CHINA-INDIA "STRATEGIC DISTRUST" OVERHANG GRAVELY RULES OUT "SUSTAINABLE THAWS"IN INTENSIFYING MILITARY CONFRONTATION

 

China's ongoing 'geopolitical and geoeconomic compulsions' impelled China in October 2024 to agree to a tactical compromise with India for disengagement of troops at two contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh.

Indian media and strategic community labelling it as a "Thaw" in intensified China-India Military Confrontation on the China Occupied Tibet Border is an overhype and a premature conclusion.

"Strategic Distrust" of China is deeply embedded in India's National Psyche ever since unprovoked 1962 War 'imposed' by China.

"Sustainable Thaw" in China-India relations can therefore be ruled out even in long-term perspective for factors analyzed below.

China is in for a long haul of decades before it can generate "Strategic Trust" in India's National Mindsets.

The major contentious issues which can intensify China-India Military Confrontation are both China-India specific, and also unfolding global geopolitical pressures which could force India's policy moves in directions contradictory to China.

China-India contentious issues likely to unfold anytime and which could intensify and embitter China-India Military Confrontation are as follows: (1) China's unwillingness for Tibet boundary dispute settlement (2) China imposing Dalai Lama's successor on Tibetan Nation (3) China's economic downslide prompting China to resort to divert Chinese domestic public unrest by military escalation on India-China Occupied Tibet Borders.

Detailed analysis will follow in later posts but suffice it to say at present is that the common thread above that runs through all three contentious issues stated above is Tibet and its continued existence as 'China Occupied Tibet,

The Opening Chapter in my Book 'China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives'(22015) titled 'TIBET IS THE CORE ISSUE IN CHINA-INDIA MILITARY CONFRONTATION" can be referred for details on the above issues.

Tibet as a 'Buffer State,' will figure more and more as India's 'Core Security Imperative' in years to come.

Global geopolitical pressures on China having a bearing on China-India Military Confrontation and likely to force China into military escalation on its peripheries are as follows: (1) China losing global geopolitical weightage and co-related India's geopolitical rise (2) US President Trump's advent in Washington leading to greater activation of QUAD's military role and demands on India to shed its aversion to China-Containment (3) China's invasion of Taiwan resulting in US-China Armed Conflict (4) United States intensifying its pressures on China to 'Resolve China-Tibet Dispute' respecting wishes of Tibetan peoples.

The common thread that runs through the above geopolitical pressures are United States China-policy centering on China's 'Core Interests' of Tibet and Taiwan, which China has sworn to defend with military might.

India's policy moves on all of the issues outlined above will run in "Contradiction" to perceived China's national priorities and will result in a darker overhang of "Strategic Distrust" in China-India relations.

In Conclusion, the major observations that emerge are (1) "Sustainable Thaw" in China-India Military Confrontation is an unrealistic proposition (2) India resultantly cannot afford to dilute its military postures on its Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet (3) India will be necessitated to build-up further its "Credible Conventional and Nuclear Deterrence" against China.

Therefore 'China-Hedging'. 'Risk Aversion', and policy obsession to 'Multipolarity' should not figure in India's policy armory.

 

THE CHINA-PAKISTAN AXIS HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT

Global geopolitics and global geoeconomics in 2024-end are throwing up enough indicators that the "Iron Clad" China-Pakistan Axis is heading towards an 'inevitable' strategic denouement. The 'Iron Cladding' on which the China-Pakistan Axis mainly rested in terms of their joint hatred and adversarial stances towards India is "RUSTING" due to India's rise as a Major Power.

Pakistan, reflected for many years in my published Papers, was reduced by China to a 'concubinage relationship' and further reduced by China by a 'colonial vice-like grip' of Pakistan's political and economic dynamics due to Pakistan's economic insolvency.

Pakistan at large today chafes at this colonial hold of China which has ensnared Pakistan into a Chinese debt-trap quagmire. 

Deep anti-China fissures are surfacing within Pakistan, and which cannot be cemented by China's pressures on Pakistan Army to do so.

Three major indicators instantly available last week are instant pointers that strategic denouement is setting-in in the China-Pakistan Axis. These three indicators are: (1) Chinese Ambassador publicly rebuking Pakistan for failing to provide adequate security for Chinese working in Pakistan (2) China hesitating to "reschedule" Pakistan's request for repayment of loans (3) China accepting military disengagement with India in Eastern Ladakh.

Reacting to repeated killings of Chinese engineers working on projects in Pakistan, the Chinese Ambassador, unprecedently, publicly rebuked Pakistan for failure to protect Chinese lives. Unprecedently again, the Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson, publicly dismissed the Chinese Ambassador's rebuke as inappropriate and not following diplomatic norms.

Analytically, the Chinese rebuke, in implicit terms, is that of the Pakistan Army which has deployed nearly two Military Divisions worth of troops for security of Chinese working on projects from Khunjerab in the North to Gwadur on North Arabian Sea coast.

That Pakistan Army could not ensure it, itself, reflects the intense anti-China sentiments that in 2024 pervades within Pakistan.

Notably, China has always dithered on Pakistan's recurring requests to China for financial bailouts, forcing even the most ardent pro-China former Pakistan PM Imran Khan to grudgingly seek loans from US-dominated IMF. Pakistan was bailed out from critical financial crises, not by China, but by Saudi Arabia and UEA financial largesse.

This reality cannot be lost on Pakistan, perceptionally, with its consequent impact on public opinion within Pakistan.

Chinese financial assistance is likely to be further tightened as China increasingly views Pakistan's strategic utility declining in China's strategic calculus.

The China-Pakistan Axis in military terms is likely to be hugely impacted by China last week agreeing with India to disengage in military confrontation at two most contentious points of Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh. 

China may have tactically resorted to do so but in perceptional terms within Pakistan, and moreso within Pakistan Army, amounts to a Chinese climbdown recognizing India's geopolitical and geoeconomic rise.

This process, if continued by China and Pakistan, robs both Nations of their 'Dual Threat' strategy.

Addedly, Pakistan's younger generations, looking for gainful economic employment, are neither interested in Kashmir nor meaningless military confrontation with India. In concrete terms, perceptionally, alignment with China has not improved economic conditions within Pakistan, notwithstanding Chinese and Pakistan Establishment's propaganda.

Furthermore, China's diplomatic isolation on global issues and economic downslide, will induce corresponding reappraisals within Pakistan of China's 'Iron Clad' guarantees to Pakistan's stability and development.

Concluding, what needs to be stressed, without sermonizing, is that the Indian Policy Establishment should keep incessantly joining the dots and press home its advantages, tactically and strategically, by Indian policy measures, to induce within Pakistan the inevitable strategic unravelling of the China-Pakistan Axis.