UNITED STATES PRESIDENT TRUMP PLAYING THE "PAKISTAN CARD" AGAINST INDIA IN 2025 FOREDOOMED TO FAILURE

US President Donald Trump perceptible playing the "Pakistan Card" against India in mid-2025 in complete reversal of Trump 1:0 policies (2016-20) are foredoomed to failure simply .because India today carries more geopolitical weightage globally and is not a strategic pushover like Pakistan.

Overlooked by President Trump and his policy establishment is that in the prevailing global geopolitical churning, it is the United States that critically needs India as a Strategic Partner and not India needing the United States.

India today with its geopolitical and economic weight can tilt the scales of the global Balance of Power by its strategic preferences

President Trump's reckless moves, therefore, to browbeat India to yield to US-demanded trade concessions risks the US-India Strategic Partnership laboriously crafted over last 25 years.

 President Trump's transactional approaches could spell the end of QUAD Security Initiative as besides India as the pivotal member, the other two nations, Japan and Australia are equally aggrieved by President Trump's impulsive actions.''

Regrettably, in his penchant for seeking publicity headlines, perceptionally, President Trump has overridden the saner vices in Washington not to antagonize India.

Perceptibly, there is an element of personal pique against Indian PM Modi for not conceding to President Trump's self-asserted claims that it was he who pressurized India and Pakistan during mid-2025 for a ceasefire after India's decisive cripplng of Pakistan's offensive capabilities. 

President Trump's ego and his Nobel Peace Prize aspirations stood bruised and hence his ordering 50% tariffs on Indian exports to USA with the fig leaf that it was intended to restrict India's purchase of Russian oil.

Duplicitous approach of President Trump is starkly evident as China buys more Russian oil than India does. But President Trump overlooking this fact has not penalized China but has extended the tariffs deadline imposition by another 90 days.

Coming to Pakistan, President Trump has noticeably displayed a "Pakistan-tilt" in his statements and deeds. This trend stands intensified after India refusing to concede that there was ' NO Third Party Mediation' for ceasefire and that it was Pakistan Army DGMO who initiated ceasefire request to Indian Army DGMO on the hotline. 

Rubbing into India's strategic sensitivities, President Trump  hosted a lunch for Pakistan Army Chie Asif Munir which was a departure from established protocol as this honor is reserved for Heads of State.

Rubbing India further, United  under President  Trump hosted a second visit by Pakistan Army Chief and a flurry of visits by Pakistan's military hierarchy. Increased military aid to Pakistan is in evidence.

The last time a US President displayed similar "Pakistan Tilt" policies arising out of personal pique was a fellow Republican President Nixon goaded by his NSA Heny Kissinger in 1971. What was the result? Nixon's outright military threats to India and ordering US aircraft carrier group led by USS ENTERPRISE could not subdue India.

Nixon's antagonistic policies against India and follow-up sanctions were disastrous for the United States national interests. Pakistan stood partitioned, Bangladesh emerged as an independent nation and United States lost out strategically on India till the turn of the Milennium.

Concluding, President Trump's "Tariff  Terrorism" against India and his pronounced 'Pakistan Tilt" are foredoomed to failure. India in the past when it was not a geopolitical heavyweight weathered many American economic sanctions and American "Pakistan Tilts".

In 2025, when India has emerged as a geopolitical and economic heavyweight in the global power-calculus, India cannot be expected to yield to US President Trump's piqued tantrums. India today demands respect on the strength of its power-credentials and will not take President Trump's bullying. 

If the United States does not carry out immediate course-corrections, it stands to lose India as a pivotal Strategic Partner, mark the end of US-India Stategic Partnership, and lead to unravelling of the QUAD, and also the emergence of BRICS solidly and potently working for "De-Dollarization".

RUSSIA-INDIA-CHINA TRILATERAL REVIVAL AS ADVOCATED BY RUSSIA & CHINA GEOPOLITICALLY AND STRATEGICALLY INADVISABLE FOR INDIA 2025

Russia and China whenever geopolitically cornered globally have displayed the propensity to actively advocate for revival of the Russia-India-China Trilateral as an optical geopolitical leverage against United States and the West.

