UMITED STATES STRATEGICALLY INSENSITIVE POLICIES IN 2024 RENDER INDIA'S EASTERN FLANK VULNERABLE

United States policies destabilizing Bangladesh and Myanmar in closing months of 2024 betray an utter 'Strategic Insensitivity" to India's critical strategic planning and defense postures against the 'China Threat'. 

The very fundamentals of US-India Strategic Partnership based on a convergence of strategic perspectives on the 'China Threat' are perceptionally knocked-out by recent US policies moves.

US strategic naivety is ruled out, simply, because surely, the US State Department and Pentagon cannot be oblivious to geopolitical stability of Bangladesh and Myanmar for US national security needs, even if India's strategic sensitivities are overlooked in some US greater power games,

Indian policy establishment needs to question its American counterparts as to US intentions when US current moves betray a curious coincidence with China's power-play to wean away Bangladesh and Myanmar from India's natural political and economic influence.

United States constantly proclaims that India is a 'Pivotal Partner' in Indo Pacific Security. Yet, in 2024 closing months, US flawed policies on Bangladesh and Myanmar, covering India's critical flank in relation to China Threat, have rendered India vulnerable.

United States policy planners in State Department and the Pentagon cannot be so strategically naive as to not to grasp the strategic significance of Bangladesh and Myanmar to India's war-waging capabilities against the China Threat to India's Arunachal Pradesh and India's Northeastern States bordering Northern Myanmar.

Northern Bangladesh abuts deep into India creating a slender thread strip between China's massed troop concentration in Chumbi Valley, noted known as the 'Siliguri Corridor' or 'Chicken's Neck'. India's vital road and rail links traverse this slender strip.

Pro-Chinese Bangladesh can militarily collude with China to exploit Indian vulnerabilities in this marrow strip.

Further, Eastern Bangladesh adjoins a number of sensitive Indian States of Northeast. Pro-China Bangladesh could facilitate intensified Chinese -aided insurgencies against India, going on for decades. 

Northern Myanmar critically covers India's Eastern Flank from the China-India-Myanmar Trijunction right down to Southern tips of Indian States of Tripura and Mizoram.

Realistically speaking, China in event of a China-India War could "Turn the Flanks" against India by outflanking India's Arunachal Force Deployments by a forcible drive via a number of laterals available to it in Northern Myanmar. In this scenario China could exert military pressure at multiple points on Myanmar-India borders.

Contextually, therefore, United States' "Destabilization" of Bangladesh and Myanmar multiplies India's military challenges both in Arunachal Pradesh and India's Eastern Flank resting on Myanmar-India borders.

Concluding, it needs to be over-emphasized that should United States policy planners do not initiate "Course-Corrections" in their ongoing flawed policies in Bangladesh and Myanmar, detrimental to Indian security interests, then India has the right to review the very fundamentals of US-India Strategic Partnership, notwithstanding the US rhetoric.

Strategic Partnerships entail a strong component of "Strategi Trust" and taking Strategic Partners into confidence, even if US has "compulsions" to strike convergences with China. 

India's strategic sensitivities in relation to combatting China Threat can be ill-ignored by the United States in the evolving geopolitics of Indo Pacific, as it is India that adds "Strategic Ballast" for United States embedment in this conflictual expanse.

 

ASIAN SECURITY 2024: THE IMPACT OF CHINA-GENERATED MILITARY BUILDUPS OF INDIA AND JAPAN

The Asian Security environment presents a grim picture in overall terms with the over-hang of the China Threat generated military buildup arms race induced by China's territorial disputes, on land and sea, with virtually all its 14 neighbors.

India and Japan as two major Asian Powers with territorial disputes with Communist China and contending to share Asian strategic space with China, could not have escaped a military buildup race with China. 

Explosive military flashpoints abound on China's peripheries extending from the Korean Peninsula, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam and India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

Asia's maritime expanses extending from Western Pacific, South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, have emerged as confrontation expanses because of China's conflicting claims of sovereignty.

In its wake, to withstand China's belligerent political and military coercive strategies India and Japan, are engaged in a feverish buildup of their military and operational logistics capabilities.

The military buildups of India and Japan impact the overall geopolitical and strategic environment of Asian security with particular reference to Indo Pacific security.

