INDIA'S CHINA POLICY SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY INDIAN NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS AND NOT TIED TO UNITED STATES COAT-TAILS

 Perceptionally, India's China-policy in the last 25 years emerges as tied to United States coattails in terms of 'China Threat' perceptions. India after OP SINDOOR decisive Pakistan military victory over Pakistan, (notwithstanding Pakistan's nuclear overhang), India needs to reset its China-policy reflecting its new military stature and economic might.

Notably, while China was aiding Pakistan with real-time operational intelligence during this War, China did not repeat its traditional propensity to issue military warning ultimatums to India in favor of Pakistan in distress.

Significantly, the 'China Threat' will "persist" in Indian threat perceptions, till resolution of the boundary dispute and China's reset of its Pakistan-policy. What has changed in 2025 is the new context added by India's military and economic rise.

Let it be highlighted initially itself is that India's military and economic rise have resulted from India's own inherent strengths and robust national security policies of the BJP-led PM Narendra Modi Government since 2014.

Ever since 2014, PM Modi has relentlessly pursued the strategy of significant increase of India's 'WAR PREPAREDNESS' and crafting a resurgent Indian economy. The results in 2025 are that India today is both a global geopolitical heavyweight and an economic giant.

China seems to be awakening to this reality.

The United States and Russia as major strategic partners of India 'may have' contributed only marginally to India's rise.

During the past 25 years China resorted to multifaceted attempts to contain India's military and economic rise. But after Dokalam Standoff in 2018 and the Galwan Military Clashes in 2021 Chinese perceptions underwent change, witnessing India's massive military mobilization in Eastern Ladakh.

The final blow to convince China was India's OP SINDOOR crippling strikes on Pakistan incapacitating Pakistan's offensive capabilities within two hours, despite Pakistan's China-origin military inventories. China should now be convinced that India's Regional Power capabilities stood proven.

China's strategic reality check on India in 2025 would indicate to China that its 'India Containment' policies were no longer valid and that China must adapt to "Manage India's Rise".

Contextually, what added more context to China's recent political outreaches to India is a worsening of China-US relations. 

It was China's growing belligerence earlier which pushed India to strategically embrace the United States. Ironically, in 2025, United States patently anti-Indian stances under President Trump 2.0 and his punitive Trade Tariffs against India because of the Russia-connection, will stimulate India to edge closer to normalization of its China-ties.

India's national security interests rest on two foreign policy determinants of national/military security and economic security.

On both of the above counts, India after much investment of strategic capital on United States and its Strategic Partnership, in 2025, faces the stark reality on whether it was worth it?

In terms   of the hovering 'China Threat' India's strategic partnership with United States has not imparted any added 'China Deterrence' in India's favor. United States continues to have misgivings on India's stress on its Strategic Autonomy postures.

In terms of India's economic security, United States trend of punitive tariffs policies on India to arrest India's economic rise and dictate its political preferences has been disappointing and shocking.

O both counts, United States "credibility' as a pivotal Strategic Partner of India has nosedived in 2025. 

India's foreign policy planners must be actively alert to this new reality and recalibrate both its US-policy and its China-policy.

It needs emphasis that United States China-policy has never been anchored or aligned to suit India's National Security interests. Many a times United States China-policy ran counter to India's National Security interests.

There were times when United States strategic convergences were aligned with China's strategy of building Pakistan's nuclear and missiles arsenal against India.

China hopefully by now would have realized its strategic follies to use Pakistan Army as its proxy bulwark against India in the Indian Subcontinent.

 India in 2025, with its current rising trajectories, and with United States having not proved a "Credible Strategic Partner" should strike the trajectory of its China-policy detached from United States' unpredictable China-policy formulations.

It needs to be highlighted from my past writings that the United States in terms of its China-policy operates on two planes. To bolster its Forward Military Presence in Japan and South Korea and to win over to its strategic orbit pivotal partners like India it "plays up and sensationalizes" the 'China Threat'.

When it comes to US-China policy formulations, the 'China Threat' is expediently forgotten or put aside for politically expedient policies, much to disappointment and chagrin of US Allies/Strategic Partners, for short-term transactional gains for United States.