In recent weeks, this has surfaced once again, with now China voicing that India should agree to Russian advocacy of the revival of the Russia-India-China Trilateral. This advocacy was last most active in the latter half of the 2000s when India was signing the US-India Civil Nuclear Deal and the US-India Strategic Partnership was becoming substantive.

In 2025, India has emerged in her own right as a Major Power in the global strategic calculus. India has amply exhibited its national power attributes and heading India towards 'Real Strategic Autonomy'. Incapacitating Pakistan's offensive capabilities with 'Deep Strikes' in Pakistan's Heartland during OP SINDOOR despite Pakistan's nuclear blackmail and China's overt support evidently support this assertion.

So, the question that comes to the fore is as to how India geopolitically and strategically benefits if it opts for revival of the Russia-India-China-Trilateral?

In my assessment, no geopolitical or strategic gains accrue to India in 2025 or thereafter by once again participating actively in a "Revived" Russia-India-China Trilateral.

Russia is bogged down in 2025 in a strategic quagmire of its own creation in the Ukraine War. China in my assessment i2025 is "besieged" geopolitically and increasingly internally with serious domestic upheaval in the offing.

More significantly, Russia and China figure "high" in the 'Threat Perceptions' of the United States, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Australia with which India has forged Strategic Partnerships.

In fact, in 2025, the global scene today presents two Major Powers Groups confronting each other, directly or by proxy, namely, United States & its Allies versus the Russia-China Axis.  

India should therefore in 2025, or even thereafter not be ensnared into a geopolitical swamp from which it would be difficult to wriggle out without significant geopolitical losses if it once again becomes active in Russia-India-China Trilateral.

Even in the heyday when India found the Russia-India-China Trilateral geopolitically an attractive proposition in past Indian political dispensations, decades ago, my writings then argued too that it was not in India's national interests to be part of such a Trilateral.

The Russia-India-China Trilateral, geometrically too, was never, and even now, a sound proposition for India.

Taking the Trilateral as a Geometrical Tringle, Russia sits at the top of the Triangle with India and China forming the two ends of the base of the Triangle. With India and China figuring as 'implacable enemies', the base of this Triangle inherently crumbles under its own contradictory adversarial weight. 

In the last two decades, can India forget the Chinese and Russian (under Chinese pressures) anti-Indian geopolitical gimmicks in South Asia against India? 

A Russia-China-Pakistan compact was very much visible on Afghanistan where both Russia and China sidelined India from dialogues on Afghanistan in Moscow forgetting that India had sizeable geopolitical stakes there.

A petulant Russia then also went on to supply military hardware to Pakistan to strategically discomfit India. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's statements then were certainly not India-friendly. President Putin's Special Advisor Kabulov was decidedly anti-Indian.

China's Compulsive Obsessive Disorder of "Downsizing India" geopolitically, militarily and now adding 'Economic Warfare" stands well documented in my past and recent writings. 

China's persistent record of supporting Pakistan's State-sponsored terrorism against India both by vetoing UN Resolutions censuring Pakistan or Pakistan Army affiliated Jihadi Groups reinforces China's postures as an 'Inveterate & Implacable Enemy of India'.

Does India need or seem to be a part of any 'Coalition' with Russia and China with their demonstrated record not only perceived as 'Disruptive Powers' globally, but also with convergent Russia-Chia Axis strategic aims at cross-purposes with India's National Interests?

Concluding, it needs to be reiterated that surely PM Narendra Modi and the Indian foreign policy establishment would be seized with the above factors and would resist any pressures to actively participate in a 'revived' Russia-India -China Trilateral.

Political 'tactical expediency' in short-term to soft-pedal this issue for access to Russian cheap oil and India securing its supply chains against China's 'Economic Warfare' disruptions are well -understandable.

