INDIA-ANUSTRALIA 2+2 MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE NOVEMBER 2023 AT NEW DELHI ADDS SALIENCE TO COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

 The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and Australia acquires enhanced salience in November 2023 when analyzed contextually against the failed November outcomes of US-China APEC Sideline Summit between Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping and visit of Australian PM Albanese to China.

Chinese President refused to oblige both United States and Australia on their "expected deliverables" in terms of Indo Pacific Security.

In the last five years strategic, military and economic cooperation between India and Australia has intensified considerably impelled by the increasing belligerence of China in disrupting Indo Pacific security.

China's ever-increasing belligerence in Indo Pacific seriously impacts the legitimate security interests of both India and Australia in the region.

Geopolitically, India and Australia besides their comprehensive bilateral security linkages are intertwined in the multilateral QUAD Security Initiative and jointly cooperating with United States and Japan in capacity-building of Southeast Asia nations like the Philippines to withstand the predatory China Threat.

QUAD Nations are committed to maintain a "Free and Open Indo Pacific both in maritime domains and Overflights" and maintaining stability in the Indo Pacific region.

Geoeconomically, India and Australia to cement their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership have signed a Free Trade Agreement which will take much of the slack of China restricting Australian imports. This FTA gives duty-free access to each other's markets and is a landmark agreement. 

Geo strategically, the enhanced military exchanges between India and Australia need to be viewed in the context of the respective geostrategic weight in Indo Pacific security.

India dominates the India Ocean and with legitimate security interests in Western Pacific. Australia dominates the Southern Pacific and the Eastern Segment of the Indian Ocean. Like India, Australia has legitimate security interests in Western Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Needless to add that the palpable China Threat to India and Australia in their contiguous IndoPacific regions provides strategic convergences for both these Major Indo Pacific nations to forge a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to position an 'Existential Counterweight' to the China Threat, even if not so articulated officially.

The Inda-Australia 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue held in November 2023 ended on optimistic notes indicated by the official statements of both the Indian Ministers and the Australian Ministers,

India was represented by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishankar, Australia was represented by Deputy PM an Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

India and Australia have already signed a Logistics Memorandum of Understanding granting access to each other's logistics facilities to their Navies and Air Forces. Joint military exercises have increased.

A defence Science & Technology Agreement also exists which promotes cooperation in defence technologies with each other.

Notably a Civil Nuclear Agreement permits Australian mining companies to export Uranium to India.

Analytically, it can be assumed that when such proximate Strategic Partnerships are forged and mature, then close cooperation between Intelligence Agencies and intelligence-sharing is a natural outcome. This would be truer in case of intelligence on China.

Superimposed over these are a host of Ministerial Dialogues, consultative mechanisms and increasing people to people contacts. It is reported that the Indian expatriate population in Australia is about a million now.

Contextually therefore, terms of future perspectives, it can be safely asserted that the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and Australia is destined to intensify and deepen with evolving shared perspectives on Indo Pacific security and as Australian and American political and economic outreaches to China are rebuffed. 

Independent of the 'China Factor' there is much that unites India and Australia in terms of shared military history, shared values and democratic institutions and their respective geostrategic and geoeconomic weight.

APEC 2023 SIDELINE SUMMIT OF AMERICAN & CHINESE PRESIDENTS YIELDS N GAME-CAHNGERS ON CONFLICTUAL ISUES

Expectedly, the APEX 2023 Sideline Summit at San Francisco on November 15, between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a tepid Apex Meet, despite nearly a year-long preparatory effort by US Cabinet -level officials.

Noticeably, Chinese President was vocal on Plaet Earth being big enough for both United States and China as Global Powers to coexist and that China was ready to partner with United States.

The above allusion seems to echo what then US President Obama made of a US-China 'Global Dyad', which was globally rejected.

That no major breakthroughs emerged at the Summit on major conflictual issues, reflects the extreme 'Strategic Distrust' that continues to pervade US-China relations.

If the measure of political successes of such Sideline Summits at U-China apex level can only be measured by 'small niblings' then restoration of US-China military ties, Drugs Control cooperation, dialogue on Artificial Intelligence and increase in aviation flights were the only achievement.

