CHINA'S ENHANCED AGGRESSIVENESS PORTENDED UNDER PRESDENT XI JINPING'S UNPRECEDENTED THIRD TERM

 Chinese President Xi Jinping having ruthlessly ensured an unprecedented third term as President of China with absolute control over the Communist Party apparatus and the PLA military machine portends enhanced aggressiveness for Indo Pacific which abounds in China-generated flashpoints.

President Xi Jinping's signature tune in his earlier two Presidencies was adding incendiary contours to China's military aggressiveness and brinkmanship on all of China's peripheries extending from India's Himalayan Frontiers with China Occupied Tibet to the maritime domains of the Western Pacific, notably South China Sea.

President Xi Jinping's ascendancy to power in Beijing in 2012 was significantly marked by China's switch from 'Soft Power' policies to exercise of   'Hard Power' political and military intimidation of its Indo Pacific neighbors.

China's aggressiveness under President Xi was not limited to its Indo Pacific neighbors but also extended to 'challenge' United States supremacy in Western Pacific. China's establishment of 'Full Spectrum' dominance over the South China Sea under President Xi was only belatedly challenged by United States President Trump and thereafter.

 In my assessment, Chinese President fortified by Chinese PLA massed military and naval power and emboldened by United States strategic distraction to Europe over Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be tempted to flex his military muscles on its Indo Pacific peripheries.

China's enhanced aggressiveness during President Xi's third term on its peripheries is also likely to be generated by domestic compulsions of diverting growing political and economic discontent by whipping up Chinese Nationalism.

Concluding, China's enhanced aggressiveness in Indo Pacific assessed as likely during President Xi Jinping's third term because of contextual factors needs to be checkmated by "Enhanced Security Content" of QUAD and forging a US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral. Indo Pacific nations included ASEAN cannot afford to be divided on the China Threat.

UNITED STATES AND INDIA CAN GEOPOLITICALLY ILL-AFFORD STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT AGAINST CHINA THREAT

United States and India in 2022 post-Ukraine can ill-afford to be in strategic denouement with each other when geopolitically measured against the China Threat intensely impacting both United States and India besides generating overall security turbulence in Indo Pacific.

In end-2022, this precisely seems to be underway, seemingly, when the dots are joined of geopolitical events and developments involving United States and India in the aftermath of Ukraine Invasion by Russia which suggest that hairline cracks are threatening the US -India Strategic Partnership.

Strategic Partnerships to be robust thrive on 'Mutual Strategic Trust' and respect for each other's strategic sensitivities. But the opposite seems to be taking place in US-India relations post -Ukraine Invasion by Russia.

Objectively and sequentially analyzing the developing strategic perceptional differences the stage seems to have been set by India with its diplomatic reluctance to condemn Russia over its Ukraine Invasion where Russia indulged in a virtual genocidal 'War of Choice' without any provocations from Ukraine.

Seven months down the line, India is still not naming Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Major Powers and Major Powers-in-the making should have strengths and resilience to take major challenging geopolitical decisions. 

India's reluctance to decouple itself from its 'Russia Obsession' was patiently borne by United States accepting Indian perceptions that India's dependence on Russia weaponry inhibited India from doing so. During this period United States did not even invoke CATSA sanctions against India for purchase of S-00 ADM systems.

However, in end-2022 United States geopolitical patience seems to have been worn out and joining the dots of US-end generated steps suggest that United States strategic denouement with India is setting-in.

Notably, US $ 450 million F-16 upgrade package to Pakistan, postponing Pakistan's $ 140million debt repayment, week-long ongoing visit of Pakistan Army Chief to US, and significantly the Trilateral Defence Ministers Meeting of QUAD Nations in Hawaii of USA, Japan & Australia, minus India, are ominous for India.

India therefore crucially now stares at the following challenges:(1) Geopolitically in 2022 when global geopolitics have turned on its head post-Ukraine Invasion by Russia in favor of United States, should India persist with its 'Russian Hangover'? (2) Global geopolitics in end-2022 is revolving around 'Balance of Power' power-play and offers no bandwidth to India for 'Multilateralism' (3) How long India can keep trading its geopolitical weightage to United States without exhibiting its intentions to be a serious player in "Security Roles" of Indo Pacific security? (4) How long India can "Shirk from Calling Out the China Threat at World Forums"?

Concluding, it needs to be stressed that both United States and India cannot have different perceptions on the China Threat. If that be so, then the Indian answers to the above questions should be obvious.

 The US-India Strategic Partnership forged at the turn of the Milennium was predicated on the China Threat and that hovers more threateningly post-Ukraine. United States and India should therefore not permit any 'Strategic Distrust' to hover above the robustness of US-India Strategic Partnership.

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