 India and Japan not only add military ballast to the overall US-led security architecture crafted to impose deterrence on China's aggressive impulses but also as Asian Major Powers reinforce the impression that China is not confronted only by external Powers to the Region. 

Perspectives generated by India as a Strategic Partner of USA, and Japan as US Ally,, in relation to the widely perceived China need to be examined as follows: (1) Cold War 2.0 polarization (2) Salience of United States 'Countervailing Power' against China Threat (3) Diminution of China's asymmetrical military predominance over India and Japan (4) Nuclear Weaponization of Japan and South Korea (5) Overall Balance of Power, and (6)Eastern NATO possibility ?

Cold War 2.0 in effect has seamlessly emerged from Cold War 1.o in Indo Pacific with the China Threat replacing the erstwhile Soviet Threat. In 2024, Asian security is marked by intense geopolitical and military polarization with China opposing United States, US Allies and US, 'Stategic Partners'.

Cold War 2.0 in Indo Pacific is more intense than Cold War 1,0 which was Europe-centric. Conflictual flashpoints generated by China are more incendiary and could ignite with unintended consequences.

Salience of United States as "Countervailing Power" against the China Threat has perceptively increased.  Since India and Japan, by themselves could not ward off China's demonstrated aggressive provocations, reliance on United States is strategically logical.

The United States, conversely, has been actively assisting the military buildups of India and Japan, to impose deterrence on China till US military power comes into play. This arises from a dawning realization in United States that China can be confronted only with support by India and Japan.

Military buildup programs of India and Japan, ongoing and in the pipeline, will greatly off-set China's so far asymmetrical military preponderance over these two Asian Powers. 

The 'unsettling effect' of the above is visibly evident when China protests that United States is leading a 'China Containment Strategy' using India and Japan. 

The significant point to note here is that in tandem with their own military buildups, both India and Japan are engaged in military capacity buildups of smaller nations like Philippines and Vietnam, facing Chinese aggression.

Possible nuclear weaponization of Japan and South Korea, so far, has been dissuaded by the United States arising from its earlier China-policy formulations marked by over- sensitivity to Chinese strategic concerns.

With the Russia-China Axis in play in Indo Pacific, with North Korea in tow, (All Nuclear Weapons Powers), the nuclear weapons imbalance could prompt Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear deterrence against the regional nuclear threat.

The 'Overall Military Balance of Power' against China and the manifested China Threat in 2024, rests largely with the United States, buttressed by India's and Japan's sizeable military buildups.

The 'Eastern NATO' precept against the persistent China Threat has gained currency lately with China's persistent belligerence showing no signs of abating.

 India seems to be reluctant to join such military alliances. Presumably, a hangover of Nehruvian Nonalignment policies.

 Japan already has in place strong institutional links with NATO for regular consultations and coordination. Japan is a regular invitee for NATO Summits.

India may shrink from Eastern NATO appellations, but the strategic reality is, that India in 2024, is strongly enmeshed in US security mechanisms and strategic partnerships with US and NATO Nations who are increasingly turning their gaze to Indo Pacific. This is necessitated by China now being perceived as a threat in NATO formulations too.

In China's perceptions, there is already an Eastern NATO in operation with India and Japan as leading Asian Powers being pivotal Powers in United States' Indo Pacific strategy.

Concluding, the brief sketch of the perspectives generated by accelerated military buildups of India and Japan, generated by the unabated China Threat, indicate a significant impact on China. China in 2024 is rattled with these two military buildups ranged against it. 

Consequently, in Indo Pacific Region, India and Japan are no longer perceived as 'Reluctant Powers' to confront the China Threat. In a sense military buildups by India and Japan are 'Game Changers' in the overall power tussle in Asia. 

 

INDIA'S UKRAINE PEACE OFFENSIVE 2024: GEOPOLITICAL AND STRATEGIC SPINOFFS

Indian PM Narendra Modi's unique stature in global diplomacy coupled with India's image in last ten years as a responsible stakeholder in global security, has enabled India to gain headway over China's early initiatives for peace in Ukraine.

Comparatively, China is not perceived as an 'Honest Broker' to achieve a breakthrough in Ukraine peace initiatives, simply because of its Russia-China Axis linkages, and due to Western perceptions that China due to strategic reasons is prolonging the Russian Invasion of Ukraine by underwriting it with military and logistics supplies.

India on the other hand, despite its perceived proximity to Russia, more today due to cheap oil supplies, does not carry the same baggage as China does.