Taiwan continues to divide United States and China more intensely as China has intensified military and political coercion. China did not hold out any guarantees that United States desired to lower the brinkmanship.

Some had expected that on South China Sea, some Maritime Control format may emerge. It has not been so.

On the major global crisis in November2023, the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, the United States asked China to prevail over Iran to restrain both Hamas and Hezbollah, both Iran's proxy armed militias.

Similarly, North Korea issue which is major concern for US Allies, Japan and South Korea, no observations were made by the Chinese President at the Summit.

Surprisingly, no reports have emanated whether Russian Invasion of Ukraine, now nearly two years old, was discussed by the two Presidents. Though, the United States has been broaching with China that it was China that is continuing the lifelines for Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The United Staes has not obliged China with any removal of high-technology restrictions which Chinese President did mention during the Summit.

Therefore, the only major takeaway from this Summit can be analyzed as 'Risk Reduction' which would emanate from direct military-to-military contacts and at apex level in terms of crisis.

Concluding, even 'Risk Reduction' having been achieved is debatable, as China by available indicators is in no mood to oblige President Biden in a presidential election year. 

Similarly, US President Biden, with an intensifying 'Hard Line' sentiment against China prevailing in United States across the entire political spectrum, could only indulge in what can best be termed as 'China Management'. No China demanded concessions conceded.

   

SIDELINES SUMMIT BETWEEN US PRESIDENT BIDEN & CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING AT APEC 2023 MEET: PROSPECTS

The APEC Meet underway in San Francisco is being avidly watched as US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to have a Summit Meet on November 15, on the sidelines of this otherwise Asia Pacific economic grouping which has no security component.

In terms of prospects, no major breakthroughs can be expected in the frosty US-China relations now spanning two different US Presidents.

At best, both the American and Chinese Presidents, would strive to restore some normalcy in the tense and conflictual confrontation that exists in the Indo Pacific between a conflictual propensity-prone China and a US-led security architecture checkmating China.

US-China economic relations also are strained by multiple economic sanctions and technology restrictions imposed by United States in response to many Chinese security provocations in Asia Pacific.

Prospective analysis in terms of which of the two Nations---United States or China comes with more strength-full leverages to the Sidelines Summit, one would assert that it is the United States.

The United States displayed that despite its strategic distractions in Ukraine and Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, the United States has the will and strength to play the dominant role in Indo Pacific.

China globally stands in the wrong corner over Ukraine by siding with Russia and so also in the Gaza War by siding with Hamas because of China's security relationship with Iran.

The US economy under President Biden has been resilient whereas the Chinese economy under President Xi Jinping has entered a sluggish curve.

Prospectively therefore, one can expect United States and China to agree to cosmetic changes to restore security and military-to-military communication link;, the United States holding stronger cards will not come out with any game-changer strategic or economic concessions to indulge China.

UNITED STATES-INDIA 2+2 MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE NEW DELHI NOVEMBER 2023 : CAN INDIA MEASURE UP TO AMERICAM EXPECTATIONS?

The 5th US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue due to start on November 10, 2023, acquires significant geopolitical contours when analyzed in context of two ongoing major armed conflicts going on in Ukraine and Gaza in which the United States is involved in a major way.

The United States would expect from India as its "Key Strategic Partner" to adopt more "Key, Notable & Substantive" geopolitical and security postures contributive to US national security interests in the Middle East conflict contingencies. 

Can India with its preferred fixations on multipolarity as a foreign policy precept measure up to United States expectations?

Initially, it needs to be highlighted that the very basis of evolution of the now so-titled and so -evolved over two decades   US-India Global Comprehensive Stategic Partnership is shared strategic convergences on major global issues threatening global and regional security.

Major ongoing armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza War threaten both regional and global security and peace. This strategic reality is not open to differing interpretations.  

Unlike in Ukraine Invasion by Russia, the United States has reacted with major military deployments of US Forces as pre-emptive measures by Iran to escalate and enlarge the war on Israel. The United States is intensely committed to security of Israel.

Iran has merged as a major actor against the United States not only with its nuclear weapons arsenal but also weaponizing Islamist Armed Militias like Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah operating in Southern Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen.

