UNITED STATES TRUMP 2.0 REVERTS TO 'CHINA-HEDGING' AND 'RISK-AVERSION' POLICY TO OFFSET GROWING GEOPOLITICAL ISOLATION

In marked contrast to US President Trump 2.0 imperious postures in 2025 across the global geopolitical landscape, what singularly stands out is Trump 2.0 virtual appeasement of China by totally reversing Trump 1.0 (2016-20) 'Hard Line' strategy.

United States under President Trump 2.0 seemingly fearful of China's retaliatory economic and massive military power, seems in 2025-26 to have reverted to older versions of US-Strategy of "China-Hedging' and 'Risk Aversion'.

President Trump 2.0 gave early notice of his inclination of change of China-policy during his bid for second-term election campaign.

Retrospectively, analyzing after corelating it with Trump 2.0 postures, one could surmise that Trump 1.0 China-postures were the 'China-bullying' phase. That China with its 'brinkmanship propensities' stood its ground in the Trade Wars drove home to Trump that China was not ready to take bullying strategies by Trump.

China was well prepared and ready with contingency plans to deal with a belligerent Trump 2.o unlike other Major Powers who had not tasted Trump 1.0 Trade Wars.

Geopolitically, in January 2025, when President Trump began his second term, the challenges facing the United States emerged more diverse and complex. 

In Europe, Russia's invasion of Ukraine was ongoing in its third year, more intense and devastating.

 China without putting 'boots on the ground' was heavily subsidizing Russia's Ukraine Offensives militarily and economically.

The Middle East abounded with military conflicts. The chief of which and most inflammable being Iran which the United States could not suppress. Israel was besieged by Iranian military proxy armed militias from Houthis disrupting the Red Sea to Hamas and Hezbollah besieging Israel.

Russia and China were strong supporters of Iran with both having separate Mutual Security Agreements with Iran. Iran's military inventories are of Russian and Chinese origin, besides sizeable indigenous defence production infrastructure.              

In effect, a Russia-Iran-China Axis was being perceived in Middle East operating against the United States and Israel.

China had outclassed the American unquestioned predominance in the Pacific by attaining full-spectrum dominance over the South China Sea and placing the United States on uninterrupted strategic tenterhooks with prospects of Taiwan Invasion----a nightmare for United States credibility as a credible nett provider n of security in the Pacific.

 The United States in 2026 is faced by a Russia-China-North Korea Axis in the Western Pacific, singly and jointly, are in military confrontation with the United States and all three are Nuclear Weapons Powers with Missiles Arsenals capable of hitting the United States.

China figuring intensely against United States security interests and influence from Europe to Middle East to Pacific, seems to have weighed heavily in forcing President Trump 2.o to apply 'Reverse Gears' to Trump 1.o ' Hard Line' Strategy against China. 

 President Trump in the run-up to his second term as President seems to have awoken to the fact that the United States could not defeat China with its massive economic and military resources.

The United States lack of economic or military compellance power over China thus prompted President Trump to induce and enlist China along with the United States in a "G-2" Global Security Management setup.

This G2 Concept earlier proposed by President Obama around 20025-08 did not take off. Revived by President Trump in late 2025, this time too it will fail.

United States in 2026 is in virtual adversarial confrontation with its Allies and Strategic Partners due to President Trump's unpredictable geopolitics and Tariffs Terrorism.

United States growing estrangement in 2026 with virtually the whole world has positioned China to raise its brinkmanship hackles against the United States.

China had declared plans to reunify Taiwan with China Mainland by 2027. This is where China would escalate brinkmanship to peak levels, even war itself.

President Trump is unlikely to defend Taiwan militarily, should China resort to war.

 President Trump aware of United States war-waging limitations in 2026, and minus unqualified geopolitical and military support from its erstwhile Allies, will take the easy "exit route" of adopting 'China Hedging' and 'Risk Aversion' policy to avoid a direct US-China War.

