RUSSIA-CHINA AXIS 2025: STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT UNDERWAY?

The Russia-China Axis of the two Communist Giants did not emerge from any strong Communist ideological bonds but from a single point strategic convergence of checkmating United States global predominance with this strategic convergence intensity varying from China's side depending on state of US-China relations.

Strategic denouement between Russia and China seems to be underway, chiefly, in the wake of Russia's lack of military success in its war on Ukraine and China not rising up to the occasion to reinforce Russia's war efforts.

China seems to have perceptively failed in supporting Russia in the much publicized "No Limits" strategic partnership as other than geopolitical support, China seems to have not provided Russia with any substantial lethal military aid that could have turned the tide in Russia's complete military success. 

China could have aided Russia with tanks, artillery equipment and drones from China's massive inventories.

Russia had to turn to North Koea and Iran for lethal war supplies to add punch to its offensive strikes in   Ukraine.hina

Norh Korea's military aid to Russian War in Ukraine was both in terms of fire-power ammunition supplies and more notably sending a much-needed contingent of 10,000 North Korean troops to aid Russian war effort. Russia is woefully short of military manpower.

China expectedly as a 'No Limits' strategic partner of Russia should have aided Russia with its military manpower. China did not do so. North Korea did so.

Iran has provided Russia with hundreds of hard-hitting military drones which have provided Russia with coercive devastation power. Why was China reluctant to do so?

China sustained Russia's Ukraine War by buying Russian oil supplies at dirt cheap rates but that too is waning as reports indicate that a dozen Russian 'Shadow Oil Tankers' anchored off the Chinese Coast are not being allowed to off-load oil supplies at Chines ports.

China has 'shied-off 'fearful of additional US sanctions which prohibit countries buying oil from Russia to drawback Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

China has been fearful in terms of global reactions to any unreserved Chinese military support to Russia. Indicators at the beginning of 2025 point towards China's 'rethink' on its 'No Limits' military aid to Russia.

The other major reason for China's reluctance for limitless military aid to Russia can be analyzed as China's decision not to deplete its military inventories by preserving them for a possible 'War with Unite States' over Taiwan.

In Conclusion, it can be analytically asserted that besides many other pinpricks in Russia-China strategic relations, China's lack of lethal military aid to Russia in its Ukraine War may mark the 'tipping point' for a strategic denouement in the Russia-China Axis with profound impact on global geopolitics.

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PHILIPPINES SQUARELY IN UNITED STATES STRATEGIC FOLD 2025: OUTGOING US PRESIDENT BIDEN'S SIGNIFICANT FOREIGN POLIC ACHIEVEMENT

United States most significant foreign policy achievement under outgoing US President Biden was to induce the Philippines to squarely re-pivot to the American strategic fold after years of cavorting with Communist Chinese rulers in Beijing under previous Filipino President Duterte.

The Philippines hosted two major US military bases in the Philippines earlier --Subic Bay Naval Base and Clarkes Air Force Base. United States was asked to remove its Military Bases in 1991 when the Philippines Senate voted against US military bases.

Thereafter, limited US-Philippines security ties were kept in existence under the 'Visiting Forces Agreements' in various forms.                

This resulted in a serious military void in the US-crafted security architecture in Western Pacific as these two US Bases were critical 'springboard points' for United States to deter Communist China from invasion of Taiwan and also Forward Military Bases for any US military intervention against Mainland China.

Philippines losses were heavy in terms of domestic economy which thrived on a large US Forces presence in the country.

Geopolitically, the Philippines did not gain anything by its period of flirtation with Communist China, a fact which previous President Duterte realized belatedly at the end of his term.

In 2025, the US Military Bases picture has changed with United States under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr having granted permission to United States not only to return in force to erstwhile five US Military Bases but to establish two additional US Military Bases in the North.

In tandem, joint US-Philippines Military Exercises have intensified to endure more military inter-operability between the two countries.

Notably, Japan, India and Australia as QUAD Security Initiative members are supplementing the US-led military capacity building of the Philippines to withstand Communist China's political and military coercion over China's festering dispute over the Scarborough Shoals in the South China Sea.

India significantly, has sold Three Batteries of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles which add greatly to Philippines deterrent power against Communist China aggression. Discussions are reported to be underway for additional BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles and other Indian military equipment. Security ties are intensifying.