These Iran -controlled Armed Militias are heavily armed and in possession of Rockets arsenals. Hamas and Hezbollah plague Israel security with a Two Front Threat. They also undermine US security interests in Middle East in favor of Iran.

The lurking danger in November 2023 is that Iran may be sucked into escalating this War against Israel and United States, as prospects increase of Hamas being liquidated by Israel.

In the above eventuality, India faces serious policy predicaments which can best be summed-up in the following questions: (1) Can India strategically afford to adopt a neutral stand in an escalated war in which United States could be sucked-in? (2) Is India ready to dispense with its fairly good relationship with Iran drawn into a War with United States and Israel? (3) Would India be in a position to withstand the geopolitical and economic costs of adopting a neutral stance in the event of a Middle East War?

India has unlike the Ukraine Invasion, surprisingly but realistically, taken a clear stand by PM Modi asserting that "India stands with Israel". India has not adopted an ambiguous stand when it came to Israel when contrasted with that of Ukraine.

Therefore, if India has asserted that it stands with Israe and the United State is committed to Isreal's security and existence at all costs, it is logical that India's policy adoptions in event of war in Middle East would be congruent with that of the United States "Short of committing troops on the ground".

The United States on the eve of the Meet has officially declared that it is for India to make its decisions.

Hopefully, India would be able to rise up to United States expectations by fulfilling provisions of all the US-India Defence Arrangements signed like BECA, COMCASA and more notably LEMOA. 

 

 

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC DIMINUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON CHINA'S MILITARY BRINKMANSHIP IN INDO PACIFIC REGION 2023

Russia's strategic diminution in the wake of its stalemated ill-advised invasion of Ukraine can be analyzed as robbing China of much of China's fire-spitting aggressive brinkmanship in Indo Pacific, noticeably evident with Chinese Foreign Minister's dash to Washington and overtures to US for restoration of military ties.

Till last month, all roads led to Beijing with a flurry of visits by top US Biden Administration officials including Secretary of State Blinken and Commerce Secretary to China.

This trend now seems to have been reversed with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi dash to Washington for talks with Secretary of State Blinken and even a brief meet with President Biden.

China has advanced reasons for above as preparatory moves for possible Chinese President Xi Jinping's participation in APEC Summit in San Francisco in November 2023.

Couple of years back, in my South Asia Analysis Papers, I had analyzed how China and Russia as a concretized Russia-China Axis contributed to secure their respective 'rear flanks' in confrontation with United States & Allies.

Firmly believe that in 2023 and beyond, with Russia's strategic diminution and economic sluggishness due to Ukraine war-costs, Russia like yesteryears, stands enfeebled to provide that 'rear-flank' security cover to China's military confrontations with US &Allies/Strategic Partners in Indo Pacific Region, as visible in end-2023.

Resulting from the above, what are China's options in Indo Pacific?

China cannot afford to "lose face" in Indo Pacific by a climbdown in its aggressive confrontation with the United States both for external reasons and more significantly for domestic political reasons.

So how does China script its strategic stances in 2024 and beyond?

In my assessment, China will adopt a two-pronged strategy "copying" United States current China-strategy of operating on two planes. 

China at the global level would like to be perceived as United States 'strategic-equal' by striking reasonable strategic postures with United States and at on a second lower plane resorting to intensification of its military confrontation for 'optical photo-ops' against Japan, India and the Philippines.

Contextually, the above China-perceived strategy is likely to "misfire" when in US strategic circles the majority debate suggest that United States is now capable of "Combatting Two and a Half Military Threats".

This includes dealing with two major threats of Russia and China and a possible military contingency elsewhere.

China much to its regret, has also to factor-in the reality that within the United States there persists bipartisan support for strong and firm US 'Hard Line' policies on China.

The above is conclusively reflected in China-policy assertions made by US Presidential Probables, both Democratic and Republican.

Hence, US Presidential Election year offers no solace to China in terms of US China-policy. China can be expected, however, to resort to Hybrid Warfare strategies within USA as it did in last presidential elections.

China's past historical record illustrates that China will not be deterred by any of the above factors working against it. 

China with a 'Compulsive Reflex Syndrome' can be expected to plunge the Indo Pacific Region in 2024 into more strategic disruptions by aggressive predatory moves!!!