SOUTH CHINA SEA HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE UNITED STATE-CHINA ARMED CONFLICT

The South China Sea  is currently hearing incessantly the sounds of 'Drums of War' as China instead of submitting to international diplomatic norms of conflict-resolution is indulging in extreme military  provocations of ballistic missiles firings in this China Occupied Maritime Expanse to shoo  away two US Navy Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups presence in the region.

United States naval presence in the South China Sea along with Navies of US-allied Nations is aimed at ensuring the freedom of movement ad navigation of international shipping against Chinese Navy interference and coercion.

Today the scenario that is emerging in the South China Sea which connects the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean is one of 'Clash of Wills' between the United States and a China not only reluctant but also defiant to let go of its illegal hold over the South China Sea.

'Clash of Wills' between the United States as the sole Superpower in the world and the predominant Power in the Indo Pacific Region and China as the 'Revisionist Power' seeking political and military exit of the United States from the Region inherently carries within it the seeds of armed conflict.

The US-China 'Clash of Wills' witnesses' the ranging of United States asymmetrical military might which has ensured Indo Pacific security and stability for over seven decades with the heady newly-created exponential growing Chinese Military Power impelled by revisionist impulses.

China seems to be oblivious of United States vast asymmetrical superiority in geopolitical and military might of the United States over China. Mere possession by China of a vast, but inferior, nuclear weapons arsenal and missiles arsenal does not endow China with  a fighting chance to prevail militarily over the United Stes or deter it from enforcing the global writ on the illegality of China's untenable hold over the South Chia Sea.

China seems to be in a reckless downslide of military adventurism and expansionism on all its peripheries. China today especially after its criminal callousness in relation to global spared of China Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic has been pushed into even greater diplomatic and economic isolation.

The above combined with ethnic genocidal suppression in Xingjian and Tibet, suppression in Hong Kong and Taiwan as a 'critical 'Core Point' heading for explosion is likely to push China into further military adventurism to divert growing domestic political dissent against Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China is therefore likely to whip up emotive Han Nationalism domestic sentiments by military adventurism against Taiwan and in South China Sea. 

Both on Taiwan and in the South China Sea  Chinese military adventurism will run headlong against United States recently awakened political will and resolve  that China needs now to be checkmated before it assumes more threatening contours against the United States national interests and the security of United States Allies and Strategic Partners in the Indo Pacific.

With such a contextual backdrop as outline above, it can be asserted that China is heading towards an inevitable military conflict with the United States in the South China Sea and over Taiwan too.

The South China Sea in the coming months could most likely witness increasing China-United States clashes ranging from incidents at sea to even  United States major military operations against some of China's illegally constructed "Artificial Islands' with military fortifications to establish 'Full Spectrum' military dominance over the South China Sea.

In this ensuing likely 'Clash of Wills' between China and the United States in the South China Sea, irrespective of US Presidential Elections November 2020 outcome, no second guesses are required as to who will prevail.

 

 

INDIA'S ACT EAST POLICY AND THE "QUAD"

India graduated from its 'Look East' policy enunciated in 1990s by India's game-changer Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao to an active 'Act East' policy since 2014 under current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India's 'Look East' policy was an economic imperative which PM Narasimha Rao synchronised with his authorship of India's economic liberalisation which put India on the track of fast unfettered economic growth.

Reflected in my past writings was the reality that while India's 'Look East' policy was an economic imperative, India's 'Act East' policy under PM Narendra Modi was a "strategic imperative" as India widened its strategic horizons under BJP's second Prime Minister. 

India under its 'Act East' policy undertook a well-calibrated strategy of imitating strategic partnerships with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam which were central to security of East Asia or the Western Pacific as an insurance against China's not so benign military rise.

This was in tandem with the growing evolution of the US-India Strategic Partnership which emerged at the turn of the Millennium but matured to substantive proportions only by the second decade of he 21st Century.

The 'QUAD' Concept earlier enunciated by President Brush in the first decade of the 21st Century did not really take-off with United States strategic distractions in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the lingering ambiguities of US policies where 'China Hedging' still persisted.

India therefore quite naturally was also hedging on the QUAD Concept due to its own China Hedging wavering compulsions.

The QUAD Concept was actively revived by the US Trump Administration which soon realised the futility of United States China-policy of giving-in to China on vital issues like the South China Sea.

Political signalling by President Trump of United States hardening of stances on China encouraged the Indian policy establishment to revise its perspectives on the crucial importance of the QUAD Grouping of United States, Japan, India and Australia as an existential counterweight to China's increasing 'Expansionist Impulses'.

India was therefore taking a logical yet graduated step from 'Look East' policy to 'Act East' policy and now as an active participant in the 'QUAD Grouping' of Nations with strategic convergences on the burgeoning China Threat to Indo Pacific Security.

Contextually therefore India in 2020 has not only further reinforced its security relationships with the United States and Japan but this year extended its Strategic Partnership with Australia to include MOUs on security cooperation and more notably 'Logistics Sharing & Access' to each others logistics facilities.

With the above steps including Australia's participation in future EX-MALABAR naval exercises India apparently has become far more integrated in the QUAD Grouping whose overall aim is to jointly ensure the freedom of global commons like the South China Sea which has  seen Chinese aggressive expansionism and checkmating China's growing intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

In terms of perspectives, it needs to be observed that the QUAD Grouping as a strong potent Naval Grouping is in India's long rang strategic interests and security which should increasingly find more acceptance within India amongst all right thinking Indians who value India's 'Sovereignty' and 'National Honour as India grapples with China's increasing 'Expansionism' especially in relation to Idia's national interests.