UNITED STATES PECEPTIONALLY A "FADING SUPERPOWER" ON GEOPOLITICAL AND STRATEGIC INDICATORS IN 2025

The United States is a "Fading Superpower" as per geopolitical and strategic indicators surfacing in 2025. Nothing validates this earlier assertion by me than the recently leaked Draft of the "US National Security Strategy 2025" prepared by the newly designated United States "Department of War' of the earlier US Defense Department.

The 'US National Security Strategy 2025' Document (NSS 2025) which will provide the 'Strategic Blueprint' which will be issued under the signature of President Donald Trump, on analysis, has "flipped on its head" United States geopolitical policies and strategic formulations that formed the fundamentals of sustaining United States unique pole position as a 'Superpower'.

The "Fading Superpower" assertion made by me is strongly validated by the implicit "Retrenchment of United States Global Predominance" when major REVERSALS of erstwhile US geopolitical stances of NSS 25 are analyzed.

Major REVERSALS of US geopolitical stances and strategic postures can be briefly highlighted as follows: (1) China and Russia Threats to US Security cited as 'Prime Threats' in pre-Trump 2.0 eras now stand 'downgraded as "Secondary Concerns" (2) Homeland Security and Western Hemisphere security are now 'Top Priorities' superseding the China Threat and Russia Threat (3) European Security burden to be shouldered by European Nations (4) Indo Pacific Security burden is being shifted to Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Major geopolitical deductions that implicitly strike my mind and which again validate my assertion that United States is a "Fading Superpower" are discussed below.

Heading the list is the stark reality that United States' 'Deterrent Power' and capabilities against China and Russia have failed. Reversing the China Threat and Russia Threat from Prime Threats to 'Secondary Concerns' is a tacit admission of erosion of US Superpower status.

Prioritizing narrow Homeland Security and Western Hemisphere Security over United States Global Threats from the Russia-China Axis betrays US fears that greater dangers lurk in terms of US Internal Security and Chinese penetration in Major Latin American Nations.

Passing-on the burden of European Security and Indo Pacific Security to regional nations earlier deemed as critical strategic sub-systems in US Global Strategic Calculus starkly represents that 'US Global Predominance is under Retrenchment'.

Overriding and overarching this sudden 'Retreat of American Empire" which emerged in post-Worl War II era is the reality check that the United Sates with President Trump having assumed power feels unable to shoulder the economic load of maintaining US Global Predominance a 'Perquisite' of the status of a Superpower.

The resort to punitive tariffs against Allies and Strategic Partners appears as a strategy to ride-over US economic problems of overstretched military power.

'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) which is President Trump's favorite emphasis currently seems more as a political subterfuge as the United States seeks to solve its geopolitical dilemmas.

My essay titled "United States Stares at Erosion of its Superpower Status in 2025 Due to President Trump 2.o Policies" of Aug 24, 2025, which was published before NSS 25 draft stood leaked, quoting extensively from Paul Kennedy's 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers' was an early pointer to this effect.

Once again, it would be pertinent to quote my major observation made in the above essay which read "American Historians would record 2025 as the inflexion point when the fall of America's Imperial Sway over global predominance power-play stood hastened by President Trump's policies alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners for short term transactional gains".

Can this process be reversed? Unlikely in President Trump's tenure. Can subsequent follow-up US President's retrieve the loss of US global predominance? Difficult as it takes decades to build up 'Credibility' as a Superpower,

Concluding, the dismal thought that strikes one's mind is that international geopolitics is headed towards a greater churn than presently being witnessed. Would it take World War III to throw up a NEW SUPERPOWER?

P.S Further analysis of military implications for India and Indo Pacific security in which India is intensely involved will follow in my next Article.

 

CHINA'S STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES FOR SUSTAINABLE PEACE WITH INDIA DICTATE CHINESE 'RECAST' OF SOUTH ASIA POLICIES

The Tianjin Summit Declaration (September 01, 2025) saw the three Major Powers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), namely Russia-India-China, declaring their intention to strive for a Multipolar World Order with emphasis on security, economic and technological cooperation.

Globally, the geopolitical landscape in September 2025 stands severely disrupted by the strategic uncertainties spawned by US President Trump's unpredictable unilateralist policies obsessed with trying to recapture United States "Unipolar Moment".