Japan is intimately involved in enhancing the security profile of the Philippines both in cooperation with the United States and also on its own. Japan- Philippines "Reciprocal Access Agreement" permits both nations to use each other's military bases thereby integrating security mechanisms of bath nations.

Japan too is providing military equipment to the Philippines in addition to various training programs. 

 Philippines also has an "Enhanced Defence Cooperation Program" with Australia which focuses on maritime security and counterterrorism.

While Japan and Australia have long-standing security ties with the Philippines under the aegis of the US security template to counter China, the entry of India as a 'security provider' to Philippines is a recent envelopment and intensifying.

India stands out in terms of providing 300 km range BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles to the Philippines in a glaring & military geopolitical signaling to China.

Highlighting needs to be done that in 2025 what strikes analytically is that besides the bilateral security arrangements with the Philippines, all Four Nations of QUAD are engaged in enhancing the military capacity-building of the Philippines against Chinese aggression.

Concluding, it needs to be emphasized that the strategic location of the Philippines astride the vital sea-lanes of communication traversing the South China Sea over which China claims 'dubious sovereignty' are critical for Indo Pacific security. 

Philippines security can be guaranteed not by Communist China intent on military adventurism in the region, but, by United States and the QUAD Nations--a fact now registered by the Philippines. 

 

UNITED STATES AND INDO PACIFIC SECURITY GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES 2025

United States is likely to face serious geopolitical challenges as 2025 dawns, bringing into office President Donald Trump for a second time after a lapse of four years, during which global and Indo Pacific strategic configurations stand drastically changed, because of the emergence of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Quartet, in the wake of Russian Invasion of Ukraine, which I would like to term as the "CRIN Quartet".

China, Russia and North Korea are located in Western Pacific while Iran lies at the margins of the United States Indo Pacific security template. All four of these are Nuclear Powers with Ballistic Missiles arsenals. All of these four Nuclear Powers are in conflictual/adversarial confrontation with the United States.

In Trump 1:0 Administration, two strands seem to have been adopted by President Trump. Normalization of relations with Russia and North Korea and secondly, putting China under strategic pressures via Trade Wars with simultaneous reinforcement of QUAD as an effective deterrent against Chinese military adventurism.

CRIN Quartet was non-existent during President Trump's first term. It was only the Russia-China Axis that was operative.

Normalization between United States & Russia and United States & North Korea did not make any headway, despite President Trump's concerted drive. 

United States relations with China hardened under President Trump during his previous term. as a result of Trade Wars initiated by him.

Since then, and on eve of President-elect Trump's 2025 inauguration of his second Presidency, significant geopolitical changes have taken place posing grave challenges not only to Indo Pacific security but also with Indo Pacific US-hostile Powers--- China and North Korea, getting actively involved in European conflicts by their military and troops manpower support to Russia.

This new linkage of IndoPacific security to European security will now be a strategic challenge for President Trump.

President Trump ca ill-ignore US imperatives of Indo Pacific security nor can European security be allowed to be diluted by any US compromises under President Trump with Russia.

Iran too has got involved in European conflicts by providing sizeable supplies of "Drones' for Russia's stalled military operations in Ukraine. Iran's collaboration of Western Pacific Powers hostile to United States is an additional challenge.

The above two new complex geopolitical challenges to United States with deep strategic implications cannot be met by President Trump with 'linear solutions'.

United States China-policy stances, under outgoing President Biden, unexpectedly and unprecedently, "HARDENED" against China, including a first-ever United States policy assertion dismissing China's 'sovereignty' over China Occupied Tibet.

United States under outgoing President Biden stood more strongly behind Taiwan against China and the military buildup of the Philippines, including establishment of two additional US military bases, which could be used for against China.

Contextually, therefore, incoming US President Trump on January 20, 2025, has little strategic bandwidth to overturn the existing geopolitical and security templates of 'Hard Policies ' on China put into place during 2020-24.

Then, China only, was the Prime Threat to United States and Indo Pacific security. In 2025, President Trump in his second term, President Trump has now to contend with the crystallization of the "CRIN Quartet", comprising China, Russia, Iran and North Korea----all Nuclear Powers.