Further, India's Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with United States, European Majors (NATO Allies) and US Allies in Pacific induces two sets of strategic confidences in India.

The first, India's above linkages, dispels the notion that India is sold out to Russia. 

Secondly, India's policy pronouncements by PM Modi on Russian soil that war is no longer an option in modern era and that peace can be achieved through dialogue and diplomacy, has added farther credibility of India being perceived as an 'Honest Broker' in mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Contextually, therefore, it was logical for Ukraine President Zelensky to assert during PM Modi's path-breaking visit to Ukraine in August 2024 that India should "host" the Second Ukraine Peace Conference in New Delhi.

India's 'Ukraine Peace Offensive' evidenced by Indian PM Modi's historic visit to Ukraine, some six weeks after his meeting with Russian President Putin in Moscow, and the post-Ukraine visit telephonic discussions with US President Biden and Russian President Putin, highlights that India is in unique position to facilitate positive 'Face-to- Face' Meet between Russian President Putin and Ukraine President Zelensky in New Delhi.

Indian PM Modi's 'Peace Offensive' has generated approvals from the United States, European capitals yearning for peace in Europe and finds resonance in Russia.

China is the only exception reflected in Global Times that China viewed Indian efforts as unlikely to yield positive results.

With Russia bogged down in a stalemate in its Ukraine Invasion and Ukraine Forces in a counter-offensive conquering nearly 450 sq km Russia Territory, war-weariness seems to be taking over Russia.

Ukraine devastated by wanton and reckless Russian bombings of its cities and infrastructure would also be yearning for peace to return and begin reconstruction of the nation.

The 'Ukraine Peace Offensive' by India surely would be a daunting task in terms of reconciling conflicting demands of Russia and Ukraine. But then, the first small but sure, steps taken by PM Modi could pave the way for peace, with both Russian President Putin and Ukraine President Zelensky reposing faith in India and PM Modi.

With widespread yearning forthcoming for the 'Peace Offensive' one can be optimistic that Indian PM would be able with his mediation skills and global stature be able to mediate a workable end to the Ukraine War.

The geopolitical and strategic spinoffs for India in the event of its successful outcome of its 'Ukraine Peace Offensive' are many. The notable ones are stated in brief below.

Geopolitically, India would be increasingly perceived under PM Modi as a responsible stakeholder in global peace and stability, capable of "Bridging Divides" in global fault-lines.

Geopolitically, India would be able to neutralize much of the false narratives on India generated by China and some segments of Western media.

Geopolitically, India would have a stronger imprint in both Western Europe and Eastern Europe.

Geopolitically, arising from the above, would be a reinforcing of India's pivotal stature in Indo Pacific security.

Strategically, the most significant spinoff for India would be that an end to the Ukraine War would possibly end China's strategic indispensability in Russia's calculations that emerged post-Ukraine War.

Russia's over-dependance on China has been a worrying factor for Indian policy establishment in terms of Russian attitudes in event of a China-India armed conflict. Weaning away Russia from over-dependance on China, which could not be achieved by Indian diplomacy, now could possibly be achieved by Ukraine Peace Offensive.

In terms of Indian defence equipment needs, Ukraine with improved relations with India, opens up an alternative source other than Russia. As it is Ukraine is the main supplier of gas turbines for Indian Navy warships. Ukraine during the Soviet era was the main powerhouse of Russian defence equipment production.

Concluding, that while peace is an elusive commodity in case of intractable armed conflicts, and especially where Global Majors are directly or indirectly involved, war -weariness does set-in when stalemates start overtaking. That is the tipping-point for peace offensives.

Contextually, India is well-placed to work that much harder on its Ukraine Peace Offensive, however intractable. If India succeeds, a Nobel Peace Prize would be a just reward for Indian PM Modi.

 

CHINA AS A 'SUPERPOWER ' MYTHIFICATION LOSES CREDIBILITY DUE UNFOLDING GEOPOLITICS AND GEOECONOMICS VISIBLE IN 2024

 China's mythification of being a "Superpower" was authored in the United States some two decades ago arising from strategic considerations of   its then "China Policy'. In 2024, unfolding geopolitical and geoeconomic developments have perceptionally robbed China of that much aspired 'honorific'.

