INDO PACIFIC WESTERN FLANK STRATEGICALLY ENDANGERED BY HOSTILE PAKISTAN-RUSSIA-IRAN-CHINA (PRIC) QUARTET

The QUAD Coalition Nations (United States, Japan, India & Australia) long focused strategically on the China Threat to maritime domains of the Pacific Ocean & Indian Ocean seem to have been oblivious to its Western Flank being endangered by the emerging diabolical PRIC Quartet---namely Pakistan. Russia, Iran & China.

PRIC (Acronym) selected by me, is aptly descriptive of this Diabolical Quartet endangering QUAD's Western Flank and predominantly encompasses the wide landmass of Asian Heartland & Southern Asia, simply because strategically the PRIC Quartet can neutralize most of QUAD's strategic objectives in relation to China Threat.

The PRIC Quartet's defining hallmark is that Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China, in 2023, have strong strategic convergences of geopolitical opposition to the United States, and by extension to Japan, India and Australia.

Needless to reiterate that the China Threat figures uppermost in strategic formulations of QUAD Nations, and it is that what binds the QUAD together strongly.

Incorporating Pakistan and Iran in PRIC Quartet enables China-Russia Axis to have a firm and strong foothold on the North Arabian Sea Littoral with Gwadur in Pakistan and Chah Bahar & other Iranian naval bases. 

This enables China & Russia to pose both a land and navel threat to QUAD's Western Flank.

Significantly, the Nations comprising PRIC Quartet all possess Nuclear Weapons. This is in marked contrast to the QUAD Coalition which only has United States and India as Nuclear Weapons States.

In 2023, the PRIC Quartet has not yet reached the multilateral integration of security content as the QUAD Nations. The security linkages are overlapping though bilateral with China and Russia.

The PRIC Quartet is a 'Trend-in Making', my favorite term, which if crystallizes like the QUAD, could endanger the Western Flank of QUAD.

In civilizational terms of Samuel Huntington's thesis, the PRIC Quartet represents the Sinnic-Islamic Coalition with Slavic Russia as an additive.

Concluding, the PRIC Quartet's sprouting will be more significantly impact the United States national security interests not only in Indo Pacific but also West Asia more critically. Undoubtedly, it would have global implications.

The United States should tread cautiously as it attempts to retrieve an "unreliable" Pakistan as 'Frontline State' of China, from its political and economic meltdown.

QUAD NEEDS STRATEGIC FOCUS ON SOUTHERN SEGMENTS OF PACIFIC & INDIAN OCEANS

China's intrusive strategic forays in Southern Pacific Islands and the China-Russia-South Africa Joint Military Exercises should be a source of strategic concern to the QUAD Security Initiative Nations---United States, Japan, India and Australia.

The QUAD, which is basically with a maritime orientation, seems focused on the Northern segments of both Oceans of Indo Pacific with checkmating China, keeping it confined to the Western Pacific where most of its predatory maritime forays have occurred.

China over the last few years has been silently wooing South Pacific Islands in Australia's backyard with various economic inducements. Today China has marshalled considerable clout and presence in South Pacific.

China could achieve this as for many years Australia had Prime Ministers who were 'soft' on China and were oblivious to the strategic aims of China in South Pacific.

The China-Russia Axis, more pronounced post-Ukraine, has sprung into action lately to induce the strategically located Nation of South Africa, rich resources of strategic minerals into joining China and Russia in Joint Military Exercises.

In both cases the main aim of China and Rusia is to wean away QUAD's strategic focus from Western Pacific which is the Pacific littoral of China.

Of the two emerging threats, China's strategic intrusiveness is more potent as it has already established substantial linkages in South Pacific, including security cooperation, especially with Solomon Islands.

Russia-China-South Africa Joint Military Exercises presently need to be viewed as more of 'geopolitical signaling'. However, it is a trend -in -the making and has the potentials to emerge as a potent threat in Southern Indian Ocean which is Idia's strategic backyard.

QUAD therefore needs to pay added strategic focus to the Southern Segments of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.

Concluding, QUAD could ponder over division of, or, added naval responsibilities to Australian Navy for Southern Pacific and Indian Navy for the Southern Indian Ocean. 

As China gets more hemmed-in in Western Pacific it will be tempted to outflank QUAD's naval predominance on its Pacific littoral by strategic forays on Southern Segments of Pacific and Indian Oceans.

 

NATO CHIEF'S VISITS TO SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN IN JANUAARY 2023 STRATEGICALLY SIGNIFICANT

Geopolitically, Russia's year-long attempts to annex Ukraine by invasion and China's threats to militarily annex Taiwan's merger with mainland China have spawned in 2023 deep fears from Europe to Indo Pacific of a disruptive push-back by world's largest combine of Communist Dictatorships.

Contextually, therefore, the recent tour of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg to Japan and South Korea in end-January 2023needs to be viewed in the above context.

Strategically significant is that NATO's strategic gaze and imprints which stood extended only up to involvement in Afghanistan in support of United States now portend that NATO is seized with extension of its strategic gaze to involvement in the security and stability of Indo Pacific, especially Japan and South Korea in Western Pacific.

Major European Powers have singly declared at international forums like the Shangri-la Dialogue that they have vital stakes in security and stability of Indo Pacific.

Recalling notably, both Japan and South Korea are Mutual Security Pact signatories with the United States. Earlier this security mosaic was tailored against the Soviet Threat. 

With disintegration of Soviet Union and the exponential rise of Chinese military power in the first decade of this Century and its aggressive manifestations in the second decade in South China Sea to Japan and South Korea's backyards, the China Threat has emerged as a serious challenge to Japan and South Korea.

The China Threat to Japan and South Korea stands further amplified by China's proxy use of North Korea, nuclear armed courtesy China, for military coercion of these two US Allies.

 North Korea is the 'Force Multiplier' of China against Japan and South Korea along with posing a threat to Homeland United States by its claimed nuclear-tipped IRB BMs

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has spawned wider dimensions of security concerns beyond European Borders and has an over-arching impact on Indo Pacific Security, and more specifically on Japan and South Korea. 

These wider strategic concerns stand generated by the fact that in recent years the Russia-China Strategic Nexus has crystallized deeper as in national security threat perceptions of both United States and Major European Powers, both Russia and China figure prominently.

China just a month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine had declared during Russian President Putin's visit to Beijing that the Russia-China strategic partnership had "No Limits" and further that it was much "More than an Alliance". It was an ominous assertion.

NATOs strategic outreach to Japan and South Korea was therefore a logical corollary arising from the reality that both Japan and South Korea ever after end of World War II in August 1945 have figured in United States security architecture as staunch Allies.

NATO's strategic outreach to Japan and South Korea was visible prominently from last year when both these nations were invited to attend the NATO Summit in Madrid which charted NATO's strategic blueprint for the 2030s.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that NATO both in extending its strategic reach to Indo Pacific and co-opting Japan and South Korea in more proximate security linkages, is in effect creating existential military counterweights in China's backyard as important pieces in overall containment of combined Russia-China Threats.

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