If Iran and North Korea can get militarily involved in Europe, aiding Russia in its military operations against US-aided Ukraine, what is the guarantee that in any US-China War in Indo Pacific, Iran and North Korea would not actively supplement Chinese war-efforts against United States?

Therein lies President Trump's most significant geopolitical and military challenge as he enters office in January 2025.

 Ending Ukraine War by President Trump, as per his election promise, by pressurizing Ukraine to submit to President Putin's conditions, would not lessen security challenges to Indo Pacific security with entry of CRIN Factor in the strategic calculus against the United States, dominated by China.

Russian President Putin in a "pay-back" gesture to China, would be obligated to support China's invasion of Taiwan plans underway. Russia would then be more obligated to China than the United States.

During his second term, President Trump would have to face the likely contingency of China's long -stalled military invasion of Taiwan. Even as per US-estimates China has been assessed to invade Taiwan by 2027.

United States under President Trump 2:0 would have no options but to pursue the 'Hard Line' China-policy policy formulations in existence in 2024. 

President Trump's declared policy of 'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) forecloses United States options to go soft on China, as United States submitting meekly to Chinese invasion of Taiwan would mark the "US-Eit" from Western Pacific.

Concluding, the major observation that needs to be made is that ever since 1949 when Communist China emerged with belligerent overtones, United States China-policies of 'Engagement', Congagement', 'Competitor', 'Delinking' and 'Derisking' have failed to motivate China to emerge as a 'Responsible Stakeholder' in regional and global security.

In 2025, perspectives suggest that the United States not only has to deal with China as   the Prime Threat to United States security and Indo Pacific security but also an enlarged and intensified hostile CRIN Quartet.

 

   

 

RUSSIA PERCEPTIONALLY A 'DECLINING POWER' IN END-2024; GLOBAL STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

Russia in end-2024 as a 'Contending Power' of the United States is in a critical 'Power Decline' arising from debilitating geopolitical, military and economic consequences ensuing from its ill-fated and unprovoked military Ukraine Invasion in 2022, coupled with loss of Syria from Russian orbit and Israel's neutering Iranian Proxies, Hamas & Hezbollah. 

Regardless of an outright victory over Ukraine or of any peace settlement brokered by incoming US President Trump, Russia would sill continue be a 'Declining Power' as in either eventuality Russia's 'Power Losses' would be staggering.

Russia as a 'Declining Power' raises severe global and regional strategic implications in an already unpredictable and uncertain global strategic landscape.

Globally, at the apex level, China would love to and daresay, been striving to replace Russia as the main 'Contending Power' of the United States, ever since US President Obama in his tenure floated the dubious concept of "Global Dyad" of United States and China to manage global security.

China's ambitions in this direction in 2024 run into two serious obstacles in terms of fructifying. President Obama had to face serious opposition globally to his expounded concept.  Global geopolitics since then have taken a 360degree turn.

The first, Russia even as a 'Declining Power' and despite its strategic nexus of Russia-China Axis may not cede the prized slot to China. Russian President Putin's declared objective of Russia as an 'independent power center' would still be operative.

Russian geopolitics may take somersaults to prevent Russia being reduced to a China strategic satellite. 

Secondly, China in 2024, is in adversarial confrontation with the United States. China in the American strategic calculus is no longer an asset. This perspective may get further negative for China if US President-Elect Trump implements his Putin-friendly policies, now with an overwhelming political majority, coupled with intensified US-China Trade Wars and military confrontation in Western Pacific.

Coming to United States, perceptionally, United States under President Trump may see more merit in a US-Russia Global Dyad as opposed to Obama's US-China Dyad for global security management.

In terms of implications for 'Second Tier' Powers like Europe and India, the implications would be more diverse.

In 2024, Europe is in grip of severe military threat perceptions of 'Russian Westward Creep' following Ukraine Invasion and Russian President Putin's threatening assertions to that effect peeved by European Nations military aid to Ukraine.

European Nations can therefore be expected to wish for Russia as a 'Declining Power'.

India as an Emerged Power with considerable military & economic strengths in 2024 is now a 'Consequential Player' in global security.

 Russia's 'Power Decline' has two consequential implications for India. Firstly, strictly in the Russia-India context and secondly in the US-Russia-India context.

