CHINA-CENTRIC SECURITY COALITIONS OVERSHADOW INDO PACIFIC ECONOMIC ORGANISATIONS

 In 2021, in the wake of the 'China Threat' being escalated to explosive levels by Communist China under leadership of President Xi Jinping , geopolitical and geostrategic churning in its wake has been marked by the overshadowing of existing Indo Pacific economic organisations like APEC and EAS  by security coalitions like The QUAD  and AUKUS.

In the first two decades of 21st Century, the United States as the Global Superpower with high stakes in Indo Pacific security and stability vainly hoped that Communist China would adapt itself to emerge as a benign stakeholder in Indo Pacific security and stability.

But the Communist Rulers in Beijing emboldened by United States reluctance to checkmate Communist China's exponential military buildup and misperceived notions that the 'China Card' was still operative in Beijing's favor embarked on military confrontations from Japan, Taiwan, South China Sea to Eastern Ladakh.

The United States belatedly realized that Communist China had no inclinations to contribute to Indo Pacific security except on Communist China's terms. Beijing with its military aggression in South China Sea signaled to United States that Communist China was not only intent on challenging United States predominance in the Western Pacific but also had intentions to contend with the United States to emerge as the 'Second Pole' in global power-play.

In quick succession, the United States reinforced the US-India Global Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, reinforced its Alliance linkages with South Korea and Japan and revived The QUAD, extricated itself from Afghanistan and established AUKUS--bringing into existence a Trilateral of three nuclear powered submarines nations.

In tandem, other security linkages that stand reinforced are the Japan-India Strategic Partnership, India-Australia Strategic Partnership, United States outreach to Vietnam and Japan engaged in military capacity buildup of the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Significantly, as asserted by me in an analysis in Eurasia Review, was the prospects of ASEAN Redundancy spurred by Indo Pacific security and geopolitical churning. ASEAN an economic grouping has shirked from condemnation of Communist China even when Beijing forcibly annexed Island Territories in South China Sea of Vietnam and Philippines--both ASEAN Nations.

Some may like to argue that this is debatable but it is my firm belief that Indo Pacific with increasing military belligerence of Communist China would not offer geopolitical space for 'Fence Sitters' or proponents of 'Strategic Non-Alignment'.

Concluding, it needs to be reminded that history is witness to the fact that whenever Revisionist Powers like Communist China emerge on the global stage the natural and logical culmination is the emergence of 'Security Coalitions'  which with increased military escalation graduate to 'Military Alliances'.

INDO PACIFIC ASIA 2021 NOTICEABLY HEAVILY POLARIZED AGAINST COMMUNIST CHINA

 Communist China which till a couple of years back was being perceived as a Superpower emerging in contention with the United States, has due to its mistakenly self-perceived empowerment down-slided in 2021 virtually to the designation of  Indo Pacific's notorious 'Regional Destabiliser'.

Indo Pacific in 2021 stands highly polarized against Communist China indulging in unprovoked aggression on its peripheries, both on land-borders and on maritime expanses of Indo Pacific.

Communist China has been in a high state of military confrontation and military clashes with India on the Himalayan Heights that border China Occupied Tibet, The intense China-India military confrontation can be gauged from over 50,000 Indian Army Armored Formations and Mechanized Forces confronting Communist China's military buildup.

Japan, the other Major Asian Power is being constantly politically and militarily coerced Communist China intruding into Senkaku Islands maritime space and Chinese submarines prowling around in Sea of Japan and Japan's Inland Sea.

South Korea which till lately was in an appeasement mode towards Beijing has now changed gears recognizing that the security environment of the Korean Peninsula  stands disturbed with Communist China itching for a military showdown with the United States in the South China Sea.

In end-2021, Taiwan faces the grim prospects of  Communist China undertaking a military invasion to annex Taiwan to Communist China rule mindless of  consequences of a military showdown with United States & Allies.

The volatility in South China Sea is well publicized and recorded of Communist China declaring its sovereignty over the entire maritime expanse. Vietnam and the Philippines have been victims of Communist Chinese military aggression.

ASEAN Nations like Indonesia and Malaysia, earlier as 'fence-sitters' on Chinese aggression have lately tasted Communist Chinese aggressive intrusions into their territorial waters.

Globally, Communist China seems set on challenging the United States & The West not only in Indo Pacific more pointedly, but also distantly in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Geopolitical forces at play and sound strategic logic seems to have deserted Communist China's much touted strategic vision. It seems that heady with its exponential military power buildup of last two decades when United Sates was distracted by Iraq and Afghanistan, Beijing's 21st Century Emperor has reckoned that he can push China's military adventurism envelope further with an unsure United States still deciding the level of S checkmating of China.

Concluding, it needs to be pointed out that Communist China's gamble against United States and confrontations with India, Japan and Australia is already reaping an early harvest in form of QUAD & AUKUS.

The intensified trend of anti--Communist China security groupings above accompanied by other Indo Pacific Nations already in a state of marked polarization against Communist China as a result of China-generated multiple flash-points  bodes ill for Indo Pacific security and stability.