Contextual observations on the myth of 'China as a Superpower' were made as far back as 2015 in my Book: "China-India Military Confrontation; 21st Century Perspectives".

Some pertinent observations made then and germane to the discussion in this Paper are reproduced and discussed below.

"Of course, there is no global mechanism that can afford the deferential status of Superpower but for the writings and utterances of officialdom in the United States. This should cease because China in the classical interpretation of the term 'Superpower' has none of the attributes that are attendant on it."

China in 2024, may have an outsized military machine and nuclear weapons armory, but it lacks two important ingredients of a Superpower, and that are global force-projection & military reach and geopolitical weightage to shape the global and regional environment, positively.

Addedly, follow-up pertinent excerpts from my Book adding context to the discussion are reproduced below.

"Geopolitical seismic changes as the one China seems to be generating in the 21st Century have created in its wake new strategic 'fault-lines', new political alignments and re-alignments and which are visible in 2015."

 "Going by historical lessons, also attendant in such strategic challenges by a 'revisionist power' rise two other realities of the coalescing of lesser powers around the power that is being challenged, as opposed to the 'revisionist power' and also the propensity of the 'revisionist power' boxing much above its true strategic weight. This factor leads to unintended strategic consequences."

China, unlike Former Soviet Union as the then contending Superpower of the United States has been unable to forge the equivalent of a Warsaw Pact Bloc of Communist countries alliance straddling Central Europe, which endowed Soviet Union geopolitical and geostrategic weight to earn the sobriquet of a Superpower.

China in 2024, with the exception of North Korea and Pakistan, has no line-up of 'Natural Allies' like US-led NATO or the interwoven US-led bilateral and multilateral security groupings in the Indo Pacific.

China does not 'straddle' IndoPacific. It not only has to contend with the United States but also to contend with two 'Major Contending Asian Powers', namely India and Japan. Both India and Japan have contentious boundary disputes with China.

The current crystalizing Russia-China Axis post-Ukraine has limitations when competing Russian and Chinese narratives surface in Central Asia and even in Iran.

China's political and military influence is felt and more acutely confined to its peripheries in Indo Pacific with remote sensing in Europe.

In terms of military and combat effectiveness, Russia draws a legacy inheritance from some of the bitterest fighting of World War II against blitzkrieg German military operations deep on Russian soil and the Soviet Army's later advances to Berlin.

Chinese Armed Forces have no comparable war and battle-hardened experiences except for the Korean War of early 1950s where Chinese 'Mass-Force' operations having over-run South Korea up to its Southern tip of Pusan were 'rolled-back' across the Yalu River in North Korea by US General MacArthur's application of modernized military machine. 

Chinese military power stood checkmated notably as far back as 1979 by Vietnam and effectively since 2020 by India along its Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

Admittedly, China has at its command in 2024 massive conventional and nuclear weapons military machine. But China's much' mythicized ' Superpower military machine has not been battle-tested in prolonged modernized military operations like the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War.

Doubts on the Chinese military machine military effectiveness, the mainstay of China's mush aspired Superpower status, also arise from the deleterious effects of wholesale purges in its military hierarchy by incumbent President Xi Jinping. That it does have an impact is not debatable.  

Geopolitically, in 2024, China has by its self-inflicted aggressive impulses on its peripheries pushed itself into a corner. Indo Pacific as a virtual whole is deeply polarized against China. The resonance of this geopolitical cornering of China now extends all the way to Europe and NATO.

Geoeconomically, the very economic resurgence of China into double-digit growth and which financed its Hitlerian outsized military arsenal has now whittled down to single digits of 4-5% growth rates. Can China sustain this military machine and for how long?

China's economic superpower predominance in manufacturing and semi-conductors which prevailed for decades in American strategic calculations is now 'moth-eaten' by flight of foreign capital and increasing trade-barriers against China's lop-sided export trade surpluses.

The disintegration of the Former Soviet Union as United States 'Contending' Superpower' was brought about by US Reaganisque dual policies of inflicting an arms race on the Soviet Union with a consequent stagnant economic decline.

China may have learnt all the lessons from the disintegration of the Former Soviet Union but as the policies underway in 2024 of China's President Xi Jinping indicate that the lessons learnt are now being "unlearnt"

Concluding, it is incumbent upon the United States which beatified China with the mythicized hallowed term of being a 'Superpower', to now revise such an assessment.