Even despite the Former USSR disintegration, India perceived Russia having some considerable countervailing influence on China in terms of its adversarial stances against India. That could wither considerably with Russia's 'Power Decline'.

In the second context, many variables would come into play dependent on how US-Russia relations unfold in next four years.

Likely 'reset' of United States policies favoring Russia to preempt or slow-down its 'Declining Trajectory' would be a gain for India. India with its established good relations with Russia supplemented by a substantive United States-India Strategic Partnership would be a strong existentialist counterweight to a belligerent China.

Should United States under President Trump elects to not reset its Russia policies, and Russia even on its own volition does not geopolitically arrest its power decline, then Russian dependency on China gets intensified, resulting in adverse scenarios for India.

Russia's 'Declining Power' trajectory has implications for India's security interests in the strategic Middle East and Indo Pacific Regions too. The existing Indian foreign policy templates in these vital regions would need to be recalibrated to manage China filling-in the Russian void.

Concluding, the striking fact that so emerges from the above analysis is that both the United States and India, for their respective security interests, have a vested interest in arresting Russia's 'Declining Power' so as to preempt emergence of a militant China to emerge as the sole 'Contending Power' of the United States, reigning in a highly polarized bipolar world.

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC GRIP IN MIDDLE EAST UNRAVELS IN END-2024 AND ITS IMPICATIONS

 Symptomatic of Midde East geopolitical churning, Russia's strategic grip in the Middle East in end-2024 has visibly unraveled with decades-old Russia-Iran propped Syrian President Bashar al Assad's lightening overthrow last week, and Israel's military decapitation of Russian-backed Iranian Proxy Militias, namely Hamas and Hezbollah.

Symptomatic of Middle East's rapidly changing geopolitical equations was that Turkey, an erstwhile strong supporter of Russia, spearheaded the blitzkrieg HTS Militias drive from Aleppo to Damascus to bring about a regime-change in Damascus.

Turkey now in direct cross-purposes with Russia has emerged as the kingmaker in Syria.

Syria was a critical component of Russian President Putin's strategy of establishing a powerful presence in Middle East geopolitical power-play against United States predominant sway over the Middle East.

Syria under President Bashar Assad, (since deposed and given political asylum in Russia) hosted a Russian Navy Base at Tartus and a Russian Air Force Base near Latakia. Both these bases in Syria enabled Russian strategic leverages not only in Middle East but also East Mediterranean Region.

Latest satellite imagery suggests that Russia is drawing back its Syrian military presence but has yet not abandoned ts military bases.

Syria also played a significant role in Russia's Middle East strategy in the Iranian context. Needless to recall that Iran has evolved as a crucial 'Centerpiece' in Russia's Middle East geopolitical powerplay.

Syria was the main conduit for funneling Iranian and Russian arms and military wherewithal to Hamas and Hezbollah constantly waging war against Israel.

Coinciding with Syrian President's sudden fall, Isreal launched military incursions into Syria against Syrian military bases funneling aid to Hanas and Hezbollah.

Contextually, in end-2024, Russia's strategic blueprint for a grip on Middle East powerplay stands unraveled.

Russia not abandoning its two major military bases in Syria, even after overthrow of President Assad's downfall, creates unpredictable implications. It indicates that Russia will attempt to temporize with HTS rebels to negotiate retention of its Syrian bases.

On the other hand, reports indicate that the HTS regime in Damascus is apprehending that Iran will initiate "Revenge Attacks" on Syria to re-establish its "Conduits" for aid to Hamas and Hezbollah.

Russia could be in a Catch-22 situation whether in above context to aid Iran or forget retention of its Syrian military bases.

Isreal, undoubtedly, can be expected to thwart any Iranian military attempts to re-establish its 'aid-corridors' to Hamas and Hezbollah, through Syria,

United States can be expected to support Isreal tacitly on the above count and also contrive that any new stable Syrian regime that emerges is US-friendly and demands Russian abandonment of its Syrian military bases.

In Conclusion, events are moving on the above lines, though, the "Geopolitical Fog" could trigger unintended consequences. Despite this, what is certain that Russia's grip in Middle East has unraveled and would take years to be re-implanted again, especially in Levant.