US President Trump's fixative obsession of' 'Making America Great Again' (MAGA) inherently carries the seeds of confrontation as the evolving Multipolar World is no longer willing to concede to 'American Exceptionalism.

Contextually therefore, the salience of the Russia-India-CChina Trilateral stands "revived and needs re-inven ontextually therefore, the salience of the Russia-India- tion". While Russia and India enjoy strategic convergences and proximity, it is China which has to strive for 'Strategic Convergences & Strategic Proximity" with India by cementing Indian 'Strategic Trust".

China in September 2025, more than ever, geopolitically and strategically, needs "Sustainable Peace" with India, wherein the US President Trump perceives that China is a more potent threat to US National Secuity than Russia. 

US strategic formulations on China are likely to follow a two-prong strategy which would incorporate tactical 'China Appeasement policies and the second prong aimed at 'driving a wedge in Russia-China relations to weaken their strategic nexus.

The optics at Tianjin Summit provoked the United States to warn India not to strategically embrace China.

Strategic reality check would indicate that in the first decade and a half of 21st Century, it was China that pushed India into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States by its unrestrained military buildup of Pakistan including nuclear weaponization and long -range missiles.

It is now incumbent on China to draw back India from fully embracing the United States, and reinforcing the Tianjin Summit 'Spirit ' for a truly Multipolar World,

In September 2025, specifically after India's military blitzkrieg OP SINDOOR operations and despite China providing 'real-time 24x7 intelligence of Indian military movements', Pakistan lay militarily paralyzed and prostrate.

 China, in view of the above needs to answer the following questions to itself, namely: (1) Have China's strategies of 'containing India though proxy use of Pakistan as 'spoiler state' worked? (2) Does Pakistan have the potential even with exponential increase in Chinese military aid to effectively contain India in future? (3) Can China, even with Pakistan's (despite Pakistan's spasmodic dalliance propensity with United States) in tow face a 'Three Front War', should India discard multipolarity and tilt towards United States? 

The answers to the above questions for China would be a RESOUNDING 'NO'. Simply, because India is last 11 years of PM Modi era has surged into a strategic, military and economic geopolitical heavyweight acknowledged by Global Major Powers.

Concluding therefore, in light of the analysis above, overwhelming strategic imperatives exist for China to strive for "Sustainable Peace" with India, whose starting point, imperatives dictate, that China should "Recast" its Pakistan-centric Sout Asia policy formulations. 

China needs to recognize that China cannot succeed to achieve a Multipolar Word Order, without India at its side. Rusia realizes this reality it is China, that now has to adopt this path. Then only the 'Tianjin Declaration "spirit" would be meaningful prevail.

It is China's call now?

UNITED STATES-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP 2025: "PAST PEREFECT, FUTURE IMPERFECT"

In mid-2025, the US-India Global Comprehensive Strategic Partnership crafted laboriously for 30 years by bipartisan political support in both United States and India under different political dispensations stands washed away by the 'unpredictable but predictable' impulses of US President Trump 20. 

The US-India Strategic Partnership in September could be aptly termed as "Past Perfect, Future Imperfect".

President Trump's colossal blunder in castigating and imposing punitive tariffs on India mindless of the US strategic losses is akin to China stabbing Nehru in the back in 1962 for crusading for Communist China.

President Trump virtually stabbed Indian PM Narendra Modi who steered the US-India strategic Partnership to greater geopolitical and strategic heights.

India's 'National Psyche' stood greatly "singed" by China's betrayal of Indian trust. Likewise, in a matter of days India's 'National Psyche' stands "singed" by President Trump's betrayal of India's 'Strategic Trust' spanning 30 years.

Even past top US personages of previous US Administrations have bitterly criticized President Trump for this 'Himalayan Blunder' in jeopardizing the future of US-India Strategic Partnership due to personal pique and a bloated ego.

In terms of future perspectives, the US-India Strategic Partnership stands condemned to an "IMPERFECT FUTURE' even if the Trump Administration indulges in belated damage control. The broken pieces even if joined by strong epoxies by United States cannot hide the 'cracks though joined' of the Strategic Partnership edifice.

Geopolitically, and for reasons of Indian PM Modi's stress on "Multipolarity", India may not snap ties with United States, like it did with China. But to believe that US-India relations will revert to old format of Indian implicit trust in United States is a distant cry.