CHINA'S RELENTLESS STRATEGIC DOWNSIZING OF INDIA NOW ADDS AN "ECONOMIC WARFARE" DIMENSION TO ITS ANTI-INDIA ARMORY: IMPLICATIONS

China having failed in its strategies to strategically downsize India for decades by devious geopolitical means and military coercion on India's borders with China Occupied Tibet has now desperately embarked on "Economic Warfare" to impede India's 'Power Rise'.

In the years since 2014, with the advent of PM Modi-led BJP Government, India has acquired significant geopolitical weightage. Adding to this is India's stellar 'War Preparedness' achieved since 2014, adding muscle to India's diplomacy and providing PM Modi the strength and will to counter the China-Pakistan Axis.

China's fixated obsession to impede India's rise as a Major Power on the global stage now finds expression in launching an all- out "Economic Warfare encompassing a wide domain of India's economic and trade activities.

The 'Trigger' for China's spurt in 'Economic Warfare" strategies against India, both direct and indirect, arises from two major economic factors. These are (1) India's fast-track economic progress towards emerging as global 'Third Largest Economy", and (2) India's emerging profile as a Global Manufacturing Hub' displacing China. 

China's global standings, with pretentions of being a Superpower, are severely dented with India's 'Ascendant Trajectory' on the global stage, taking the power sheen off China.

China's "Economic Warfare" against India has sharpened lately and encompasses (1) Recall of Chinese engineers involved in US/foreign companies projects in India (2) Stringent export restrictions selectively applied to Indian deals (3) Targeting India's needs for special fertilizers for agriculture (4) Restrictions on Indian imports from China of Rare Earths and magnets used in India's automobiles sector and space programs.

The above is only a brief list, and more selective restrictions against India are in the pipeline. China has reacted feverishly against items/entities which are driving Foreign Investors ay from China and relocate to India after initial lure of Vietnam.

The implications for India would be a temporary slowdown in some fields but not a total disruption. India seems to have prepared for this eventuality. Indian industry is already looking for alternative suppliers and the Modi Government is fast-tracking to fill the voids with self-reliant technologies/ supplies.

India also needs to adopt matching retaliatory "Economic Warfare" strategies against China with effect. These should include (1) No Chinese FDI in India and certainly not in electronics sector (2) Blanket ban on all Indian imports from China Imports from China be made selectively for short term (3) No purchase of indigenous defence items which have Chinese components (4) Service Sector not to be open for China and Chinese. No Chinese flights to India (5) Government should prohibit Indian tourists visiting China (6) Plug loopholes of Chinese good entering India through third countries or smuggling along land-borders with Nepal and Bangladesh.

Lastly, in tandem, India's millions-strong Netizens Army should organize a persistent and vocal "BOYCOTT CHINESE GOODS" by all Indians as patriotic duty.

INDIA'S 2025 GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVES TO PAUSE US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP AND QUAD SECURITY INITIATIVE

India's foreign policy cannot operate in frozen molds of past geopolitical constructs but be reset to keep pace with unfolding geopolitics. United States Trump 2.0 Administration transactional pivot to Pakistan in complete disregard of India's strategic sensitivities dictate geopolitical impetrative to press the "Pause Button" on US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD Security Initiative.

On Pakistan, US President Trump2.0 has given enough indicators in last five months of spinning past US strategic policies on its head. President Trump 2.0 "Sanctified Pakistan's State Sponsored Terrorism" against India and "Beatified Pakistan Army Chief as Patron Saint of Washington" during a White House lunch hosted for General Munir.

 Elected leaders of Pakistan were missing from the White House Lunch. Is President Trump 2.0 vying for a "Regime Change" in Pakistan?

On China, too, President Trump 2.0 has exhibited propensity to temporize with China's strategic inclinations in the pursuit of 'trade deals'.

On both counts stated above, President Trump2.0 has cavorted with India's implacable enemies which carry geopolitical and strategic costs for India.

It needs to be recalled that the underpinnings of the US-India Strategic Partnership spanning four US Presidents of different political dispositions was the joint convergence between the two Nations on the 'China Threat'.

