Rao synchronised with his authorship of India's economic liberalisation which put India on the track of fast unfettered economic growth.

Reflected in my past writings was the reality that while India's 'Look East' policy was an economic imperative, India's 'Act East' policy under PM Narendra Modi was a "strategic imperative" as India widened its strategic horizons under BJP's second Prime Minister. 

India under its 'Act East' policy undertook a well-calibrated strategy of imitating strategic partnerships with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam which were central to security of East Asia or the Western Pacific as an insurance against China's not so benign military rise.

This was in tandem with the growing evolution of the US-India Strategic Partnership which emerged at the turn of the Millennium but matured to substantive proportions only by the second decade of he 21st Century.

The 'QUAD' Concept earlier enunciated by President Brush in the first decade of the 21st Century did not really take-off with United States strategic distractions in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the lingering ambiguities of US policies where 'China Hedging' still persisted.

India therefore quite naturally was also hedging on the QUAD Concept due to its own China Hedging wavering compulsions.

The QUAD Concept was actively revived by the US Trump Administration which soon realised the futility of United States China-policy of giving-in to China on vital issues like the South China Sea.

Political signalling by President Trump of United States hardening of stances on China encouraged the Indian policy establishment to revise its perspectives on the crucial importance of the QUAD Grouping of United States, Japan, India and Australia as an existential counterweight to China's increasing 'Expansionist Impulses'.

India was therefore taking a logical yet graduated step from 'Look East' policy to 'Act East' policy and now as an active participant in the 'QUAD Grouping' of Nations with strategic convergences on the burgeoning China Threat to Indo Pacific Security.

Contextually therefore India in 2020 has not only further reinforced its security relationships with the United States and Japan but this year extended its Strategic Partnership with Australia to include MOUs on security cooperation and more notably 'Logistics Sharing & Access' to each others logistics facilities.

With the above steps including Australia's participation in future EX-MALABAR naval exercises India apparently has become far more integrated in the QUAD Grouping whose overall aim is to jointly ensure the freedom of global commons like the South China Sea which has  seen Chinese aggressive expansionism and checkmating China's growing intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

In terms of perspectives, it needs to be observed that the QUAD Grouping as a strong potent Naval Grouping is in India's long rang strategic interests and security which should increasingly find more acceptance within India amongst all right thinking Indians who value India's 'Sovereignty' and 'National Honour as India grapples with China's increasing 'Expansionism' especially in relation to Idia's national interests.