Concluding, it needs to be stressed that Modi's India 2025 is not the timid India of the Cold War era when India took refuge in 'Non-alignment' policy formulations. Modi's India 2025 is a Global "Geopolitical Heavyweight" and the World's third largest economy, whose Strategic Preferences may tilt the balance-of- power, either side it sways.

United States President Trump and his advisers need to reckon with this strategic reality. India in 2025 brooks no "political patronizing" from any quar

CHINA-INDIA RESET OF RELATIONS SEPTEMBER 2025: SHORT-TERM GEOPOLITICAL COMPELLANCE OR LONG-TERM STRATEGIC VISION?

Strategic convergence between China and India has perceptionally emerged in September 2025 emanating from US President Trump's 'Trade Wars' with China and President Trump's personalized 'Tariffs Terrorism' against India Post-Op SINDOOR decisive military victory over Pakistan in June 2025. 

China figures high in United States' Threat Perceptions for decades as a potent threat to US national interest and influence. But India for the last 25 years has figured in American policies as a 'Valued Pivotal Stategic Partner', until advent of Trump 2.0 Administration in 2025.

This only proves the old-age adage of international relations that in geopolitics 'There are no Permanent Friends or Foes, only National Interest. It did not take long for a personally piqued US President to jettison the US-India Strategic Partnership.

Geopolitical compellance, as first reaction, seems to have been the major factor with China taking the lead earlier this year to "Reset" China-India relations, with India too, responding positively to China's offer.

The critical question that policy makers and strategic analysts worldwide are tackling in September 2025, as Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi confabulate at SCO Tianjin Summit in China, is whether this is 'Short-term Geopolitical Compellance' or 'Long-Term Strategic Vision'?

Foreign policies of Nations do not operate in a geopolitical vacuum but greatly impelled and influenced by contemporary and unfolding geopolitical forces.

Accordingly, it is 'Short-term Geopolitical Compellance' arising from prevailing US hostility against China and India that obviously and logically have nudged China's and India's moves to objectively 'Reset' their relations at Tianjin.

However, it is pertinent to state that China's and India's moves to rest heir relations took birth at SCO Summit in Kazan, Russia in July 2024, and therefore predates the Trump Factor.

So that gives an indication that the 'Trump Factor' in 'China-India Reset' may have only been a catalyst to the process that President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi initiated at SCO Summit Kazan in July 2024.  

Analytically, therefore, one can concede that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi, mindful of geopolitical forces at play and unfolding, recognized that 'Long Term Strategic Vision' dictated that China and India needed 'Redefine China-Indian Relations'.

Easier said than done, but then as history proves that major geopolitical turnarounds sprout from geopolitical compellance.

'China-India Reset' as a 'Long-Term Strategic Vision' places a heavier load on China's shoulders to restore the 'Strategic Trust' in India marred by China's sordid and acrimonious past of decades since 1962.

India in September 2025, has emerged as a 'Powerful Swing State' whose geopolitical preferences can alter the global balance-of-power. China is aware of this strategic reality and should therefore make concerted efforts to wean away India from the US strategic orbit to the Russia-India-China Orbit.

Concluding, to achieve all of the above, China needs to replace its existing policy mindsets which have impeded good-unneighborly relations with India,namely, (1) Multipolarity is applicable not only at global level but also at the Asia-level (2) India cannot be 'contained' by China by the likes of Pakistan and Bangladesh (2) Boundary dispute cannot continue as an 'Eternal Chinese Damocles Sword' over India (3) China and India in 2025 are 'Near Equals'  in virtually all domains. There is no bandwidth for 'Chinese Exceptionalism' in China-India relations. 

China with its marked adversarial postures that pushed India into a substantive Strategic Partnership with United States. China can now, singularly, cause a realignment of India by jettisoning the above mindsets. 

 

UNITED SATES STARES AT THE EROSION OF ITS SUPERPOWER STATUS IN 2025 DUE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP 2.0 POLICIES

The United States under President Trump 2.0 stares in 2025 at the erosion of its Superpower Status for the first time after the end of World War II which marked its rise to that status.

 American historians would mark 2025 as the inflexion point when the fall of America's imperial sway over global power-play stood hastened by President Trump's policies alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners for short term transactional economic gains.

The decline and fall of the imperial "American Empire" inevitably falls into the mould traced by the famous historian Paul Kennedy in his eminent voluminous Bok: "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers".