Therefore, United States sermons on the 'China Threat' to India needs to factor-in this aspect when arriving on India perceptions of the 'Chian Threat'.

Concluding, emphasis must be laid on the stark reality that China can no longer indulge in political, military and economic coercion of India and nor of 'India Containment'. India too must recognize that India's strategic partnership with United States is not a strategically validated strong deterrent against China.

Asian stability and global security would be strengthened by China and India seeking strategic convergences and "stop being used by pitting one against the other" to serve United States strategic ends

PAKISTAN-BANGLADESH INTENSIFYING MILITARY TIES: INDIA'S RECOMMENDED COUNTER-STRATEGIES

Bangladesh ever since August 2024 with the ouster of then duly elected PM Sheikh Hasina by planned and calibrated widespread student riots generated by United States 'Deep State' agencies, has rapidly downslided from stable political and economic pro-India Nation to an unstable, volatile, and economically tottering highly Islamic 'Radicalized State'.

The major plank of the Yunus Administration since taking over is to stoke rabid anti-Indian hysteria, giving greater prominence to Islamic Jihadi outfits, encourage greater involvement of Pakistani Jihadi outfits with Bangladeshi counterparts and a significant intensification of military exchanges with Pakistan Army. 

In the runup to Sheikh Hasina's contrived ouster were enough reports that suggested that both United States and China were seeking a 'regime change' in Dhaka.

Nobel Laureate Mohd Yunus, with deep links to US aid-agencies and US NGOs was put in place as Interim Chief Adviser (read PM) to administer the country.

Caretaker PM Yunus has delayed Bangladesh Elections inordinately, presumably, as early elections in Bangladesh does not suit the geopolitical interests of his external political masters.

In the process, Bangladesh under Caretaker PM Yunus has evolved into a highly anti-India State, given wide access to Pakistan Army presence in Bangladesh. In tandem, Bangladesh is buying offensive military hardware from Turkey, yet another State inimical to India.

Hindu minorities are being brutally persecuted and Hindu Temples destroyed. All this under the watch of Nobel Laureate Yunus.

India cannot afford to ignore the geopolitical and military implications of Bangladesh's downslide, especially with growing involvement of Pakistan Army, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Politically unstable Bangladesh is a serious security risk for India's Northeastern States.

Greater security dangers are posed to Indian security by Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI getting added footholds on borders with India's North East States to stoke disruptive operations against India

India must immediately put into place geopolitical, military and economic strategies before Bangladesh assumes "Monstrous Security Threat" proportions jeopardizing the security of India's Sikkim and Arunachal Borders with China. 

Geopolitically, India must make Pakistan's Western Frontiers militarily vulnerable by intensification of India's ties with the Afghan Taliban Government. Fortunately, this is in operation.

'Regime Change' option needs to be kept alive by India should April 2026 Elections throw-up an anti-Indian Government in Bangladesh. India's premier external agency RAW should now focus on more "Offensive Intelligence Operations". 

In tandem, India must work more proximately with Myanmar to "Heat-Up" Bangladesh's Eastern Borders to checkmate Bangladesh's anti-India adventurism.

In both of the above cases, India will run into geopolitical pressures from United States to desist. United States must be firmly told that India is following the American playlist.

Militarily, Interim PM Yunus has been making veiled threats about Siliguri Corridor and the vulnerability of India's North East being at the mercy of Bangladesh.

India needs to clip Bangladesh's wings by planning and military executing the slicing away of Bangladesh's Northernmost Rangpur Division. This lies astride the Siliguri Corridor. Occupation of Rangpur would enable adding considerable width to India's Siliguri Corridor.

Militarily, the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh should be put under sustained Indian military pressure to rein-in Mohd Yunus's adventuristic streaks.

'Economic Coercion' also needs to be applied and planned for with an ultimate economic blockade by land and sea as a final step. India has already stopped transshipment rights of Bangladesh exports through Indian ports.

'Weaponization of Waters' against Bangladesh also needs to be planned for as is being done in case of Pakistan.