CHINA'S 2026 IMPERATIVES TO CUTOFF STRATEGIC LIFE-SUPPORT TO PAKISTAN ARMY CEASING TO BE A CHINA-ASSET

China ever since the Sino-Indian War 1962 has consistently provided incessant strategic life-support to Pakistan Army which effectively controls and dictates Pakistan's foreign and defence policies. The Chinese aim was to build-up a Chinese 'Proxy' for 'Containment of India' in South Asia.

Pakistan Army despite its emphasis on "Iron Brother" ties with China has spasmodically gravitated towards United States strategic orbit. It pivoted back to China when the transactional ties with United States stood frayed.

 The two major US Military Interventions in Afghanistan and US exit from Afghanistan are glaring examples.

This time around from May 2025 with advent of President Trump 22.0 regime in Washington coinciding with Pakistan's 'Strategic Humiliation' by India in OP SINDOOR in May 2025, and consequent Pakistan's disillusionment with Chinese military inventories made Pakistan Army Chief, now Chief of Defence Forces to strategically repivot towards United States.

Unlike past pivots of Pakistan Army Chiefs towards United States, the events in US-Pakistan from May2025 onwards indicate that while still attempting to keep balanced relations with China, Pakistan Defence Forces Field Marshal Munir now with unprecedented powers over Pakistan's political and security directions has decided to firmly place Pakistan in the American strategic orbit.

Noticeably, General Munir was elevated to rank of Field Marshal soon after Pakistan's crushing military humiliation by India. General Munir is to be held squarely responsible for this defeat.

Analytically, what emerges is that the United States pressurized Pakistan for elevation of General Munir to Field Marshal with unparallel political powers to position at apex level of Pakistan decision-making, a pliable Pakistan Defence Chief to serve American national interests in the region.

The fact that Munir has made three visits to Washington since May 2025 including a Lunch at White House specifically for him vividly illustrates how President Trump has strategically ensnared Pakistan Defence Chief.

Pakistan's strategic moves since May 2025 of inducing Defence Chief Munir needs no repetition. Increased geopolitical and military cooperation and aid by Trump 2.0 has spiraled. retrieving American hold

Brief analysis of President Trump 2.0 reversing gears in South Asian policies can be attributed to Trump Administration likely use of Pakistan as a springboard for inevitable US military invasion of Iran and retrieving hold over Afghanistan's Major Airbases like Bagram and "Neutralizing China's Stranglehold" over Pakistan.

To military minds it should be evident that the very strategic investments that China made in Pakistan to outflank its 'Malacca Dilemma' in terms of Karakoram Highway and Gwadur Port and its Airbase can in reveres be used by United States (courtesy Pakistan Defence Forces) to launch US military interventions against China's hold on Tibet and Xiangjiang--- rich is strategic minerals.

China must seriously deliberate over these unfolding American security challenges unfolding and amplified by Defence Chief Munir offering President Trump leases for prospecting strategic minerals in Baluchistan with added incentive of United States to develop Pasini seaport alongside Gwadur.

Wit such moves as outlined above, China should visualize the emerging picture that Pakistan Defence Chief intends supplanting China with United States in Baluchistan where China has made billions of dollars investments in CPEC Corridor linking China with Gwadur Port. China has already pulled up Pakistan recently for tardy implementation of these projects.

China should now see Pakistan Defence Chief diluting its Chinese military origin inventories with American and Turkish military hardware.

Pakistan Defence Chief's continued imprisonment of Former Pakistan PM Imran Khan and his brutalization, flouting Judiciary relief for him, needs to be viewed By China as inimical to China's interests. Public memory has to be reminded that PM Imran Khan was strongly pro-China and his 'Regime Change' was facilitated by the 'Deep State' setup both in Pakistan and United States.

Geopolitically, it would be wise for China to cut its losses in strategic over-investments in Pakistan. The very rationale of China's strategic life-support to Pakistan Army of proxy 'India Containment' stands knocked out after May 2025 OP SINDOOR, cumulatively heaped after 1965, 1971 and 1999 Pakistan miliary defeats by India. 

Finally, the major strategic deduction for China is that Pakistan is no longer "China's Strategic Asset" but now evolving as United States' "Cats Paw' to make China's Southern Belly as strategically vulnerable.