United States in 2025 exhibits all symptoms of 'The Rise and Fall of Great Powers'. It would be best to quote verbatim the major observations by Paul Kennedy on the back-cover of his Book which overs a survey from 1500-2000, to highlight in 2025 the reasons which could lead to diminution of United States status as a Superpower. Quotes and my comments thereon.

PAUL KENNEDY'S OBSERVATIONS 

"Although the United States is at present still in a class of its own economically and perhaps even militarily, it cannot avoid confronting the two great tests which challenge the longevity of every major power that occupies the 'number one' position in world affairs: whether, in the military/strategical realm, it can preserve a reasonable balance between the nation's perceived defense requirements and the means it possesses to maintain these commitments; and whether, as an intimately related point, it can preserve the technological and economic bases of its power from relative erosion in the face of the ever-shifting patterns of global production."

COMMENTS

The United States in 2025 global predominance geopolitically, strategically and economically is under siege by the contending rise of Russia and China. Emerging Powers like India with fastest global economic growth rates and a sizeable military machine backed by advanced technologies occupy 'Swing State' status.

Global opposition to United States predominance manifests itself in the emergence of the Russia-China Axis, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the possible revival of the Russia-India- China Trilateral.

PAUL KENNEDY'S OBSERVATIONS

"The test of American abilities will be greater because it, like imperial Spin around 1600 or the British Empire around 1900, is the inheritor of a vast array of strategical commitments which had been made decades earlier, when the nation's political, economic, and military capacity to influence world affairs seemed so much assured."

COMMENTS

In 2025, the United States political, economic and military capacity to influence global power-dynamics stands greatly reduced as compared to its Cold War overall predominance.

The United States today stands challenged not only by the Russia-China Axis, but also by Lesser Power like North Korea and Iran.

In 2025, perceptionally, the United States stands reduced to a 'Fading Superpower' whose President is forced to resort to 'Tariff Wars' bullying of global economies to offset glaring US Trade Deficits.

Perceptively again, the United States as a Superpower "shirks" from applying punitive Tariffs Strikes on Russia and China as applied on its Europea Allies, Pacific Allies, and pivotal Strategic Partners (so far) like India.

PAULKENNEDY'S CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

In consequence, the United States now runs the risk, so familiar to historians of the rise and fall of previous Great Powers, of what might roughly be called 'imperial stretch': that is to say, in Washington must face the awkward and enduring fact that the sum total of the United States' global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country's power to defend them all simultaneously".

COMMENTS

That the United States in 2025 is in the stage of "Imperial Overstretch" would b an understatement. The United States global and regional deployments of the Cold War era sill remain despite the shrinkage of its economic capacity to maintain them.

United States' hitherto for global strategic Managment rested on a system of vibrant and robust military alliances and a spiderweb of bilateral security treaties with its Pacific Allies. Japan and South Korea shouldered heavy costs of 'hosting US Forces.

President Trump, both in his earlier term, and in his preset incumbency, resorted to undue pressures on its NATO Alliance Nations and Pacific Allies for increased defense spending.

 The above obviously arising from United States incapacity and reluctance in 2025 to shoulder the financial burden of maintaining its global commitments of a Superpower.

Does this not reflect, in 2025, the "Erosion of its Superpower Status"? 

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONs

Twenty-five years have passed since Paul Kennedy gave the above valuable insights. Since then, the United States global predominance and its capacity to influence global power dynamics or impose its will on conflictual conflagrations stands greatly curtailed by rise of a multipolar world.

The United States managed to retain its unique Superpower predominance, though with some strain and hiccups, till the Biden Administration. United States diplomatic stances matched the formulations of its National Security Document.

Contentious issues amongst US Allies were sorted out discreetly by discreet diplomacy, outside the public glare, and thereby retaining the overall value and confidence in US global leadership.

In 2025, the blatant bluff and bluster scalding US Allies and Strategic Partners on Trade Tariffs by incumbent President Trump vocally in full public glare is wearing thin not only the trust in US global leadership but also misperceptions that the United States is being reduced toa 'TransactioalPower' minus long term vision.

'Making America Great Again' (MAGA), avowed aim of President Trump, cannot be achieved by alienating US Allies and Strategic Partners who have long contributed to United States retaining its Superpower status.

In the global geopolitical churn, the United States can Ill afford to lose its Allies and Strategic Partners. Options othr than the United States are open to them.