In terms of India's Internal Security, strong National Security imperatives exist to divide West Bengal's Northern Districts astride the Siliguri Corridor into a Union Territory by adding the Darjeeling and Kalimpong Divisions to it.

Concluding, if India wants to emerge as the undisputed Reginal Power of the Indian Subcontinent, then India would need to take and show that India will not hesitate to take 'Hard Decisions' to safeguard its legitimate National Security requirements, including not tolerating external powers to create geopolitical instability in India's neighborhood.

 

SOUTH ASIA POWER DYNAMICS AND CHINA-PAKISTAN AXIS STRATEGIC FACTOR RELEVANCE 2025

South Asia power dynamics till 2025 were largely determined by the interplay of power rivalries between India and the China-Pakistan with United States thrown-in as an oscillating factor.

China's strong strategic and concubinage colonial hold over Pakistan Army as the 'controlling factor' of Pakistan's foreign policy was a consistent "constant" ever since 1962, arising from their mutual objective of applying 'strategic restraint' on India and its rise as the predominant regional power.

The South Asia Power Dynamics Template stands considerably changed in second half of 2025 with India unshackling its traditional concerns of China-Pakistan Axis coming in play forcefully.

India's Op SINDOOR decisive punitive strikes crippling Pakistan's offensive capabilities coupled with strikes on its major terrorist infrastructure, within the space of thirty minutes in May 2025 forced Pakistan Army to sue for peace changed South Asia power dynamics. China unlike in the past did not issue any military 'ultimatums' to India.

Notably, geopolitically and militarily strong India backed by its sizeable economic power crafted during 2014-25 period, under the Modi Government, felt emboldened to call Pakistan Army's bluff of Nuclear War retaliation coupled with Pakistan Army's over-reliance on China-Pakistan Axis being actively operationalized in the event of war with India.

Strategic Reality Check of South Asia power dynamics, in second half of 2025, backed by following indicators call into question the strategic relevance of China-Pakistan Axis to both China and Pakistan: (1) China-Pakistan Axis operationalization was restricted to China sharing real-time intelligence on Indian military operations (2) Pakistan militarily "Crippled" by India's decapacitating military strikes turned to United States for restraining India and not China (3) India had achieved all its war-aims within thirty minutes and much before United States could even decode what was happening and decide on any intervention decision (4) India in the run-up to Op SINDOOR launching had clearly indicated to United States its firm intentions.

Post-Op SINDOOR, geopolitical events in South Asia further buttressing India's predominance as the Regional Power in South Asia need enumerating (1) Afghanistan's Taliban Government moves strategically closer to India (2) Nepal's pro-Chinese Communist Government is swept out of power by popular upsurge (3) Sri Lanka pivots towards India (4) Maldives adopts India-friendly political moves.

When the above 'Strategic Reality Check' and South Asia geopolitical events are superimposed on ongoing violent political disturbances in Pakistan's Heartland, Pakistan's Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunawa provinces in revolt, and Pakistan in virtual war situations with Neighbors on both Western and Eastern Flanks, should not China be reviewing and recasting its South Asia policies template?  

China reviewing its policies lately can be read by joining the dots of the BRICS Tianjin Summit and some movement in political outreach to India. China needs to exhibit much more to accept India as the South Asia 'Reginal Power' and cede the Indian Subcontinent as India's natural 'Area of Influence'.

Concluding, one can assert that China cannot for long continue to cling to the strategic belief that Pakistan is a strategic asset for China and that the China-Pakistan Axis can restrain India's rise.

Contemporary unfolding geopolitical and economic realities, and Pakistan's potential fragmentation inevitability, will force China to abandon Pakistan.

UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES FACE CHALLENGING TIMES SEPTEMBER 2025

The United States Armed Forces as the most powerful Armed Forces in the world, equipped with high-tech armaments and combat tested in war theaters all over the world, face challenging times ahead with the unfolding of US National Security Strategy 2025 (NSS2025 and the Quantico Address by President Trump and his Secretary of War Hegseth.

