BIDEN-MODI "SUPER-SUMMIT" IN WASHINGTON JUNE 2023 POSITIONS INDIA ON ASCENDANT POWER TRAJECTORY: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA

Perceptional analysis would firmly indicate that the "Super Summit" between US President Joe Biden and PM Narendra Modi in Washington in end-June 2023 carries unprecedented historical significance in firmly positioning India on an ascendant power trajectory towards emerging as a Major Global Power.

Geopolitical churning, more specifically in the Indo Pacific in the last three years or so have neutralized any diffidence that may have held back both United States and India from capitalizing the full potential of their strategic and security interdependence in the Indo Pacific.

In June 2023, and the years leading to it, China has loomed large and heavily menacing in the threat perceptions of the United States and India. The intensification of the China Threat has nudged both United States and India to dispense with their respective diffidence's and add unprecedented weight and wider dimensions to the US-India Strategic Partnership.

The United States and India with obvious studied deliberation have studiously avoided designating the China Threat in their Joint Communique but it is obvious that the very premise that girds the US-India Strategic Partnership from its inception in 2000 has been the mounting concerns on the China Threat.

In the years in the run-up to June 2023, the constant assertion both by United States and India is their commitment to a "Free, Open and Secure Indo Pacific". Implicit in this assertion is that both United States and India are committed to secure the Indo Pacific---- obviously against China's coercion, aggression and predatory impulses.

The Biden-Modi "Super-Summit" and its major security-centric decisions even those in economic and science & technology domains, stand dissected widely in the media. It is not the intention in this post to repeat them but move on to the implications that arise for China thereof.

China has been heavily impacted by the burgeoning US-India Strategic Partership and especially by the slew of Basic Foundational Security Agreements that have been signed by both countries. These place India virtually as a Major NATO Plis Ally with access to advanced military hardware and technology transfers.

China was rattled beyond reason as evidenced by critical official observations even before PM Modi departed for the Washinton State Visit. China warned India not to become a 'US tool for containment of China'.

So, to begin the examination of implications of the major security-centric decisions of Biden-Modi Super-Summit, it is pertinent to highlight that China fears that the endgame of United States and India in coming decades is the Virtual "Containment of China".

Be that as it may, China in 2013 acutely perceives that the 'Balance of Power' in the Indo Pacific has tilted away from China's favor. The strengthening of the QUAD, the AUKUS Accords, and the return of the Philippines to the US-led security architecture are some examples.

The United States was for decades the predominant Power dominating the Western Pacific.  India's entry into the Western Pacific largely as part of PM Modi's 'Act East' policy has added heavy "strategic ballast to United States strategic predominance.

United States with India in tow now have widened the security dimensions from Asia Pacific to Indo Pacific. This in a strategic manner outflanks China's thrusts in the Middle East.

United States granting India access to advanced US military systems, technology systems, joint development and joint production of jet engines for military aircraft significantly reduces China's asymmetric military superiority over India.

Geopolitically, evident since 2020 is that India can no longer be subjected to political and military coercion by China which had accustomed to doing so prior to 2014.

China will now have to factor-in likely United States responses to any Chinese military aggression against India in the future notwithstanding the absence of a Mutual Security Treaty.

Concluding, it can be summed-up that the major outcome of the Biden-Modi June 2023 Summit is that it places India firmly on an ascendant power trajectory to Major Global Power status.

Worth recalling is that China today figuring as a Major Threat in threat perceptions of India and United States with pretentions of being a Superpower gained 'Power Status' ironically assisted by the United States.

UNITED STATES AND INDIA IN 2023 ARE IN A QUASI-MILITARY ALLIANCE TRANSCENDING A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

The United States-India Strategic Partnership whose inception took place in 2000 has in 2023 evolved into a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership which in form and substance today is a "Quasi-Military Alliance" transcending the dimensions of a mere Strategic Partnership. 

The only difference between a Formal Military Alliance and "Quasi-Military Alliance" is that a Formal Military Alliance is defined by a formal 'Security Treaty' and a "Quasi-Military Alliance" incorporates a set of defence and security cooperation agreements without an over-arching Formal Security Treaty.

In both cases, a formal or quasi-military alliance, the objective is to cater for security cooperation against a 'Common Perceived Threat'. In a formal military alliance, the perceived threat is spelt out in terms of 'capabilities and intentions'.

In a "Quasi-Military Alliance" the 'Perceived Threat' may be spelt out 'explicitly' or 'implicitly' forms the basis of a set of defense and security agreements.

The US-India Comprehensive Special Global Partnership when examined in light of the above parameters deucedly falls into the category of a "Quasi-Military Alliance" both in the bilateral context and also in the multilateral context.

The common perceived threat in the bilateral context is the 'China Threat' which has manifested itself unambiguously in the Indo Pacific against India and the United States.

In the multilateral context, countries extending from South Korea, Japan and Australia too perceive the 'China Threat' directly as impacting on their national security interests. 

When viewed as an integrated whole in relation to the 'China Threat' in Indo Pacific, the security template that has emerged in 2023 in the IndoPacific is a set of bilateral security alliances between United States and South Korea, Japan and Australia and the bilateral US-India Comprehensive Special Global Partnership. Additionally, India has bilateral Strategic partnership agreements with Japan, Australia and South Korea.

Superimposed on the above security template in Indo Pacific are multilateral security groups like the QUAD Security Initiative comprising United States, Japan, India & Australia and AUKUS comprising USA, UK &Australia.

With NATO also perceiving the 'China Threat' to NATO's Southern Flank and with Major European Powers asserting their "stakes" in Indo Pacific security, an Eastern NATO is a possibility that now hovers over the horizon, and this was discussed in my last Paper.

Concluding, it needs to be noted with serious emphasis that however Indian foreign policy planners disavow military alliances, the stark reality in 2023 and likely to be reinforced by unfolding events in IndoPacific is that the 'China Threat' has nudged India into a "Quasi-Military Alliance" with the United States. 

Semantics aside, this is the whole truth and for India's strategic and security good. India needs to position itself securely in a heavily polarized Bipolar World which does not offer India bandwidth to indulge in shibboleths like non-Alignment 2.0 or Multipolarity.