Similarly, it was President Trump 1.0 who actively resurrected the dormant QUAD after eight years of dormancy.

Implicit for India in both Secuity Relationships was the hovering factor of the 'Pakistan Threat' being automatically taken care of by US-India convergences on the 'China Threat'.

In 2025, nothing has changed on the 'China Threat' persisting in threat perceptions of both United States and India. On the contrary, the 'China Threat' has assumed more alarming proportions.

President Trump 2.0 political strategies on China and Pakistan, going by his public utterances, betray that when the chips would be down, the United States Trump 2.0 Administration would give India a 'transactional pass'.

The hallmark of President Trump 2.0 is geopolitical signaling with strategic ambiguities and this applies to his current approaches to India.

The crucial question in mid-2025 is therefore as to whether to honor Indian commitments to past US Presidents on the US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD, no longer perceptionaly validated by President Trump 2.0 ongoing policy stances on Pakistan and China?

'It takes two to do a tango' is a well-known precept. When President Trump 2.0 wants to "Tango" with Pakistan and China, going by his political signaling, India should not foreclose its geopolitical options of being "frozen" in past commitments no longer appealing to President Trump 2.0

Concluding, India would be geopolitically and strategically wise in tapping the" Pause Button" on both the US-India Strategic Partnership and the QUAD.

US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP2.0: INDIAN STRATEGIC DENOUEMENT VISIBLY SETTING-IN 2025

US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership laboriously crafted over 25 years, with bipartisan support both in United States and India is visibly under strain in mid-2025, resulting from President Trump's insensitivity to Indian strategic sentiments, by pivoting back transactionally towards Pakistan, in middle of Indian OP SINDOOR overwhelming military success in decapitation of Pakistan. 

Perceptionally, India at large, its strategic community and its highly nationalistic Middle Class, are deeply incensed by President Trump's hyperbolic assertions on Pakistan, in wake of India's deep airstrikes against Pakistan's critical airbases including those noted as hosting Pakistan's nuclear weapons. 

Indian Government responses maintained dignified diplomatic silence letting TV visuals and media responses to project realities. However, sensing India's public opinion outrage at President Trump's invalidated assertions, PM Modi publicly asserted, without naming President Trump. that 'there was no third-party mediation.'

India at large was incensed when soon after India had struck Pakistan's nuclear strike bases, President Trump drew "Strategic Equivalence" between Pakistan and India. It was akin to President Trump drawing 'strategic equivalence between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah. Preposterous!!!

President Trump did not stop there. When Pakistan sued for ceasefire, soon after Pak airbases hosting nuclear weapons were struck, President Trump to garner self-acclaim, asserted that it was 'he' who had pressurized Pakistan and India for a ceasefire. The facts, as the world could see, are otherwise.

This leads to the crucial question as to why President Trump "reversed gears" at height of OP SINDOOR of initial US support for India's right to strike at terror threats?

Joining the dots, two US 'transactional tactically political expediency" motivations led to President Trump's "reversing gears " in support of Pakistan. The first was geopolitical, and the second motive borne out by media reports with Pakistani visuals related to Trump family high-level business deals with Pakistan hierarchy.

United States aware that it had convergent aims with Israel to strike at Iran's nuclear weapons strike capabilities foresaw the military eventualities of possible use of Pakistan as a springboard for US military intervention in Iran should a wider conflict escalate in the Middle East.

President Trump's family business interests seem to have come into play as the second motive played out by Pakistan media visuals. This related to his son and son-in-law's visit to Pakistan, coincidental in timings, with India's OP SINDOOR operations, wherein the Trump family business groups signed a multi-million crypto-currency deal with Pakistan. Pakistan visuals showed the Trump family with Pakistan Army Chief General Munir and Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif.

Concluding, while India has kept its commitments to the US-India Strategic Partnership "intact", the United States credibility as a "Reliable Strategic Partner of India" has come under severe perceptional strain in India.

Strategic course-corrections imperatives to contain growing denouement in India lies with the United States, specifically with President Trump to dispel perceptional misgivings his assertions have generated.