The US Armed Forces in end-2025 perceptionally face bigger challenges of political interference, in their time-tested professional ethos, far transcending the strategic challenges posed by China and Russia as major adversaries of the United States.

The stress currently being made out in Trump 2,0 Administration that the US Armed Forces need to be professionally enthused with the "Warrior Spirit" presumably arises from the abrupt withdrawal of US Armed Forces from Afghanistan.

It cannot be forgotten that US Armed Forces ABRUPT EXIT from Afghanistan was a political decision for which both Trump Administration 1.0 and Biden Administration can be called to account. It was the Trump 1.0 Administration which had opened negotiations with the Afghan Taliban at Doha, Qatar. 

United States failure in Afghanistan in its second intervention cannot be blamed on US Armed Forces professional competence, but as reflected in my extensive writings on Afghanistan, the failure was attributable to "Political Micromanagement by Washinton" of US military operations shackling Commanders and troops.

The NSS 2025 as reflected in my earlier essay spins US National Strategy on its head by lowering US 'threat perceptions' of China and Russia and giving primacy to fighting "Invasion from Within" in words of President Trump at Quantico. 

Geopolitical impact of NSS 2025 generated ripples globally as its major impact was on the credibility of United States as nett provider of global security and US commitments to its multilateral military alliances like NATO, bilateral Mutual Security Pacts like those with Japan and South Korea and strategic partnerships like India.

That is why I had titled my preceding post as the "United States as a Fading Superpower" and my analysis can be re-read for details of geopolitical impact.

However, what has created a storm in United States, both political and military, going by US electronic and print media critical reports is the Address by President Trump and his Secretary of War Hegseth on September 30, 2025.

The context of this storm goes back to the first few months of Trump Administration 2.0 in which 15-18 Generals of 'Three Star' and 'Four Star' resigned or made to resign by presidential directives. Reasons attributed in US media hinted at these Generals not attuned to Trump 2.0policies. 

The Quantico Meet saw over 800 senior military commanders above 'One Star' being unprecedently summoned from all over the world, to be addressed by President Trump and Secretary of War Hegseth on what perceptionally be termed as the "Trump Agenda" for the US Armed Forces with three more years to go.

Both the US and the Indian media have carried details of Quantico Meet and those will not be repeated here. What follows are major deductions that arise from official pronouncements made at the Meet.

Major issues, arising from the above, in terms of challenges likely to unfold for the US Armed Forces, are as follows:

• US Civil-Military Relations
• US Miliary Leadership Challenges
• US Armed Forces Heading for Politicization?
• US Armed Forces Morale
• US Armed Forces Deployment for Law & Order Duties in Major US Cities--Political Opposition Building-up

US Civil-Military Relations are headed for 'strenuous times' going by spate of Higher Military Hierarchy resignations, to be read as 'dismissals'. The warnings at Quantico that there is no scope for dissent with the Trump Agenda was implicitly indicated with the statement that such Commanders should resign or face dismissal. Certainly, elements of 'trust-cleavage' in Civil-Military are bound to set in.

US Senior Military Commanders will now be faced with daunting leadership challenges as to how to implement the Trump Agenda, more political than military, within the framework of existing overall ethos of the US Armed Forces.

US Armed Forces have distinctly remained   "Apolitical" sworn to defend the US Constitution. Going by the spate of dismissals of Generals and the call at Quantico that those who differ with the Trump Agenda should resign have led to fears that US Armed Forces are headed towards "Politicization"?

US Armed Forces perceptionally will be faced with serious "morale problems" both in the Military Hierarchy and Rank & File, generated by professional uncertainties arising from transformation of major US decades-long professional mindsets. 

 

In particular the 'evangelical' assertion by Secretary of War Hegseth could be disturbing for US Armed Forces:  "The era of politically correct, overly sensitive leadership ends right now.........strip away social justice, politically correct and toxic ideological garbage that had infested our Department. RESIGN IF YOU DO NOT AGREE". 

US Armed Forces prime focus on China and Russia threats will not cease despite President Trump's directive to focus on 'the enemy within' and beefing-up of Northern Commands and Southern Command in Continental USA.