 China at best, in my assessment. is just another Major Power with an outsized military arsenal which has generated an arms race not only with the United States but also in Indo Pacific. The disintegration of Former Soviet Union due to arms race impact, is a grim pointer. 

 

UNITED STATES AND INDIA STRATEGIC INTERDEPENDENCE IN 2024 TRANSCENDS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY TEMPLATE

Global geopolitical dynamics and adversarial configurations affecting national security interests of United States and India in 2024, presage, that in the second decade of the 21st Century, the strategic interdependence of the United States and India, would transcend the Indo Pacific security template, even more markedly.

The 'China Threat' would continue to be the most potent and dangerous threat to both United States and India in the Indo Pacific security context.

The above assessment is a logical conclusion that arises from the adversarial trajectory that China has adopted towards the United States and India, which shows no signs of restraint, or reversal.

China on the contrary has moved to further reinforce the adversarial equations with the United States and India. China has forged the Russia-China Axis to counterbalance the United States. To offset India, China forged the China-Pakistan Axis, besides attempting to dilute Russia-India relations.

China has gridlocked itself in confrontation with the United States not only in Indo Pacific, but that hostility manifests itself, directly and by proxy, in the Middle East, East Mediterranean, South America, and the Oceanic Island States of the Southern Pacific.

In 2024, even Europe and NATO have not escaped the tremors of the unfolding and expanding China Threat transcending Indo Pacific confines.

China is locked with India in an intense military confrontation on the over 3,000 km length of India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet. It is no longer a boundary dispute but has now accentuated geopolitical dimensions.

Reflected in my Book; 'China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives' in 2015 was "The unfolding China-India geopolitical rivalry in the 21st Century, notably, is underwritten by and accentuated by the mid-20th Century, China-India military confrontation whose seeds were sown by the forcible military occupation of Tibet by China."

Taking all of the above factors, and adding, China's strategic forays impinging on US security interests across the globe, and Chinese attempts to stamp on Indian security and influence interests in its neighborhood, the stage seems to be set for the United States and India to mould and integrate their 'Strategic Interdependence' in more substantive contours.

Pertinent, therefore, is the need to spell out briefly, the geopolitical, military and economic interdependencies of the United States and India.

Geopolitical interdependence between United States and India was recognized by United States and India, at the turn of the Millennium when the US-India Strategic Partnership was initially signed.

These geopolitical imperatives have multiplied in the last two decades as the China Threat magnified and the United States dispensed with its strategic ambiguities on China and the China-Pakistan Axis recognizing the futility of molding China to be a responsible stakeholder in global affairs.

In 2024, India figures high in United States global geopolitical perspectives, and vice-versa, too. This has led to both the United States and India elevating their Strategic Partnership to a 'Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership'.

Militarily, the United States and India, having well-recognized their strategic interdependence have in place today institutionalized and integrated security mechanisms like BESA, LEMOA and COMCASA, which both in peace and moreso, in times of operational emergencies would enable effective military responses.

Miliary professionals can decode how the United States security architecture in Western Pacific and India's military deployments on China Occupied Tibet Borders and Indian Navy's predominance in Indian Ocean contribute to both Nations' interdependence.

India is well-poised to emerge as the 'Third Largest Economy ' in the world, with United States at 'Number One'. India's economic rise has arisen to this high point with infusion of FDI from the United States and its Allies, arising from the strengthening of the US-India Strategic Partnership.

In tandem, with India's current political fast-track measures on 'Manufacturing' and 'Semi-Conductors' being priority aims, the United States dependence on China in these two vital fields would be strategically reduced. US and Western major business interests are relocating to India from China.

The 'Strategic Interdependence' template of United States and India having been laid out, a crucial question that begs an answer would be the longevity of this 'Strategic Interdependence'. 

In my assessment, 'Strategic Interdependence' is unlike to reduce or be devalued, simply for the reason, that even with the possibility of 'China Threat' becoming non-existent, the unfolding geopolitical and geoeconomic factors would continue to sustain the bonds of the Global Stategic Partnership between the two countries.    

Concluding, it needs to be emphasized that that both the United States and India should endeavor to respect each other's strategic sensitivities on vital global and regional issues.

 Here, the call is much higher on the United States which at times lets political expediencies offering short-term tactical gains predominate the long-term perspectives of this vital 'Strategic Interdependence 'between the United States and India.