Further, President Trump's decision to unilaterally and unprecedently deploy US troops for maintenance of Law & Order duties in major Cities has met with stiff opposition and legal challenges from Governors of States. 

US Armed Forces will now have to shoulder this responsibility

In Conclusion, what is being discussed within United States is that the US Armed Forces have the resilience to ride out these challenging times. But the palpable fear is that professional damages that may accrue. may take "decades" to be set right.

US media reports that there was no applause at the Quantico Meet after address by President Trump and his Secretary of War----just stony silence of the US Military Hierarchy.

Meanwhile, what will be under minute scrutiny by Major Powers, more specifically, China and Russia, would be as to how the after-effects of NSS 2025 and the apex level assertions at Quantico Meet unfold and effect the 'Military Effectiveness' of the US Armed Forces.

CHINA'S STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES FOR SUSTAINABLE PEACE WITH INDIA DICTATE CHINESE 'RECAST' OF SOUTH ASIA POLICIES

The Tianjin Summit Declaration (September 01, 2025) saw the three Major Powers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), namely Russia-India-China, declaring their intention to strive for a Multipolar World Order with emphasis on security, economic and technological cooperation.

Globally, the geopolitical landscape in September 2025 stands severely disrupted by the strategic uncertainties spawned by US President Trump's unpredictable unilateralist policies obsessed with trying to recapture United States "Unipolar Moment".

US President Trump's fixative obsession of' 'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) inherently carries the seeds of confrontation as the evolving Multipolar World is no longer willing to concede to 'American Exceptionalism.

Contextually therefore, the salience of the Russia-India-CChina Trilateral stands "revived and needs re-inven ontextually therefore, the salience of the Russia-India- tion". While Russia and India enjoy strategic convergences and proximity, it is China which has to strive for 'Strategic Convergences & Strategic Proximity" with India by cementing Indian 'Strategic Trust".

China in September 2025, more than ever, geopolitically and strategically, needs "Sustainable Peace" with India, wherein the US President Trump perceives that China is a more potent threat to US National Secuity than Russia. 

US strategic formulations on China are likely to follow a two-prong strategy which would incorporate tactical 'China Appeasement policies and the second prong aimed at 'driving a wedge in Russia-China relations to weaken their strategic nexus.

The optics at Tianjin Summit provoked the United States to warn India not to strategically embrace China.

Strategic reality check would indicate that in the first decade and a half of 21st Century, it was China that pushed India into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States by its unrestrained military buildup of Pakistan including nuclear weaponization and long -range missiles.

It is now incumbent on China to draw back India from fully embracing the United States, and reinforcing the Tianjin Summit 'Spirit ' for a truly Multipolar World,

In September 2025, specifically after India's military blitzkrieg OP SINDOOR operations and despite China providing 'real-time 24x7 intelligence of Indian military movements', Pakistan lay militarily paralyzed and prostrate.

 China, in view of the above needs to answer the following questions to itself, namely: (1) Have China's strategies of 'containing India though proxy use of Pakistan as 'spoiler state' worked? (2) Does Pakistan have the potential even with exponential increase in Chinese military aid to effectively contain India in future? (3) Can China, even with Pakistan's (despite Pakistan's spasmodic dalliance propensity with United States) in tow face a 'Three Front War', should India discard multipolarity and tilt towards United States? 

The answers to the above questions for China would be a RESOUNDING 'NO'. Simply, because India is last 11 years of PM Modi era has surged into a strategic, military and economic geopolitical heavyweight acknowledged by Global Major Powers.

Concluding therefore, in light of the analysis above, overwhelming strategic imperatives exist for China to strive for "Sustainable Peace" with India, whose starting point, imperatives dictate, that China should "Recast" its Pakistan-centric Sout Asia policy formulations. 

China needs to recognize that China cannot succeed to achieve a Multipolar Word Order, without India at its side. Rusia realizes this reality it is China, that now has to adopt this path. Then only the 'Tianjin Declaration "spirit" would be meaningful prevail.

It is China's call now?